Germany falling into recession, warns IFO
Ouch! Germany’s economy will fall into recession this quarter, according to new gloomy forecasts from the Munich-based IFO thinktank.
IFO has predicted that German GDP will fall by 0.1% in July-September, for the second quarter in a row. That would put Europe’s largest economy into a technical recession.
IFO also cut its growth forecast for 2019 to just 0.5%, from a barely-better 0.6%. That should concentrate minds at the ECB, as policymakers debate whether to restart their stimulus programme today.
IFO’s Timo Wollmershaeuser fears that the slump in German industry (particularly its car sector) is spreading across the economy, warning that:
“The outlook is weighed down by high uncertainties.”
IFO hopes that Germany will return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, this forecast is based on the UK avoiding a no-deal Brexit, and no further escalation of the US-China trade war.
And even then, IFO only expects Germany to grow by 1.2% in 2020, down from 1.7% previously.