Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

I know the WAIB has to pass to avoid No Deal, but why does it matter so much if a CU is in it ?

You've nearly got it BCF.

The issue with the customs union is optics for a GE.

If the Conservatives look to have settled for membership of the CU it blows the party apart (the ERG will never stand for it) and is a gift to the Brexit Party.

If the WAB passes it ups the stakes and desire for a GE too

Remember the QS as well. Traditionally if the QS fails then the PM resigns and opposition puts a Vonc to the house. If the QS fails (as we expect especially with the DUP now a loose canon due to the 'betrayal agreement' as it's being called in some unionist circles) that puts immense pressure on Corbyn to call one. Alternatively someone else (the DUP?) could call a Vonc and Corbyn and Swinson (and the rest of the opposition coalition) have to pick a position...

What the EU do is important in this context too. And timing.

The EU won't decide on extension until there is clarity over where the WA and WAB are at (so no decision before weds at least)

Vonc wasn't going to happen until after extension agreed but we now have the DUP factor. (that'd be fun... If it came before 31st Oct)

Or the WAIB which is just UK law implementing the WA

Bigchoc I think maybe he knew that it wouldn't succeed, because until he had actually written the latter (that evening), there just wasn't the trust that he'd actually comply and ask for an extension, so people wouldn't support him until after.

It's a massive gamble, Snowy.

But, should the PV amendment pass, it makes it very hard for Johnson to then block it or drop the WA.

And, if a CU alienates the ERG, Johnson May need Labour support to get WAB passed.

And, of course, if the Deal is so good, and not simply about placating his shady mates and holding the Conservative Party together, why wouldn't Johndon want to pass his WAN?

red I had wondered if it was just posturing for a GE, but that seems so silly, with what's at stake for the country
OK, they are irresponsible. I should have known

The VoNC risk is scary, if Corbyn is tempted

Also, once the Letwin bill had passed, the govt couldn't undo that, so why not swallow pride, go to division and get the WA passed ?

The million dollar question.

Lewis Goodall said he asked about this around Westminster and got the universal reply that not just going for the vote was a tactical error by the government.

But as Alex Wickham points out the optics of Bercow 'blocking' a second attempt of the WA plays good optics for a parliament v people narrative ahead of a GE.

Yes. I think you're right factoring in the HE, Red.

I think we can't underestimate how much of this madness is all about a GE for Johnson.

Which is shocking short-term isn.

I'm assuming / hoping that Corbyn will whip to abstain on any VoNC, until No Deal is impossible before a GE
i.e. at least wait until the EU agrees to an extension, if they do and if it's long enough to ensure a GE first

I had wondered if it was just posturing for a GE, but that seems so silly, with what's at stake for the country
OK, they are irresponsible. I should have known

I know its late in Germany... So I won't remind you that the PM is Johnson and we should be getting used to his gambling by now

BJ is playing silly buggers so much, we could yet have an accidental No Deal

I honestly think a lot of what Johnson does is messy, strategy wise but he and Ing's are OK at tactics - or putting a spin on their fuck ups.

BUT the reason the tactics are 'good' is because they have a shockingly - really shockingly - enabling media.

🤷‍♀️

I am desperately hoping we avoid a GE. 🤷‍♀️

I'm assuming / hoping that Corbyn will whip to abstain on any VoNC, until No Deal is impossible before a GE

Thats my assumption.

But we still have the optics of a possible Vonc started by the DUP trying to make a point.

Even abstaining could look bad for Labour in the run up to a GE.

The chances of a Vonc (or another) shortly after 1st November also are raised if we have a technical extension for the WA to pass (particularly if the WAB has passed).

I honestly think a lot of what Johnson does is messy, strategy wise but he and Ing's are OK at tactics - or putting a spin on their fuck ups.

BUT the reason the tactics are 'good' is because they have a shockingly - really shockingly - enabling media.

Spot on.

Thanks to everyone for trying to explain the manoeuvring. Once you realise Brexit is now just a vehicle for the general election and therefore the next 5 years, it all makes much more sense.

I think Johnson has underestimated his opponents. The DUP will be out for blood after the NI U-turn and it puts him at a disadvantage if he needs allies in a hung Parliament or leading another minority Government. Hence why he is desperate for a reasonable majority.

He does not think about the country at all. Our lives are just scenery to him.

Remember how people thought May's Brexit negotiations couldn't possibly be as shit as they appeared to be - and thought there must be more to it than met the eye?

And it turned out she was just as narrow and stiff and hopeless as she appeared?

I think the same is happening with Cummings and Johnson.

Nobody can believe he can be as lazy, opportunist and crap as he appears. There had to be a cunning and genius plan.

There isn't. Sadly, the media fill in the fuck ups with their hopes.

And they will end up enabling a bell snd into another term of office.

And they will foist on us a WA that has been laughed at as a complete routing of the UK across Europe.

We don't want a GE just yet.... God help us if Johnson gets a majority.

He's already a liability without one.

He does not think about the country at all. Our lives are just scenery to him.

Yes.☹️

The loose canon:

Harry Yorke @harryyorke1
New: Senior DUP figure tells Telegraph the party could back a customs union amendment to the WAB in order to ensure whole of the U.K. leaves EU under same customs arrangements.

Party will discuss issue over next 24-48 hours, I’m told.

Another DUP figure says they’ll unleash “guerilla warfare” in Parliament to block the Brexit deal unless Boris Johnson goes back to Brussels and addresses their concerns.

Says party is looking at multiple options this week.

This could end badly for No.10.

DUP maybe, Labour on board and several independent and former Tories could also back customs union. SNP and Lib Dems expected to discuss tomorrow.

If it goes through the PM could be forced to pull the bill.

Blimey, Red, your post about VONC is sobering and depressing.

Thank you for answering everyone's questions @RedToothbrush, I think I get how everything pieces together now and it's like I've just had that light bulb moment!

btw, side issue:

That push by the ERG to criminalise British citizens who hinder govt talks abroad

• would that affect Brit expats who demonstrate against BJ or govt ministers who are trying to negotiate?

If so, I'll still demonstrate if they come near Frankfurt; I just won't visit Britain again !
(No problem as my UK family & friends have died out)

Exciting about demanding BJ return to Brussels - that's only necessary for legally binding stuff
V risky though, as BJ might prefer No Deal

Once you realise Brexit is now just a vehicle for the general election and therefore the next 5 years, it all makes much more sense

It alarms me that the media aren't driving this home and instead are indulging it.

Saw this earlier

www.facebook.com/scientistsforeu/photos/rpp.642444842524195/2069774639791201/?type=3&theater

Maybe they should stay there.