Westminstenders: Silly Season

[RedToothBrush]

It's that time of year again when politicians seem to completely lose their marbles in order to impress the faithful. And it is beginning to feel like conference season is increasingly an exercise in religious ferver to the party rather than considering what's in the best interests of the whole country.

Labour have got off to a good start before their conference opens, by almost starting complete melt down.

The Tories have promised to break from convention and try and over shadow the others, so that's something to look forward to.

And early this week we have the supreme Court ruling which could, regardless of which direction it swings, have massive ramifications for our democracy.

Big week ahead.

I think that would be unusual as everything is normally in the initial judgment. Though I don't profess to have Supreme Court experience!

Bearing in mind they've already discussed the remedies available (and the well known untrustworthiness of BoZo, hence the need for the hearings to start with) I'd think (hope) it would all come together.

I am cautiously optimistic about the delay in getting the judgment though.

They might indeed try to avoid confrontation by just stating prorogue was illegal and waiting for BJ to do the right thing, instead of ordering it.

Might have a long wait

There's no doubt they're being exceedingly thorough. The questions they were asking (I really liked the President's questioning; she's my new hero!) showed that.

As for the majority, they're really not going to badger a Justice to get them to make what the others think is the right decision.

This whole case is unprecedented, as is a govt with such contempt for judges

Yes, but that doesn't mean they will seek to change another Justice's mind beyond pointing out the alternate way of thinking. That's really not how it works.

Sometimes judgments are brilliant reading where Judges really haven't seen eye to eye!

Justices would be worried, in such a febrile atmosphere, about appearing to interfere in politics

Hence there might be an attempt to find something on which all or most could agree,
but which is softer than would usually be the judgement against illegal actions

I agree re housing - but it's hard isn't it? Housing around us (just outside m25 - so commuter belt for London) has taken a nosedive. V v low volumes because nothing is selling. So my feeling is that the longer this Brexit debacle continues, the greater the chance of a huge adjustment to the housing market. But that is just going to add to the economic pain isn't it? And it will effect people and families across the social spectrum......

I would assume that they do not want to have to try the case again in another form in a few months
so even if they are not unanimous
will want to come up with a ruling that locks the executive and the house into better patterns of behaviour from now on

In theory, the procedure should be as for any other case

In practice, with a govt verging on rogue, it probably isn't

There's three choices:

It's non-justiciable.
It's justiciable but legal.
It's justiciable and illegal.

If a Justice has a different opinion on one of the above, then there won't be any mind-changing going on.

As for the remedy, as long as the majority judgment is that it's illegal, then there aren't really many options there, are there? It's not your typical judicial review-type decision.

A No Deal Brexit would probably eventually lower house prices & rents, as previous recessions have

However, by far the most efficient method - and less painful - is to increase supply, rather than have people lose their homes and be burdened with debt from negative equity
They then have to be housed somewhere, anyway

Every recession ends sometime and if supply hasn't significantly increased in the meantime, then the price spiral would then just resume

Remind me when the Tory conference is...I need to get more popcorn in...

Anyone watching Tories at War tonight?

My point is that a Justice isn't going to change their mind if they're certain they're right. That's why they have an odd number. If it was as easy as badgering until you have a unanimous verdict, you'd have an even number!

They will apply the law as they - individually - understand it to come to their judgment. They may discuss the law more, to make sure they're clear on it, but I don't think we should have Justices who can be harangued into toeing a line. That's not what justice is (and I say that even if they find it legal).

fluffy I hope you are right
However, look at countries which previously had an independent judiciary, but where judges begin to be afraid of the govt and / or of populism

I hope our system isn't yet that affected

I'll watch it on catch up...10pm bedtime on a school night!

If they were afraid, they wouldn't have grilled the government QCs in the manner they did. I don't think we've fallen into that situation at the present time (my hunch is they're REALLY pissed off it's come to this!).

I hold the judiciary in great respect (even if I don't necessarily agree with their judgments). I wouldn't be able to do my job if I didn't, as my first duty is to the Court and therefore the judiciary.

