Westministenders: Slow News Fake News

[RedToothBrush]

Things have been slow whilst we are in proroguation, ahead of next weeks Queen's Speech and the EU summit.

We've been in full spin mode, from the likes of the far right and an unnamed source at No.10.

People seem to be waking up to the reality that its highly unlikely we will get a deal now, unless something significant. And No.10 has worked out the NI problem. FINALLY.

Anyway, if you have a little time this week and you are interested in the history of where technology change and fake news meet and how where we are now is merely things repeating themselves, Ian Hislop's Fake News: A True History, is essential viewing.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00095hv/ian-hislops-fake-news-a-true-history

I really feel strongly this is stuff that should be being taught in schools somehow as its what protects us from extremism.

I’ve been out of the loop the last few days and now catching up.

So, BJ and Leo are saying things are looking promising with their new plan but there’s no detail yet? If they come up with a plan that deals (somehow) with the GFA, is it actually likely they’ll get a majority through the Commons next week?!

The WA took months of finalising and I thought it couldn’t be changed. Are we now thinking that a new deal can be agreed and signed off with all countries concerned being happy by the end of the month let alone be voted through by MPs?

Apologies if I’m confused and have got it wrong!

I don't think there is any plan. From anyone except maybe the EU. They're all thrashing around in the dark trying desperately to keep things going today, tomorrow, maybe next week.

Thanks for the earlier answer RedToothBrush

When will we know the outcome of the breakfast meeting in Brussels?

What solution on the Irish border would be acceptable?

Brexitcast last night was interesting but for all the wrong reasons. Firstly, one of the UK side (can't remember if it was Laura or the bloke) laid all the praise for this 'deal' at Johnson's feet because he is so extraordinarily charismatic in person.
They then questioned whether it truly was one on one as there were photos of Johnson and Varadkar having discussions and walking in the grounds, to which Katya observed something about photographers getting all sorts of unexpected shots the subjects are unaware of, "including one of Boris and his girlfriend on a park bench"

Hit post too soon.
a) did she mean Laura or Carrie?
b) I despair of BBC journalism. Johnson's 'charm' such as it may be, is no replacement for basic competence.

Sitting here watching a chat between Ed Milliband and Alstair Cambell, it;s from 2018 but its made me feel so much anger that Ed wasnt given a fair run because of the MSM, this country is fucked because of the MSM

@fedup21 not a solution but calling it by the wrong term solves nothing. It would be a british border in Ireland, not an Irish border.

Foldyroll I think they meant the staged photo of Johnson and Carrie on a pub garden type bench that went viral with silly memes after the police incident at her flat.

I'm afraid I agree with Queenofthorns pessimism. I do not see any happy ending for the people on the island of Great Britain if this new version passes.
'hoping' it eventually leads to a soft brexit or that there won't be the number to pass the eventual FTA with the U.S is not enough to risk our rights, standards and security.
The opposition will not be involved in negotiations- they haven't been so far. If the EU will not let Boris have his divergence on standards and rights then he will simply shrug his shoulders, point the finger of blame at them and leave the transition period without a deal.
He will not have spent the intervening months between now and then preparing for that.

If there is a deal, especially if it's supposed to be approved by 31 October,
then it probably just involves a few minor changes to one of the alternative WA drafts Barnier has ready in his cellar.

Hence, I expect it'll have the main points of May's WA, but with an NI-only backstop, which will stay for a fixed period,
after which NI as a whole - not just the DUP - will be allowed in some way to vote on whether they wish to end the backstop.

So, in effect, a permanent backstop,
as the Nationalist community / their politicians are most unlikely to agree to leave the EU's SM to be solely in the UK's SM.

3 hurdles:

1. The UK govt and the EU agreeing they have the basis for a deal
2. Still agreeing once all details have been worked out and the WA is in legal text, no weasel words by BJ allowed
3. Gaining approval of the HoC

If the EU will not let Boris have his divergence on standards and rights then he will simply shrug his shoulders, point the finger of blame at them and leave the transition period without a deal.

The bigger problem is if Boris has decided he can treat the EU with the same contempt as the UK parliament, and sign up to a deal in the safe knowledge he has no intention whatsoever of honouring it.

