Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

^push by the ERG to criminalise British citizens who hinder govt talks abroad

• would that affect Brit expats who demonstrate against BJ or govt ministers who are trying to negotiate?^

Doesn't matter what the intention was. They don't have a majority to pass it, at least this side of a GE and if they do get a majority in a GE they won't need such a law.

This is just more electioneering rather than having any meaningful substance whatsoever.

As for Caroline Flint ...

Well, I like chocolate and cake, but I'm apparently at risk of developing diabetes.

My GP told me that.

And however much I wimble about my love of sweet food, she takes her responsibilities seriously and doesn't enable me in self-destructive behaviour.

Thank God she's not one of the Caroline Flints of this world.

*Once you realise Brexit is now just a vehicle for the general election and therefore the next 5 years, it all makes much more sense

It alarms me that the media aren't driving this home and instead are indulging it.*

Totally, totally agree.

What the hell has gone wrong with our media?

The govt really are ordering investigations into opposing MPs - we must pay more attention to this classic tactic of authoritarian regimes

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/diplomats-accuse-no-10-putting-20660204.amp?

Senior diplomats have accused the government of “putting lives at risk” over shadowy briefings accusing opposition MPs of “colluding with foreign powers” for criticising Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy.

Two senior figures representing Britain abroad have told the Mirror
they will launch complaints this week over briefings from inside No 10
which suggested the government might attempt to seize MPs email and phone records.

Yesterday Tory MPs announced they would introduce a new law that would see any British citizen who undermines Government negotiations abroad face jail in the wake of Boris Johnson's humiliation.

It comes after a senior No 10 source said told the Mail on Sunday that
the government was working on "extensive investigations into Dominic Grieve, Oliver Letwin and Hilary Benn
and their involvement with foreign powers and the funding of their activities".

They added that the government "will demand the disclosure of all details of their personal communications with other states".

But the accusation - which all three MPs strenuously deny - sent shockwaves through Britain's diplomatic networks.

One official told the Mirror:
“This is a witchhunt and it risks undermining the work we do abroad telling foreign governments not to prosecute, jail and harass opposition politicians who disagree with them.

"It cuts against more than 50 years of British foreign policy and it will put lives at risk.”

A second official confirmed that staff in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office were incandescent over anonymous briefings from No 10.

“Threatening MPs with investigation is something you would expect the government to be stopping abroad, not encouraging at home, ”

By the way, has anyone been following Brexit messaging?

I have.

And I've noticed it really is ... dumb.

And I mean that. I'm not doing the thing of accusing Leavers of being stupid. I mean the messaging is consciously really stupid-sounding.

It reduces complex situations to a sort of: 'He complained that I was parked in a disabled parking bay, so I rammed his car. Cost me £2,000 to fix my car - but it was worth it,' kind of situation.

Really.

I'm going to have to find and post some examples - and you can all say what you think.

But it's something I've really noticed so often now, I know it can't be coincidence, or chance - it's a well thought-out strategy.

And the other thing that makes me think it's conscious is that it seems to be mirrored in Johnson's actions.

For example, this whole WA non-vote.

The Numbers 10 source' said the Conservative front bench would walk out if Letwin passed.

Well, they didn't do that - but they did something equally stupid.

"if they do get a majority in a GE they won't need such a law."

I'm assuming after a GE & Brexit that even a Tory govt would be trying to negotiate a future trade deal with the EU

I would demonstrate if they visit near me.
Regardless
The German police won't take my details; a good EU paint job & cap should block facial recognition software

That is just terrible.

And I think it's

A.) more 'traitors' stuff

And

B.) deflection from the fact that Johnson really is being investigated over the Arcuri stuff, with it's links to collusion with foreign powers.

It's just setting for to 'normal' politics and governance, isn't it?

This would have been unthinkable even 5 years ago.
☹️

The media really need to stop with briefings from an senior number 10 source too.

It also stresses those MPs further, at a critical time
and may discourage ex-Tory rebels from voting the wrong way

What the hell has gone wrong with our media?

Money. No sense of public role, service or duty. Just money. Isn't the world better that way, or so our politicians have been telling us for some time.

BCF...

Darvo I expect. There's a thread on twitter tonight by @nicktolhurst which I can't decide as to its reputability but I suspect is more likely to be right than wrong.