Do the Judges, like me, sense a weariness with it all? A lot of people who are not really interested in politics think Johnson has gone to far.

You won't hear that on Leaver threads here, but I think it is so.

Couple of tomorrow's newspapers. Rest not up yet...

Do the Judges, like me, sense a weariness with it all?

They won't even consider this kind of thing...

I suspect they will have blocked all Brexit type talk/news/etc and will be entirely focused on the legal questions and won't be considering any external factors.

2 mins in and Alan Duncan is already dropping the F bomb at the ERG

V v low volumes because nothing is selling.

The question is simply why isn't it selling when there is such a miss match of supply and demand?

It comes back to there being a significant generational gap that occurred over housing because of the 2008 crash.

There is a very distinct gap between DH and I. People born before 1980 are doing OK compared with people born after 1982. It shows up in the figures and we've noticed it anedotally with our circles of friends.

The main issue is those who didn't share in equity gains in housing, now being priced out of the market and if they can afford a house, they can't afford to move up it.

It's really marked where we are. People locally 10 years older were able to buy 4 bed room detached properties at the same stage in their career but people a similar age to DH are struggling to get 3 small bed semis here now. The schools which were ALWAYS oversubscribed have had spaces this year.

The developers have not cottoned on to the fact that no one can buy £500,000 luxury detached properties as they once did. The ones they built here in the last 2 years have really struggled to sell.

However those small 3 beds? They fly off the market rapidly and are inflated to a price above where they should be due to a shortage.

Theres also a spot in the market at about where there are no properties between the huge 4 bed detached and the small 3 bed.

So no one can move up the ladder slowly.

It's nuts. The whole market is fucked because of all the tinkering around the edges and lack of cohesive thinking.

It's either first time housing or big expensive housing that's been built in the last fifteen years.

I know loads of people who have got kids into school and now thinking if having to move out the area as a result of a combination of stupid prices and lack of the right type of housing stock.

As I say, local politics on this, drive me as nutty as Brexit.

The older generation have absolutely no idea about the structural issues and think it's people not saving hard enough or working hard enough. Quite honestly they just don't understand how things work, just like the current and last 2 PM's don't know how the EU works.

.

I suspect they will have blocked all Brexit type talk/news/etc and will be entirely focused on the legal questions and won't be considering any external factors.

Only for the period when they knew the hearing was coming. I imagine they were paying a fair amount of attention before that! We get regular professional updates on it for a start.

Well after all the speculation over the weekend, it's just been confirmed Thomas Cook has gone pop.

www.itv.com/news/2019-09-22/thomas-cook-administration/
Thomas Cook set to go into administration, ITV News sources confirm

9000 jobs.

That's a big deal.

re: the independent. If Corbyn is 'terrified' of becoming Pm then all that shows is he has more sense than certainly I thought. And a damn sight more sense than Boris Johnson. Which, ironically, means he'd probably make a better PM than most people think - because unlike BJ and pig fucker Dave, he clearly has some inkling of what the role involves.

I don't blame him for desperately not wanting the job right now - who in their right mind would? But - as unfair as it would be to lump this shit show on him, or anyone else who wasn't directly responsible for it, I'd still rather him in charge than Boris.

Yes he could step down and let someone else take on the mantle - but nobody sane would want it! and the last thing labour - and the country - need right now is a leadership contest.
He's in a very difficult position and I don't envy him it. But ultimately he - and the rest of us - are where we are because the tories are so intent on destroying everything. But the papers really don't want to remember that little fact. It's easier to kick JC.

But if he truly is 'terrified' of being PM - then stepping aside and letting Ken Clarke or John Bercow lead a GNU is his get out of jail free card. Shuts the lib dems and tory rebels up, keeps his hands clean for the election, is seen to have stepped aside for the good of the country (whilst simultaneously sort of making the lib dems and the tory rebels look unreasonable in refusing to work with the leader of the largest party), avoids being PM when he doesn't want to be. It's a Win win win win situation.