Westminstenders: Silly Season

[RedToothBrush]

It's that time of year again when politicians seem to completely lose their marbles in order to impress the faithful. And it is beginning to feel like conference season is increasingly an exercise in religious ferver to the party rather than considering what's in the best interests of the whole country.

Labour have got off to a good start before their conference opens, by almost starting complete melt down.

The Tories have promised to break from convention and try and over shadow the others, so that's something to look forward to.

And early this week we have the supreme Court ruling which could, regardless of which direction it swings, have massive ramifications for our democracy.

Big week ahead.

We don't know whether In a few years time, No Deal Brexit will lead to hard left, hard right, or years of angry voters oscillating between these 2 extremes

History does not tell us that societies oscillate between two extremes. Either Bozos or JC succeed in their, sorry Cummings and Milne’s, plans and become populist leaders and in terms of a society that is well governed the baby gets thrown out with the ideological Bathwater, left or right is not going to make much difference, neither are pragmatists who actually focus on what will work rather than ideology, and our constitution and way of life will be threatened and many will suffer. I would say bets are off if they don’t find a war to mobilise “the people” history tells us that is a well thumbed strategy in the populist playbook Or we continue to protest and campaign and do everything else in our power to prevent it. There is going to be an election, the last one was not exactly a ringing endorsement for hard right or hard left. However you spin it, it was a a clear indication that “the people” didn’t want to be governed from the extremes, a message gone unheard since 2010. I hope so anyway.

The schools thing is an example, we already have an education system where professionalism and known to be sound educational strategies have been undermined by Cumming’s ideology, never mind that anyone who actually was an education professional was screaming against it, including the private school Heads. In fact some of the best argued and heartfelt protests I have read came from private school Heads who used their platform to oppose it, even though they could and have ways of opting out. Now we have another load of ideologically driven proposals that are going to cause yet more damage. My only hope is that we have a bunch of twenty somethings who learnt early about the damage ideology can do, and they are the future.....

I've no problem if Remain votes go to the LDems They offer a clear Remain alternative

But that just divides the anti - Tory vote because there can’t be a Lib / Lab coalition on account the of the fact Corbyn is a twat.

With a different leader it’s a possibility.

Yep, red but the problem is that too many voters prioritise keeping house prices & rents forever increasing

So any tweaks that parties up to now have tried merely feed into the price spiral, rather than increasing the stock of places in which people want to live

Yes, I was wondering about that Ofsted abolition. Going to 'replace it with a new inspectorate' apparently. So is this abolition in name only? I could agree with scrapping the grading system, it's been shown up as not reflecting anything of use too often, but I can't say I believe all educational 'professionals' are the same either.

The longer the Justices consider their judgment, the more I think the government is in trouble. If you're making the 'easy' decision, you do it relatively quickly.

I believe they've mentioned using Council bodies to replace Ofsted.

Seems like a backwards step to me, I agree Ofsted needs reform/change in direction but to abolish it and set something up in the Councils seems worse.

I think overall I'm realising I'm not a big fan of big policy changes - evolution rather than revolution, pragmatism over ideology seems a better way of managing a country IMO.

So any tweaks that parties up to now have tried merely feed into the price spiral, rather than increasing the stock of places in which people want to live

Don't get me started on help to buy.

It's added a 20% premium on all new build properties around my neck of the woods and that 20% has gone straight in the back pocket of the developers.

I've crunched the numbers on this when there was an attempt to review a housing plan here. It shocked me.

The group started off well enough but eventually got taken over by the NIMBYs.

Ironically it leaves in a position where our local green belt is even more vulnerable because these numpties don't understand the politics nor what housing stock is needed and are just trying to block stuff for the most ridiculous of reasons.

It's honestly as frustrating and mind fryingly stupid as Brexit. They have no idea what they are doing.

bear If Labour became the largest party, which would have a majority with LDem C&S, it would be exceptionally childish & arrogant of the much smaller party to demand Labour change their leader
I expect reality would prevail

In any case, C&S would give them a veto on any policies they don't like, just as the tiny DUP had a veto over May

If they just object to Corbyn himself as some bogeyman, rather than the dim 4th rate politician he is, then they need to grow up and stop posturing

If the LDems caused an immediate 2nd GE, then the voters would punish them severely for making them vote again so soon

If BJ and Cameron had veen born to poor families, gone to sink schools, or indeed to decent comprehensives, would either have become PM ?

I very much doubt it. Cameron might have made it to university, after finally getting his act together at A levels.

Johnson, no, he would have been the lad arsing around at the back of the classroom. A perceptive teacher might have taken him to one side and told him that if he stopped messing around he could make something of himself. But it was too much effort to stop arsing around.

The interference in the curriculum is so annoying. Maths for example: there was a plan to have a double award maths as well as single, designed for those who needed more than offered at the old GCSE for those who wanted to go onto A Level in Maths and Science. A single award for those who didn't want that, and a functional maths award for those who weren't academic but needed everyday arithmetic. Gove scrapped that, and has made the GCSE harder, which means it will be out of reach of many children. I wish to God that he and Cummings could take a running jump somewhere.

Although.... since I am getting on a bit, I am of a generation where women especially were pushed into teaching, some of whom should never have been let within a mile of a classroom. I think now, there are more choices, so it's no longer the default option, which is good, and I think teachers now are better than in my day. (Although we had some good ones.)

Actually in the bath now (tmi) pondering the nature of manifesto promises. Are they:

• we are 100% definitely going to deliver this for you come what may ; or

• we are 100% going to explore this idea, do impact assessments and see how it looks?

