Im guessing this could end up in a confidence motion?
Red or BCF would you agree?
Honestly?
No. Because no one wants to trigger a GE just yet.
My eyes are on what Tory moderates will do and just how uncomfortable some are feeling and whether Graham Brady's mailbox might be a little warm.
There are rumours that there are some VERY unhappy Tory MPs.
Even then though, I don't think that will happen...
I SUSPECT what will happen is they might threaten that, and they might then apply pressure to use this as an opportunity to remove Cummings.
Whether that will happen I'm not sure.
There is also likely to be a post mortem in Cabinet about how they were excluded from seeing the legal advice on this (eyes particularly on Robert Buckland the attorney general here too). I suspect they will be more demanding on Johnson and will scruntise HIM more rather than let him act as such a loose canon, as they have collective responsibility.
So things will get tougher for Johnson. He will try and style it out.
Cummings is liable to try and lie low for at least a few days. (I think he'll also survive tbh).
But expect lots of 'unnamed sources' and 'enemies of the people' crap from some quarters.
The Conservative Party conference (in Manchester - 2 and a half hours by train plus transit time from the Gmex to Piccadilly and from Euston to Westminister - its 3 and half hours MINIMUM unless you go by helicopter) is going to be bloody interesting as the House will be sitting and there will be NO recess now.
Johnson was SUPPOSED to be speaking at the Conservative Party conference BUT thats now looking fucked.
I think we will also hear a lot more about impeachment or misconduct in a public office. I also don't think this will go very far, but I think there will be lots of muttering about it.