Westminstenders: The Tory Party Spectacular

[RedToothBrush]

A row over parliamentary language and conduct and how MPs are afraid of extremists has over shadowed talk of Brexit.

Cummings has said if you don't want to leave without a deal, vote for a deal.

Yet there isn't a Johnson approved one in front of the Commons and the EU are utterly despairing of Johnson's blank non papers and his full on Trump bullshit.

Then there's the threats to the rule of law.

Apparently there are five known suggestions to bypass the Benn Act and refuse to ask for an extension.
See Twitter Thread Here

This weekend sees the start of the Tory Party Conference. With a parliamentary vote to block a recess, its rather scuppered plans for the rest of the conference. Johnson's planned speech at the conference clashes with PMQ so he may well not attend the Commons.

Expect the conference to be.... Er... Inflammatory...

(Yes, I know O'Mara isn't in a safe seat, but the same principle of whether to replace an MP can apply in any seat where the MP is either not doing their job as an MP,
or has just moved too far away from the party to stand again for that party at the next GE)

The Tories tried open primaries. I think the only one who got in was Sarah Woolastone.

(So maybe it's a good idea.)

I see we disagree about the fragility of the GNU:
It is not a Remain Alliance, just against No Deal

Ah - see I don't view a GNU as a remain alliance, I accept that there are leavers and I accept they they are entitled to continue supporting leave. BUT, since the W.A has been defeated three times (some times by these very people) the only reason they are not accepting a P.V is sheer obstinacy, because they got what they wanted and are afraid of it being taken away. The HoC doesn't want the W.A, there is nothing to suggest that after a GE they would want the W.A. So if these tory mps want brexit they have to accept that they have to fight for it - one way or the other, and that will involve compromise with remainers.
I don't see a GNU as having one coherent opinion on which side would win a P.V - they should be free to campaign as they choose.
These tory mps want the W.A - there is not the numbers for the W.A as it stands (same as there isn't the numbers for any of the remain options - expecting those numbers to shift towards the deal is no more viable than wanting them to go the other way). Parliament is at an impasse and the only way to resolve that is by a vote by the people. If a GE brings back another hung parliament (very very likely) then that impasse is not resolved. So even though it is likely to happen, they will still be in the same place - and ultimately another GE will be needed - and then another and then another until they realise this isn't working.
But a P.V allows them to sell the W.A to the people and then gives the parliament a mandate to pass it if it wins. There is no reason to refuse it other than fear - because parliament can't solve it by itself and a GE is likely not to give any proper answers either. So - bearing in mind for anything to take place we need a shift in numbers (even potentially a VONC/ GE - that hasn't been tested yet, it's not guaranteed) then changing 30 tory mps minds to seeing that a PV followed by a GE solves the impasse - and they still have the option to campaign for exactly what they want - hardly seems a herculean feat.

After all - what a magic candy land we would live in if Nigel Farage had said 'lets leave the EU' someone had turned round and said 'there isn't the numbers for that' and he'd shut up. Numbers change.

I don't bang the P.V drum because I want to remain (though I do and I hope remain would win) but because it is the clearest way out of the impasse (a GE is muddied by the rest of the manifesto and tribal voting). I fully accept the possibility of a leave win followed by a tory/BXP election win followed by an incredibly hard brexit.
But that's why the idea works - because it leaves all options on the table until the people are finished voting. It is simply churlishness, and refusal to compromise, and fear they won't get what they want, for rebel tory mps to refuse a P.V to break the impasse. It has to be broken or we no deal - and they don't want no deal.

I think a GE will just create more of the same. So isn't sensible even if it is viable. A P.V first then a GE moves the country forward - so it is sensible even if it isn't viable. so ... do we do something that isn't sensible and will solve nothing just because we can, or do we change those numbers?

And as for the fragility of a GNU, I would assume (perhaps I'm being too optimistic) that they would agree its purpose before it called the VONC and formed. They would go in knowing what they wanted out of a referendum and with an agreement to do nothing else (Belgium managed for years without a govt - Britain would tick over.) If leavers want a longer extension and to insist the ref takes months, that's up to them - but as the GNU would have one objective and all they had to do was not sway from it (knowing that swaying would lead to no deal) ... they could see it out.

The tory/ lib dem coaliton wasn't the most stable govt we've ever had but it lasted the full five years. TM lasted 2 years with the DUP whilst trying to do an impossible feat. A GNU, with one firm objective, could sit tight and survive a matter of months.

If we can make sensible but not feasible wishes,
I'd rather go all out and wish that the UK suddenly copies Ireland with 90% support for Remaining

But without a P.V we could have 100% support for remain and we would still be leaving. There has to be a mechanism to undo that - and another hung parliament is not the way.

I agree Pretzels - it's why I keep doing stuff for a PV.

At this stage, everything is very volatile.

But I just keep plodding on and hoping.

I - as always! - agree with pretzels!

Woohoo! Just seen this on the news. Maybe the creators read these threads as I says months ago they should bring it back

Spitting Image show plots return to TV after 23 years
www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49865406

Pmk. I also thought of Lee Harvey Oswald re Cummings’ background.

I also want some chickens!

PMK with a picture of my cat who just accidentally turned on the printer and now wants to know what creature is making the whirring noise inside.

Heard on a train yesterday (55 year old female farmer with two sons in their twenties):
'Disgusting - all those remainers shouting and screaming in parliament'
'Bring on a no-deal Brexit. It's not as if it's going to make any difference to us.'