Because for the school thing - having a rash vote at conference isn't great without a detailed plan. The things needing considering are things like:

• what is the impact assessment for this idea?how many billions come into the U.K. from international secondary school students
• what will happen to all the teachers
• if the property is being repossessed will that windfall belong to central government or local councils
• will setting up new replacement private schools be outlawed
• will the 7% cap send uni income and research funding even further down because people choose overseas unis
•what about religious schools?
• if sequestration of properties is a boon for property developers how is that all managed planning and tax wise?

Yes, Help To Buy is the most notorious example

Inevitable when politicians don't dare do anything to actually lower the ridiculous house prices & rents in many areas,
but merely subsidise them

Abolishing Ofsted will backfire as badly as abolishing the Audit Commission did.
Its an UTTERLY stupid idea.

Some things are best done at local level
others - like educational standards and oversight of public spending - need to be nationally managed

If Labour focused on no brainer sensible things

• allowing councils to build social housing
• allowing LEAs to provide school places where they are needed
• rolling back the fragmentation of the NHS
• agreeing not to renew any rail franchises (dirt cheap nationalisation by the back door)

then they would be a real electoral force

but instead Lansman tries to sack Watson

Didn't Tory PM Harald McMillan manage to increase public housing by building 300,000 homes per year ?

I come from Harrow. Visiting family with DW, who was born in Liverpool, and moved to Brum (where we live) she commented that parts of Harrow were indistinguishable from parts of Brum and Liverpool that were all thrown up in the 1930s. Because that's what you do to solve a housing crisis. You build houses. Millions of them. Not tinker around with government policies on the fonts of mortgages.

And the reason parts are indistinguishable is because there's a complete spread of types of housing. From classic three-house streets to the boulevards and maisonettes.

However you spin it, it was a a clear indication that “the people” didn’t want to be governed from the extremes, a message gone unheard since 2010. I hope so anyway.

In some way's it's like the tides, they go out, stay out for a while and then come in again, stay high for a while and then start to go out again.

Think back to the 1970s (if like me, you were around.) The old systems of the welfare state were all looking tired, plus there was an oil crisis. Heath lost an election, Wilson formed a minority Government and then one with a slender majority. Callaghan lost this, and the tide of Thatcherism came sweeping in. By the early 90s people were sick to death of this, and the tide started to turn. But it only swept in in 1997 - then it went out and a lowish tide, a neep tide came in...... Yes, well, I think I am flogging this.

But I think the tide could be turning again. Leavers I know are sick of it all; they are mostly elderly and are more worried about their hospital appointments and ops being cancelled than the EU. Remainers however, are just still as angry.

I agree with you @RedToothBrush about the crucial role of housing policy. The Right to Buy was a disaster.

Because that's what you do to solve a housing crisis. You build houses. Millions of them. Not tinker around with government policies on the fonts of mortgages.

I've always had a hunch that there is far too much emphasis on the money now - the representation of money, the electronic figures on a screen - and not enough any more on the resources that it represents. Iyswim. We need to sort out resources, not the figures.

Supreme Court judgment expected on TUESDAY

There will be a silent protest from 8am outside.

This is interesting. The longer the Supreme Court takes the worse it seems for the government's case - and it could be that they are still striving for a unanimous judgement.

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
The
@UKSupremeCourt
has just said that the appeal decisions will not be handed down tomorrow morning

Further update tomorrow lunchtime

Peregrina I'm not sure if I was aware of that about the double awards for maths and the functional award.

About 4 years ago when my ds was struggling with gcse maths, I spent a lot of time pointlessly moaning that this sort of system should be an option for maths. Fortunately, my ds passed his maths higher gcse in the end with some miracle work from him and a lovely woman maths teacher who came out of retirement to help the strugglers.

For so long, the right wing have castigated Labour politicians and supporters for sending their children to private schools. Of course, the real reason is to try and keep those schools strictly for themselves: they don't want left wing people to access the kind of education that would enable them to rule the country.

Personally, I feel there's nothing wrong with the education these schools provide. It's excellent - why would we do away with it?
What is wrong is the exclusiveness: we should be educating more working class children in these schools - there should be more bursaries available, especially for girls.

Supreme court are clearly thinking VERY CAREFULLY about the wording of their judgement
which bodes well for democracy in the UK

I doubt they'd stay there until it was unanimous, as if somebody is totally set on their opinion, it would be wrong to harangue them into changing their mind. I can imagine they'd prefer it was a large number who agree though (so 10 or 8 as ideal).

Yep. DG We need to build millions of houses, a variety of types, in areas where people want to live because of jobs & schools

• build more schools & hospitals as needed

That mass house-building won't be done, because it would lower prices & rents, hence piss off too many sharp-elbowed property-owning voters

Many people say "something must be done" about housing, or climate change
but aren't prepared to make any sacrifices - and solutions to these do require some sacrifices by the better off

So we have to wait for the deluge to happen, by which time the required sacrifices will be far more severe

Probably right, Fluffy. I did also see David Allen Green mention the possibility of a two stage judgement. If for instance the initial judgement is simply "unlawful" and the govt ignores that, i.e. it's not sorted out politically, then when the court gives its complete reasoning and final judgement a short time later, it might add a remedy of insisting parliament be recalled.

The Supremes are either being exceedingly thorough, or are trying to get a large majority decision
.... or have the wind up, after that No 10 spokesman and the "Enemies of the People" agitation