It's trumpian to get in first to protect by attacking... Rather than likely to go anywhere.

It's about warning off awkward questions...

Totally agree, BigChoc.

I just don’t see how a CU amendment stands a chance....

Whereas there a probably a majority of MPs who could vote for a deal with a CU in the right circumstances, a large number of these would come from the Tory benches, and very significant numbers would have to break with the party line to ensure a majority (and there’s less than zero chance BJ would change to adopt it as the party line!)

They just won’t do that as it would be utterly calamitous for the Tory Party, split it down the middle, and destroy their GE chances at a stroke.

If forced, the Tories - including most of the rebels - will prefer a GE to this.

BCF about the accusations - more spin to support “parliament against the people”. Taxpayers money being spent on these investigations too?

It's presumably / hopefully police investigations and not intelligence services
Any investigations are by the state, funded by tax-payers against govt opponents

*Once you realise Brexit is now just a vehicle for the general election and therefore the next 5 years, it all makes much more sense

It alarms me that the media aren't driving this home and instead are indulging it.*

Now I feel the stupid one. Amazingly I've been keeping up so far. How is the media indulging this?

I understand that the tabloids and the Telegraph etc must be doing this - but the Guardian/Independent seem ok to me. Aren't they? And even the BBC. It annoys me a lot, but then I remember that they have to listen to both sides and feel that they try to.

I realise I'm not getting this. Can someone please explain?

Kantar Poll
10-15 Oct fieldwork

www.kantar.com/public/download/documents/296/Oct-19+Brexit+Barometer+tables.pdf

Still cake !

(p95-98) 🤦🏻‍♀️
34% say EU citizens should have unrestricted right to live in UK
54% say UK citizens should unrestricted right to live in EU

Westminster voting intentions (Kantar usually v tory)

39% CON
25% LAB
18% LDEM
8% BXP

Dusty

Circulation of (some) national newspapers

The Sun 1.4 million
The Daily Mail 1.2 million
The Times 417 thousand
The Daily Telegraph 360 thousand
The Daily Express 321 thousand

The Daily Mirror 508 thousand
The Guardian 141 thousand
The I. 230 thousand
The Independent n/a

I've rounded down the figures and the independent figures aren't available. My source is Wikipedia for average in 2019. It's an incomplete list but you get the message. Obviously, things are harder to track with papers being online compared to the old days of hard copies of newspapers.

Clearly, leave daily newspapers have vastly higher average circulation to remain newspapers.

(Hopefully I've correctly represented which are remain and leave)

Here's the table I took the info from:-

Did I copy correctly?

I think the numbers are more likely to be there for the CU amendment than the PV one. But Labour has to bring the latter as it's now their policy.

The LDs and SNP need to look at what's possible right now, not the unicorn they'd prefer (revoke) and vote accordingly (as well as to keep the pressure on the government).

Is today mostly about the WA being refused by Bercow with the substantive WAIB stuff tomorrow? Is there anything more substantive today?

It looks like the government would have been better off avoiding a QS until after the extension deadline set by the Benn Act.

I can't work out if this is all some elaborate plan, or if they're now up to plan B(2), having already been through the alphabet.

I just think it's really risky to have a GE where there's been a deal available but not taken as that will enrage some leavers. But will also be ammo for the BXP in exploiting how useless the BJ government has been at leaving (or the Tories in general, in fact).

I'd forgotten those April 17 opinion polls with the 20 point Tory lead though. So they know that the figures we're seeing don't really mean they'll walk it.

All in all, I've finally worked out what happened this weekend (that Lewis Goodall Twitter thread was great!) but I am going to fail at predicting anything beyond what will happen in my own day today!

Yesterday Tory MPs announced they would introduce a new law that would see any British citizen who undermines Government negotiations abroad face jail in the wake of Boris Johnson's humiliation.

Is that not straight out of a fully authoritarian regime?
I would be wondering g when the ‘negotiations abroad’ would disappear from the ‘law’ To become simply ‘any citizen who undermines the Government should be out in prison’.
It reminds me of the days if the USSR, dissidents etc...

Yes.

Now is probably a good moment to pause and reflect on how far we've travelled with Brexit.

Maybe look at some papers from five years ago. Compare.

This is what ' recut' has done.

Things that were unimaginable five years ago are now our daily reality.