Do these people live in a bubble?

How ironic are Farage’s ‘knife’ comments? Thanks to Brexit the Civil Service is the biggest it’s been since WW2 as half are engaged in pointlessly trying to re-write or unpick stuff in order to Brexit and the other half are desperately trying to get Ministerial attention and Parliamentary time to enact badly needed reforms elsewhere.

Pretzels Reports are that 19 of the 21 Tory rebels refuse to accept Corbyn as PM
No signs he would step aside yet
So at least a 50% chance we won't ever get a GNU before a GE.

Even if we do, to increase the GNU majority means more Tory MPs would have to sacrifice their careers and defect
We need at least 30 to offset the 30 Labour Leavers
That might happen, but no signs yet.

The WA was voted down because most MPs, Remainers & Leavers, who didn't want No Deal didn't believe back in March that it would happen.
So those MPs stuck with their 1st preference

The numbers may have changed now that MPs realise No Deal is likely.
I've posted reports that some Cabinet ministers are so desperate to avoid No Deal that they would now support the WA

Kinnock said after his amendment was passed:
“My amendment to the Bill makes clear that passing a version of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) must now be the purpose of the extension request that the Prime Minister will be legally obliged to make,"

So, if we get an extension, it looks like the WA must be laid before the house again, to vote on

The EU might decide not to gamble on a GNU that doesn't yet exist or on Labour winning a GE
AND on then Remain winning a PV
The consequences of No Deal are terrible for them too and many of them have long lost any real enthusiasm for the Uk remaining.

Hence, they would look to the best way of avoiding No Deal, not of Remain
They may just meekly give another extension - but it would have to be for either the WA or for a GE, if the GNU does not yet exist.

It is possible they might grant an extension that is conditional on the WA being passed by 31 October,
just so that the necessary WA enabling legislation can also be passed

btw, Kinnock also said the WA gave MPs the chance to vote on a PV:

“The WAB is a very different proposition to the so-called ‘blind Brexit’ that came before it.
The WAB was the product of cross-party talks and it included a number of commitments and compromises which clarified the nature of the future relationship.
These included a Bill on workers’ rights, guarantees on environmental standards, a vote on customs options, a role for parliament in future negotiations,
and even a vote at Committee Stage on whether to put the deal to a confirmatory public vote."

So, we’re dependent on Corbyn doing the decent thing and stepping aside for Harman or Clarke.

Also but Labour are the largest group by far.

Really why should he step aside?

I also think that would be disastrous for Labour in a GE on top.of everything else thats disastrous.

It would be accepting that he is not suitable to be PM.

Which is basically true

Has anyone linked www.gov.uk/government/publications/brexit-preparedness-correspondence-with-the-eu-institutions yet? I had a quick look through the thread but couldn’t see it.

You can almost hear the sound of Barnier repeatedly banging his head in the desk as he wrote this.

Your periodic reality check that despite the unanimous and unprecedented Supreme Court verdict, the Queen, Lady Hale’s brooch, Boris’ use of the words humbug and surrender, his financial backers, the impending return of the 1930s, his hair, etc etc etc... the Conservatives still have a 12-point lead over Labour in today’s Opinium poll for the Observer:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/28/tories-hold-12-point-lead-over-labour-in-latest-poll

Con: 36%
Lab: 24%
LD: 20%
BXP: 11%

Boris still leads Corbyn for best PM by more than 2 to 1, and the Lib Dems are now the no. 1 party for Remain voters...

No. A GNU should be neutral in leadership. And the leader(s) are going to cop so much flak, it would be best to have people happy to take on what would be a career-terminating role.

I like the sound of the WAB; it's definitely better than the blind Brexit. I think it could garner a fair amount of support.

Funny how Cendrillon only posts the polls which support their bias, not the ones which show much closer figures.

🤦🏻‍♀️
The govt STILL hasn't twigged that No Deal means no talks about
"practical mitigations that work for both of us"

which is what DexEU minister Barclay was requesting in his letter to Barnier.
He was requesting talks about trade flow and data protection measures for businesses

No Deal means the EU makes unilateral measures only, no talks 🤦🏻‍♀️

Barnier wrote back:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/835140/ReplyyfromMrrMBarnierrtoSoSSSteve_Barclay.pdf

"As regards No-Deal preparations, the EU has already finalised its work,
as set out in the European Commission's six 'preparedness Communications' adopted between July 2018 and September 2019, as well as in the 100 'Brexit preparedness notices' published since May 2017".

We will not enter into any negotiations with the United Kingdom on these matters".

After the blatant threats against Ireland that Barclay made during his recent tour of EU capitals, Barnier may be sticking to polite language through clenched teeth

We are, flouncy. But Cendrillon is on a one-person Boris-cheerleading team.

As in the New Statesman analysis I posted earlier, there are 2 groups of polling firms with very different results:

Although all agree on the Tories losing votes to the LDems and seats to the SNP,
the 2 groups disagree on whether the Tories can win enough Labour Leave seats not just to offset this, but also to increase their seats from now

Noone can be certain which group is more accurate

The polls don't surprise me at all. I'm sort of resigned to the fact that people get the governments they deserve and most people's understanding of political direction of travel is very limited and guided by MSM, who peddle their distorted stories to good effect. We're fucked.

You’d have thought Cendrillon would have got the message that current polls are meaningless. We keep telling her.