Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

www.marksandspencer.com/kids-wool-embroidered-star-print-beret-3-14-years-/p/p60276119?color=NAVYMIX

No M&S. This is just WRONG.

It's one thing for adults to wear god awful berets. It's another to give children these.

For those of you fed up with all this, Sky are launching a new channel for people who want the news with all the Brexit taken out:

news.sky.com/story/sky-news-brexit-free-new-pop-up-channel-to-launch-tomorrow-at-5pm-11835610

My thought when I heard about the new Sky news channel was slightly different.....

For those of you who want to stick your heads in the sand and think it will then all go away fed up with all this, Sky are launching a new channel for people who want the news with all the Brexit taken out:

News with all the Brexit taken out...

Where's that girl playing noughts and crosses with the clown when you need her?

Re grammar and spelling errors etc on day 1 of my English as a foreign language teaching course we had a long conversation about rules versus usage, accepting that language is ever changing, text speak etc was allowed, communication was the most important thing. Unfortunately, one guy, a somewhat older, traditional student could not cope with this and left the course there and then never to return.

What's the point of a news channel with the news removed?

Why not just watch the Disney Channel and have done with it?

Quite, there is nothing that won't be touched, or merely destroyed, by brexit.

Re grammar and spelling errors etc on day 1 of my English as a foreign language teaching course we had a long conversation about rules versus usage, accepting that language is ever changing, text speak etc was allowed, communication was the most important thing

Unambiguous communication is the important thing.

What's the point of a news channel with the news removed?

Because people who do watch the news are "stopping Brexit" ?

Sebastian Payne@SebastianePayne
How the next 48 hours in Brexit might play out:

Monday 3:30pm: Speaker Bercow announces whether government can hold MV4/5 on the deal. He's expected to say no, as it would be a repeat of Saturday. But if he did, paves the way for a straight up/down vote on Boris' deal.

Monday afternoon: The Withdrawal Agreement Bill (aka the WAB) will be introduced the Commons. It's the crucial huge piece of legislation that implements Brexit in domestic law. Plenty for Eurosceptics and Remainers alike to dig into (h/t @PaulBrandITV)

Monday 3:40pm: Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Commons, will deliver a business statement for the WAB and lay the ground work for a second reading on Tuesday. Not sure what terms will be set out here, which may restrict length of debate etc.

The most critical moment for the government this week is passing that business motion for the WAB. The odds are in its favour. But if it fails then delivering Brexit before an extension and a general election just ain't happening.

Tuesday: Government hopes for vote on 2nd reading of the WAB - a de facto meaningful vote. Our analysis suggests there is a majority of 5 for this.

NB: this can't be amended for a 2nd referendum/customs union, Labour will no doubt try to wreck it with a 'reasoned amendment'

The WAB then heads off to committee stage, when MPs will push towards amendments on second referendum and customs union. Is there a majority for either?

@jburnmurdoch and I are crunching the numbers to examine their chances of it passing. Conclusions coming!

Of course, it’s Brexit and nothing ever goes to plan. But the Johnson government has to win the programme motion and the 2nd reading to have any chance of delivering Brexit by 31 October. Then it’s trench warfare for the third resting and amendments 😬

Dan Hodges @ DPJhodges
If Corbyn abstains on 2nd reading, then fails to amend the WAB, and it passes, Labour will be eaten alive by the LDS in every Remain constituency in the country.

Gordon Rayner @gordonrayner
Brexit latest:

• No10 will pull today's meaningful vote if Bercow allows any amendments
• Govt likely to scrap attempt to get Brexit deal through Parliament if MPs vote for customs union amendment tomorrow
• General election could then follow by end of Nov

Current thinking:

• Bercow won't allow MV4 today
• Plot to keep Britain in customs union likely to fail
• Second referendum vote could be close but likely to fail
• Then it's all about whether short extension needed to get Brexit legislation through
• BUT these are all guesses.

Alain Tolhurst @alain_tolhurst
NEW: Downing St confirm if Bercow selects any amendments to the Meaningful Vote today the Government will immediately pull the motion, and not let it even get to a vote

PLUS: Downing St also hints they will pull the whole Withdrawal Agreement Bill if MPs amend it to add a Customs Union or second referendum clause - saying it would put the ratification process with the EU in doubt

As Eats Shoots and Leaves so eloquently demonstrated
it is possible to express oneself clearly while being grammatically incorrect.
But one is more likely to get the intended point across if the grammar is correct.
If the point is clear, correcting the grammar is just pedantry.
But if correcting the grammar would help the person make their point, then it is rude not to do it.
IMHO

Well.

Oh, if only the Opposition could have settled on a GNU Leader.

