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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Tory Party Spectacular

985 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2019 17:41

A row over parliamentary language and conduct and how MPs are afraid of extremists has over shadowed talk of Brexit.

Cummings has said if you don't want to leave without a deal, vote for a deal.

Yet there isn't a Johnson approved one in front of the Commons and the EU are utterly despairing of Johnson's blank non papers and his full on Trump bullshit.

Then there's the threats to the rule of law.

Apparently there are five known suggestions to bypass the Benn Act and refuse to ask for an extension.
See Twitter Thread Here

This weekend sees the start of the Tory Party Conference. With a parliamentary vote to block a recess, its rather scuppered plans for the rest of the conference. Johnson's planned speech at the conference clashes with PMQ so he may well not attend the Commons.

Expect the conference to be.... Er... Inflammatory...

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PerkingFaintly · 30/09/2019 00:04

RTB, that is fascinating about the Brexit Party MEPs' other earnings.

Four times as much, on average? That's a huge discrepancy.

tobee · 30/09/2019 00:08

Thank you for the book rec Dried; I've now put that in my amazon wish list. Smile

Basilpots · 30/09/2019 00:15

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0g33aqxx5k/TheTimes_190925_VI_w.pdf

Data sheets. his personal ratings aren’t anywhere as amazing as they would have you believe.

Also shows leave voters less likely to vote.

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2019 00:22

How can someone be a “don’t know” and simultaneously a “Labour or LD voter”?

They categorise people based on their last vote.

Traditionally between elections the rate of 'don't know' is much higher amongst women than men.

This is significant in polling: most polls automatically discount don't knows.

Pollsters try and weight accordingly for sex, but this is a tricky art. It's only in the run up to a GE that more serious attention is paid to the don't knows and pinning down exactly how they will vote (we aren't at that stage yet BTW)

Thus much of the art of trying to work out accurate polling is working out what the don't knows will do.

This is really important to understand when you read polls. Generally speaking women are more likely to lean left, so polls with high don't know rates run the risk of overstating the right wing vote.

Given how things stand, this is a particularly important factor right now.

It's to be expected that women are going to be particularly targeted at the next GE.

This is both to attract their vote and to try and demoralise women from voting at all. (this is also why the trans issue is a really big issue - to attract voters and to depress voters).

I've not checked in a while but the Don't Know Rate amongst women had been running at around 15% to 20% of all women since the last GE. For men it was around the 10% mark.

It's something I have not thought to have a look at in a while, so I might take a look this week if I get a chance to see if there is something going on with the figures.

I also note that one criticism of a recent Lord Ashcrofts poll was how it wasn't following polling basics in weighting, and that men were significantly over represented which would naturally give a much more right wing distortion than the population as a whole.

Just something to keep in mind when you see polling.

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RedToothBrush · 30/09/2019 00:24

Four times as much, on average? That's a huge discrepancy.

Hardly fits with party of the people does it?

More party for the super rich. Who might not like taxation law very much.

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Basilpots · 30/09/2019 00:36

Please do Red it’s really, really important especially if we are going the ‘Trump’ route. We’ve already got complaints about Johnson’s unwanted touching being written off as ‘politically’ motivated. Err no it’s an abuse of power and/or the actions of a dirty old man take your pick. Which I bet nearly every women on here has endured at some point in their life.

I tried to look at them (the data sheets). but I’ve never even looked at a polling data sheet until this year. I’ve just blindly accepted what I have been told. I am much more critical now thanks to you guys Red and BCF plus all you other ace posters. Even if I don’t agree with you it makes me think.

mathanxiety · 30/09/2019 00:42

www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cavan-priest-told-to-watch-yourself-after-condemning-kevin-lunney-attack-1.4034485

Priest speaks out against sustained violence/intimidation that has been going on in the Cavan/Fermanagh area in the context of the Lunney beating. Has apparently been told to 'watch himself'.

He is clearly not naming names but saying what must be a majority opinion.

The claim is that Sean Quinn, former owner of Quinn Industrial Holdings, who lost everything in Ireland's banking debacle, has been seeking revenge on Lunney, who bought QIH after the collapse, or trying to influence decisions wrt QIH, with tactics escalating.

Not anything to do with any terrorist group, allegedly. Just common or garden criminality.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 30/09/2019 00:59

Red I know we disagreed on this yesterday but I really do think there is a drip feed of briefing against BJ by his own side. The Tories are ruthless in protecting the party over the leader.

The Sunday Times article mentioned that John Major would not have intervened in the SC without the tacit approval of the Palace. He is the last PM to have received the Order of the Garter and was an advisor to William and Harry.

mathanxiety · 30/09/2019 01:03

It doesn't do to "surrender" before you've started. Who'd have thought Finland would hold the might of the entire Red Army to a defeat in 1940?
DGR

The Red Army leadership had recently been decimated by Stalin (1937 purges). It was in no position to fight anyone. This was amply demonstrated by Finland in 1939-40 and also during the first months of Operation Barbarossa in 1941.

...........
On the topic of Ballymena, the Paras, control on the ground, deliberate policy vs breakdowns in communications, etc, has anyone ever heard of the Black and Tans and the dreaded Auxiliary Division?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_Tans

You have to wonder how much defamation, how many accusations of chaos on the ground a military force will put up with before it begins to ask what side Parliament and the commanding officers are on.

JeSuisPoulet · 30/09/2019 01:04

Funny as Quinn is the surname of the hospital developer I mentioned earlier...must be a coincidence, no? He lives in Kent though (no idea what he looks like). Must sleep!

