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Brexit

Westminstenders: Constitutional History

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2019 14:57

The Supreme Court case continues
(ruling possible Friday but likely Monday)

The new NI proposal is bollocks and Johnson didn't get why until it was discussed in Europe.

There was a press conference in Luxembourg which looks good for Johnson.

Johnsons approval ratings are up.

And we are making no obvious progress to anything but no deal...

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Thread gallery
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BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2019 22:20

That's Tory Brexiter MP Mark Francois aka "Pot Noodle"
(because of his shameless expense claim)

Hoooo · 18/09/2019 22:21

Not sure if its been posted on here yet?

On sky news: ukip leader refuses to attend ukip annual conference due to low ticket sales.

You really couldn't make this stuff up...

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2019 22:26

Anyone needing to catch up / review absolutely everything at the Supremes:

Raphael Hogarth@RaphaelHogarth

This is a 900-word summary of what happened in the Supreme Court yesterday, for anyone who is catching up in order to follow today.

Probably more detailed than what you'll read in the papers, but hopefully more accessible than listening to 5 hours of submissions.
1/

https://mobile.twitter.com/Raphaell_Hogarth/status/1174233142556839940

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2019 22:29

Hardly any journalists seem to realise how dangerous a situation we are in, both politically & economically

The BBC should be taking the lead in explaining this, not collaborating with it

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2019 22:31

Papers that have Brexit-related leads:

Westminstenders: Constitutional History
Westminstenders: Constitutional History
Basilpots · 18/09/2019 22:31

twitter.com/essexpoliceuk/status/1174300972081979394?s=21

Link that works.

Francois in fancy dress.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2019 22:33

Matt Dathan @matt_dathan
Rees-Mogg signalled the PM will offer the expelled Tory rebels a way back into the party if they vote for his Queen's Speech, telling @christopherhope in tonight's #MoggLive: “It is human to err, it is divine to forgive & the Prime Minister is very close to being divine I think"

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23Squared · 18/09/2019 22:35

How does this European Parliament has just voted 544-126 in support of UK being given an article 50 extension should the request be made tally with this They put on a new deadline to PM Johnson: proposal on 30.9 the latest ?

Or does it mean deal or request for an extension by then or we are no dealing?

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2019 22:45

It means

Show the EU our working out for the backstop by 30th September and for EU to say yes this is acceptable to us too.

After which either go to the EU summit on 17th October, with new proposal to be formally agreed as a way forward or the EU say its the original Deal or nothing

17th - 31st we fanny about in parliament getting the WA through and all the other relevant legislation to make it work - without it being defeated / blocked. Remembering Johnson has said no technical extension if we don't have all the other legal stuff done in time.

31st October we either have completed the deal.

Or we have decided to go with the deal but haven't got it through parliament, in which can we either no deal accidental because we are too stubborn to ask for a technical extension, or we do a full on about face to ask for a technical extension.

Or we are full steam ahead for no deal.

Or we have a massive panic attack as we are on track for no deal but shit our pants at the last minute and ask for an extension because fuck we haven't got a deal and fuck we really haven't thought this through.

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0lga · 18/09/2019 22:46

This article might amuse some of you

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/18/legal-defence-of-prorogation-crashes-burns-and-then-fades-into-silence?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Outlook

He [James Eadie ] couldn’t explain why the Incredible Sulk had not signed a witness statement giving the reasons for the prorogation. In fact, he didn’t even bother to pretend that the pretext for suspending parliament had been the Queen’s speech. No one believed a word Boris Johnson said. Not even him. Especially him. The longer he spoke the more it seemed everything in the government’s argument was probably false. It was all he could do to prevent himself making a full confession 😂

Rhubarbisevil · 18/09/2019 22:50

This just popped up on Twitter.

Three months of chaos is the government message.

Westminstenders: Constitutional History
RedToothBrush · 18/09/2019 22:51

Ian Warren @election_data
So, if Labour were serious about radical devolution, they could set an example and devolve themselves first. Because they could do that now. Labour HQ a few hundreds up from Westminster. Why can't it be elsewhere? It doesn't end there...

....because where are the trade unions based? Unite? London. Unison? London. GMB? London. Where are the think-tanks linked to the party based? Progress? London. Compass? London. The Fabians? London.

Leader of the party? London. Shadow Chancellor? London. Shadow Foreign Secretary? London. Shadow Brexit Secretary? London. Shadow Home Secretary? London. I'm not at all calling for any of those figures to be sacked/replaced. I'm asking about geography.