We'd be discussing a PV now.
🤷‍♀️

So....
Still up shit creek then?

On the Scottish Court case

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
Worst possible result for government

Court not provoked into ruling side letter unlawful, no Supreme Court drama

Poor Dom

#Padfield rule applied

But live case will continue to ensure government does not frustrate Benn Act before 31 October

And

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
Dom wanted to provoke a Supreme Court dramatic challenge

See the heavy briefing to reporters on Saturday night

He failed

And not only did he fail, the court's continuation of the case now v unhelpful to the government

Poor Dom

Utter backfire

This is just so funny, sorry

Kuenssberg:
"easily heading again to Supreme Court"

Shipman:
"They fully expect to go to court"

Peston:
"He expects to see MPs in court."

All correct reporting (no criticism here intended)

But utter flop

Government lawyers knew what they were doing, and so did Scottish court

You see, the Padfield principle is so well established, a skilled government lawyer can write a Padfield-compliant side letter (of political waffle), and that will in turn be seen as such by a judge

No need to go to Supreme Court

So:

No court order "forcing" Number 10 to comply with Benn Act

Just government's own averments

No dramatic Supreme Court clash

But continued Scottish court supervision of any attempts to frustrate Benn Act

All because of needless threat to break Act

Classic Dom

Oh, if only the Opposition LibDems could have settled on Corbyn as a GNU Leader.

We'd be discussing a PV now.

There you go cat fixed it for you

Paul Brand@paulbranditv
Gauging support amongst MPs, there will be 3 crucial amendments this week as it stands. In order of the threat they pose to the PM, they are:

1. Remove the No Deal ‘trapdoor’ at end of transition period

2. Customs Union

3. Second referendum

1. This is the greatest threat because we might assume everyone who voted for Letwin amendment on Sat will also vote for trapdoor amendment, because both seek to remove the risk of a No Deal Brexit. But can ERG support a deal which doesn’t allow No Deal at end of transition?

2. This could be close-run, but at the moment seems ambitious. Labour will back it, SNP might back it this time, some Labour rebels who back PM’s deal will also back it, but previous Tory supporters appear to be peeling away and Lib Dems/DUP unlikely to back it.

3. Second referendum seems the least likely of the three amendments to pass as things stand today. It still doesn’t have enough support on Tory benches and DUP won’t back it. But doesn’t mean it won’t look like an option if 1 or 2 pass and PM’s deal begins to collapse/we’re stuck

What all three amendments illustrate is the sheer fragility of the coalition the PM has put together. If any of them pass, he loses ERG. If 1 doesn’t pass, he may lose MPs who won’t countenance No Deal etc. This is why govt didn’t want to get into the detail until a MV had passed

Of course other amendments may emerge in the course of the week and support may shift and change once the Withdrawal Agreement Bill is published this evening and MPs see the detail. But this is a snapshot of where we stand at the moment.

Silly question alert - if the Motion/Bill are both pulled, what next?

Justanother
Were you there on Saturday?
Did you hear the chants of Where's Jeremy Corbyn?
He cannot unify his own party, let alone the nation.

I was walking with some diehard Labour members who are livid that their 2017 vote was treated as being pro Brexit.
They will not vote Labour again till he's gone.

As Eats Shoots and Leaves so eloquently demonstrated it is possible to express oneself clearly while being grammatically incorrect.

And as Google (other shit implementations of AI are available) so ineloquently demonstrate, there's more to language than just spotting words in a sentence.

No one who claims their system has "AI" has ever demonstrated that to me.

I think I posted a while back that attempts to use "machine learning" (aka artificial stupidity) to police Facebook postings immediately resulted in postings from African Americans being deleted as "offensive" ...

This is the only whisper I've heard on this...

Joe Owen @jl_owen
So while the focus on the WAB will inevitably be on the timelines, amendments on CU and transition etc,

There are some things that are significant that will likely not get much attention.

The first is "the independent monitoring authority on citizens rights"

The IMA will be a new UK public body. It will oversee the UK Government's implementation of the citizens rights part of the deal.

The Home Office really didn't want it. But stories about nightmares with permanent residence & then Windrush meant EU pushed hard for oversight.

The IMA could be a major benefit for @the3million

Powers in WAB will tell us whether UK Government has given it necessary teeth and whether it can deal with more than just specific cases - looking at systemic problems with the scheme.

We @instituteforgov have argued that MPs should consider making the IMA responsible for more than just Settled Status.

It could cover more of the immigration system, providing greater scrutiny of why we keep getting stories about poor decision making.

This could prove to be a very important new institution that helps scrutiny and oversight of migration.

But is likely to be a footnote in the debates this week...

Unambiguous communication is the important thing.

Noted DGR. And I agree.