JeSuisPoulet · 30/09/2019 01:10

Quick google and it doesn't look like a relative. Thought it might be as this one is notorious for funding sports - i.e rugby clubs whilst doing huge luxury builds nearby (usually on a wildlife reserve or similar) then making sure all of the rugby lads turn up to shout and and jeer anyone who stands up to counter them at meetings Hmm. Lovely chap, article I just read says he is a 'keen philanthropist' because 6k out of 25k houses he built have been "affordable housing" Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2019 01:29

Math When there was that AÌBU thread on who was responsible for the Troubles,
I was staggered at the ignorance - on a site of women with above average education - about what England / Britain has done to Ireland over the centuries and even in the 20th century

I don't know how that knowledge was lost.

Growing up in the 1960s and early 1970s, we seemed to absorb a lot of history of the earlier 20th century - including Ireland and the Black & Tans - by a kind of osmosis
in that ordinary adults around us would discuss what was recent history to them, or what their parents had told them
and such history would be referred to in newspapers articles and on TV discussions

The TV, even with only 3 channels, also had brilliant looong historical doocumentary series such as the outstanding "World at War"

2oth century wasn't in the history syllabus, so we never formally were taught any of this

mathanxiety · 30/09/2019 01:47

BigChocFrenzy Sun 29-Sep-19 16:41:28
An authoritarian regime would go to the army, heavy weapons and tanks.

I doubt it.

Even if the government learned nothing about international opprobrium from the experience of NI, they have surely been paying attention to the outsourcing of war and the imprisonment of babies and little children by the US in recent times.

I suspect they would be far more likely to contract out all of the business of heavy handed policing. There are lots of companies with names that sound like investment firms that provide 'security' services.

The American Blackstone springs to mind. Not sure if it's still called that.

Immigrant detention centres in the UK are already run by private services: G4S, Mitie, Serco and (US-owned) GEO Group.

The beauty of using mercenaries is that they are accountable to nobody and can even be owned by holding companies if desired, so very hard to trace.

mathanxiety · 30/09/2019 02:02

Johnson is still more popular than Corbyn. It can only be his fixtation with Brexit that excuses so much.

It's because he is such a Lad, such a scofflaw, such a True Brit.

Such a 'character'.

And because many people like to identify with what they have been brought up to believe are their betters.

It's nothing to do with Brexit apart from the fact that Brexit provides a handy backdrop for the Lad /scofflaw / John Bull persona to take centre stage and perform.

mathanxiety · 30/09/2019 02:22

No, I think it's the right-wing press's successful demonization of Corbyn as a Communist terrorist sympathiser.

And this ^^

tobee · 30/09/2019 03:44

Interesting to see that on sky news app right now we have the headline about the chancellor's "infrastructure revolution". But, on opening the article, it says quote:

"The chancellor's infrastructure spending spree - aimed at diverting attention from criticism of Boris Johnson on Brexit and his friendship with an American businesswoman"

I think that's quite tellingly phrased.

borntobequiet · 30/09/2019 05:25

Wonderful word, scofflaw. So appropriate for BJ! (The only other place I’ve encountered it is in books by Sue Grafton, but I assume it’s more common in the US than here.)

Rhubarbisevil · 30/09/2019 06:14

Boris is more John Bullshit, I think.

NoWordForFluffy · 30/09/2019 06:22

Chaz, I'm inclined to think you're right in relation to internal briefing against BoZo. Party over everything, after all.

I'm not surprised the Queen is taking advice on the constitutional crisis. She must be so pissed off!

LizzieSiddal · 30/09/2019 07:12

pamperramper

There's a high risk that all of this work will, at best, lead to a 3 month adjournment and the frenzy of a Brexit election, and the Tories will win a susbstantial majority and then go straight for a no deal (by choice)

I said the same thing to Dh last night.

InMySpareTime · 30/09/2019 07:25

I got a Brexit Party sponsored advert on FB yesterday Envy(not envy).
I hid it and marked it offensive.
Their advert targeting algorithm is way off!

JeSuisPoulet · 30/09/2019 07:31

Getting lost amongst the distraction headlines is a story that I suspect is as near to the truth as we will get - along with the corporate lobbying of course - as to why BoZoCum is doing nothing before No Deal and why it is "a walk in the park" compared to the referendum. They simply don't do anything, as I said months ago.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2019 07:43

Philip Hammond@PhilipHammondUK

The vile comments from some readers of this Telegraph piece about my former advisor Sonia Khan

  • sacked without justification by Dominic Cummings - show the dangerous sentiment being whipped up by those exploiting division, rather than seeking unity.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/27/treasury-adviser-sacked-dominic-cummings-offered-40000-payout/

Westminstenders: The Tory Party Spectacular
BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2019 07:44

Nick Cohen: It’s open season for political thugs and the Tories gave them the pass

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/29/it-is-open-season-for-political-thugs-and-the-tories-gave-them-the-pass

If a malign power wanted to push a peaceful country into political violence, it would follow the example of the British Conservative party.
......
Let this be the Tories’ epitaph:

Here lies the “party of law and order”.
It died invoking mob rule.

Here lies the “natural party of government”.
It left an ungovernable Britain.

Alsohuman · 30/09/2019 08:04

Twitter cheered me up this morning. Bercow as PM, what a delectable prospect.

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-fiasco-twist-secret-plan-20325827.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Swipe left for the next trending thread