After all, if he's willing to dare the Queen to sack him, he's hardly going to worry about breaking a treaty with Johnny Foreigner.

Nikka Da Costa still working...

She has tweeted that she is.

And I don't think opinions will be allowed to shift during transition (and even if they did - that would not effect Boris' negotiating - he is in hock to people who want to lower standards and rights). Opinion has already shifted - but you would never guess that from the media. The transition period will be packed with stories of how - even though we;re out of the EU - the evil EU still insists on calling the shots, and telling us what rights and standards we need to have. and the frothy no dealers will lap it up. And they are the only people being shown because they are supporting what the disaster capitalists who own Boris want. So they will continue to believe they are a majority - and Boris will be able to keep pointing to them to prove he's doing what 'the people' want.

This isn't going to let the air out of the balloon slowly. It will keep up the pressure - especially if walking away at the end of 2020 is the true goal.

3) Gaining approval of the HoC

Is that not a major hurdle?

The bigger problem is if Boris has decided he can treat the EU with the same contempt as the UK parliament, and sign up to a deal in the safe knowledge he has no intention whatsoever of honouring it.

Well quite.

He's probably already telling the ERG that it's OK they can vote for the new W.A because he had his fingers crossed behind his back the whole time.

If the ERG agree to vote for it, it will probably go through.
If the ERG agree to vote for it - then we will know - too late- just how bad for us they intend it to be.

pretzels Depends who forms the next govt

A BJ working majority is far from a certainty after a GE

A hung Parliament is not going to allow the Uk to just leave and won't pass any likely US FTA
They'll keep getting extensions - the EU will be happy to amend any WA to keep doing this

imo, opinion will be much easier to change after Brexit, because most Leavers - not the fanatics - will be reasonably satisfied their vote has been respected
That takes the political heat down a good notch

I'd imagine that many, many leave voters will pay fuck all attention to what happens post-Brexit.

And, if BoZo and crew look like taking us up shit creek, well the VoNC is still an option.

If the modified WA contains the level playing field terms of May's WA - and I'd be astonished if the EU give up that red line -
then that limits what regs the Tory can remove

Workers rights, consumer rights, environmental regs etc would have to stay at the EU minimum level,
regardless of what the Tories may want to do.

fedup21 - there seem to be a few Labour MPs who are being conned by BJ and just want to get the willy of the people done (and don't give a fuck about NI), like Caroline Flint . And then there's the DUP MP in all but name Kate Hoey

So they may well have the numbers.

There is a hardcore part of the ERG who just want No Deal
and many other ERG members like Gove who don't
plus at least 100 moderate Tories who don't

There may be more Tories in favour of this WA than May's, just because it comes from a Leaver,
but we don't know if that will be enough votes.

Posters here will know, but it's less understood in the public, that whatever the score with this development ... even if it does lead to some sort of accord that gets HoC approval and prevents a no-deal crash out ...

IT'S ONLY THE START

The UK will then begin a process of having to address every single aspect of EU membership - all the regulatory bodies, all the policy bodies and each trade sector on a one-by-one basis. Each individual case presents an opportunity for disagreement, horse trading, and years of arguing.

Rinse and repeat.

It will continue to jam up parliament and government time for years. It will almost certainly span the lives of more than one government and encounter issues and problems that aren't visible or known about right now.

By the time it's "finished" most people will have forgotten what it was supposed to be at the beginning.

And it won't just be UK governments that will change while it's happening. We'll see a US presidential election, various elections in EU member states. Elections in countries we want to do deals with.

And that's my take as a non-expert. Godonlyknows what I've left out.

If you wanted to always be at war with Eurasia, it's hard to think of a better vehicle to drive ....

If the backstop remains, that does protect NI
No Deal would be bad enough for GB, but even more disastrous for NI. Horrendous prospect.

The backstop would give NI big economic advantages: frictionless trade with both the EU and UK.

Depending on the next GE and HoC makeup, I wonder if NS would be able to leverage similar advantages for Scotland

So Bernier has given the green light to further negotiations.