Cialdini writes very well about the geography of persuasion. Over time, where you are based or where you work invokes conscious and unconscious biases. At an organisational level this creates a culture which reinforces such bias. I write as someone who's worked in Labour HQ btw

....and the other parties are just as dominated by London, if not more so.

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LouiseCollins28 · 18/09/2019 23:07

That’s actually remarkably insightful stuff, thanks Red. Agree totally with Ian Warren on this. There was a guardian panel article about the new Jeremy’ Corbyn “neutrality” policy and the anger in the commnets at Lisa Nandy s contribution was quite revealiThe Conservatives actually have a better spread than Labour do among their top. Office holders too interestingly

Dusty01 · 18/09/2019 23:13

Olga - I watched quite a lot of the Supreme Court today.

That article is very accurate. He's very funny, John Crace. Thank you.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2019 23:25

"How does this European Parliament has just voted 544-126 in support of UK being given an article 50 extension should the request be made tally with this They put on a new deadline to PM Johnson: proposal on 30.9 the latest ?"

The deadline was given by Macron & the Finnish PM
They are obviously totally separate entities from the EP

If any of the heads of govt vetoes an extension at the October EUCO, then it doesn't matter that the EP would like an extension and that all the other countries would too

An extension must be unanimously approved by the heads of govt, but the EP can only express a no -binding opinion

In contrast, any WA must be approved by all heads of govt AND the EP.

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2019 23:29

Peter Ungpharkorn @CoppentianPU
1/10. Had a long chat with an old friend today. We both worked in information, briefing journalists etc. He did it most of his working life. Some of my working life was also on the other side, ie, a journalist receiving briefing.

We got to talking about media coverage of Brexit.

2. Let's say we were both dissatisfied with it.

And we were talking about the serious stuff. Not those inflammatory tabloid headlines.

This was part of a longer chat about media manipulation and why the media are sometimes very tame. We had both seen it in our different ways.

3. We both felt too many journalists either didn't detect manipulation by their sources, or were reluctant to resist.

Only some are critically-minded enough to sift out the spin.

Too few bother to ask the PM "what have you proposed?" when he claims the UK is negotiating hard.

4. In my own experience 1 or 2 stand out.

Like the then reporter from Neue Zürcher Zeitung who always stood back thoughtfully, understanding the technical detail we briefed about, but refusing to be drawn into it because the bigger picture was more important.

Keeping a distance

5. That was about technical trade issues.

Brexit is different. It's a horrendously difficult subject to report on. Keeping a distance is an even bigger problem.

Journalists, like anyone, can be drawn into a bubble. We get too close to our sources. We get conditioned by them.

6. So, journalists who spend their whole time in Westminster or with political parties, focus on party-political Brexit, or whether a leader will survive, or what the voting numbers are among MPs. Rarely the substance.

But Brexit is much, much bigger than that, even politically

7. My friend and I agreed that many of the better reporters on Brexit are not in London, but in Brussels.

They work for the BBC, RTE and the print media.

My take on it is that they are forced to see the other side of the argument, to take a more rounded view

8. There's another angle: off-the-record and background briefings.

Access to that kind of information is essential for good journalism. But it's also a privilege. One that can be withdraw

9. When a source, particularly close to the very top, gives confidential, usable information, it takes a brave journalist to report negatively on the source. The risk is losing access.

So, critical reporting must be done carefully.

And that's why journalists sometimes seem tame

10/ends.

We know journalists can break out of the bubble, take a more rounded, distanced view, particularly about what they have been told. There are not many but we do see them.

There are also some doing a valiant job checking facts.

We need more of all of them.

A thread summing up pretty much everything I've posted over the course of the day, inc pre 'there is no press' gate.

My fav Brexit journalists atm is definitely Peter Foster (telegraph) for many of these reasons - precisely because a deal all rests on the backstop and the GFA. It really shocks me how few journalists are paying attention to this given its significance.

It is quite something that he works for the Telegraph all things considered.

Faisal Islam is good, but he's not quite found his feet since leaving sky for the beeb.

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BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2019 23:44

That is another journalistic failing - only talking to UK politicans

Hardly any UK journalists bother to get the genuine EU or E27 viewpoint,
as distinct from the dubious "EU sources" - mostly residing in No 10 ! - that many have quoted over the last 2 years claiming imminent EU climbdowns

They write about the UK political bubble in which they live
Unfortunately that bubble is very ignorant and doesn't see the cliff edge

JeSuisPoulet · 18/09/2019 23:45

Faisel left Sky just when it began being more impartial on Brexit than the BBC...wonder how he feels about that now the Beeb is just a govt mouthpiece Hmm

That Cummings Court case is scary - he's realised you just have to keep bullying away and people crumble even if they have been proven to be right in a Court of law. It's all part of the journo thing and media in general I'm sure = see Fox news and Trump bullying/threatening anyone asking 'real' questions.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2019 23:48

Best Brexit journalists have usually been Irish, working for Irish publications

  • very close to the story, English mother tongue to understand all the language nuances, but outside the British political bubble

And they aren't suck ups.

JeSuisPoulet · 18/09/2019 23:48

I think the journo's actually believe they are valiantly trying to get across a point of view out of the bubble - the leave side. Remember that they all believed v. early on pretty much that "if they got out of London and stopped talking to rich remainers" - oh...wait....who else said that recently Hmm Wonder where that headline after the election came from that convinced our journo's not to be pro-remain or else face the wrath of the country Angry

JeSuisPoulet · 18/09/2019 23:49

Not election, referendum Blush

I need sleep!

Peregrina · 18/09/2019 23:58

Immediately after the Referendum my DB said, 'Mark my words, it will come down to NI and Gibraltar'. He wasn't entirely right about Gibraltar because it's barely had a mention, but he was most definitely right about NI.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/09/2019 00:00

FT: EU fears Brexit reality has dawned too late for Boris Johnson

The EU having an "Oh fuck" 🤦🏻‍♀️ moment when they realise BJ really is the bumbling idiot shown in his public image

https://amp.ft.com/content/7453c686-d9b7-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17?

Officials have become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of a deal with the UK’s prime minister

The FT on Wednesday morning reports on a chastening encounter over lunch between Mr Johnson, Michel Barnier and Jean-Claude Juncker,
which one official described as a “penny dropping” moment for the prime minister over what it really means to replace the Irish backstop.

According to an account of the meeting, the prime minister was told by his EU counterparts in no uncertain terms that the UK’s plan to replace the backstop
by allowing Northern Ireland to stick to common EU rules on food and livestock (known as SPS)
was not enough to prevent customs checks on the vast majority of goods that cross the Irish border.

At that point, a befuddled Mr Johnson turned to David Frost, his chief negotiator, and Stephen Barclay, Brexit secretary, and said:
“So you’re telling me the SPS plan doesn’t solve the customs problem?”

The exchange, according to one EU official, was part of an abrupt “learning curve” for Mr Johnson in his first face-to-face meeting with Mr Barnier and Mr Juncker since he took office.

Another official describes the prime minister gradually “slumping” in his chair as the reality of the UK’s negotiating position and the limited time left to strike an agreement dawned on him.
“He wasn’t used to hearing it”, added the official

Mr Juncker told his college of commissioners in Strasbourg on Tuesday that the Luxembourg lunch was the first time that “Boris Johnson understood the meaning of the single market”.
....
It has led plenty in Brussels to become increasingly pessimistic about the chances of Mr Johnson finding a way to satisfy the EU and pass any deal through his suspended parliament.

EU officials were also left questioning whether Mr Frost, Mr Johnson’s “sherpa” who has led talks in Brussels for the last month, has the trust of the prime minister.
“We don’t know if he has the mandate to agree anything”, said one.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/09/2019 00:06

Manfred Weber, leader of the EPP (centre-right) group in the EP showing no love for a fellow conservative:

“If a British prime minister is very provocative in the positions he adopts, then he shouldn’t be surprised if there are protest movements and demonstrations.
We are not in a superhero comic book.
We are talking about uncertainty for millions of people”.

Real conservatives despise the UK bunch of hard right nihilists, who would lead their own country over a cliff.

LouiseCollins28 · 19/09/2019 00:13

I’m sure they do believe that JeSuisPoulet. Sadly that doesn’t mean that they are right or that this belief is true. I don’t think most of them have a clue!

Reds post made me think about who’s reporting and journalism I like and value re: Brexit and it’s a pretty damn short list. Andrew Neil can be relied upon to give politicians of any stripe a well deserved going over, but print journalists?

I’d struggle to think of one who I read regularly who’s contributions are particularly impressive, and I read loads! Honestly the contributors to any of main U.K. parties comment sites regularly do a better job IMO.

My inability to cite too many positive might be because i spend the vast majority of my “media consuming time” looking at articles that are written from viewpoints I don’t share or usually instinctively sympathise with but there is so much regurgitated and contradictory dross out there.

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