Westminstenders: "I don't give a flying flamingo"

[RedToothBrush]

Amid scenes parliament was shut down.

In an unprecedented comment the Speaker, stated it was not an ordinary prorogation and it was blatantly an attempt to stop the executive being held to account.

And now it seems a Scottish Court agree with him:
"Lord Brodie cont: "the principal reasons for the prorogation were to prevent or impede parliament holding the executive to account and legislating with regard to Brexit, and to allow the executive to pursue a policy of a no deal Brexit without further parliamentary interference"

Thus parliament must reopen. Unless the decision is overturned in a higher court.

This is constitutionally a big deal. The Queen is highly unlikely to attend a reopening, especially in this manner, due to how political it now is.

General Election campaigning has already began with parties trying to take full advantage of the fact that there are currently no rules over spending.

Dominic Cummings actively and openly campaigning for the Conservatives whilst paid as a civil servant by the tax payer is a huge breech of the Civil service code but MPs are struggling to pin the government down on this as its being obstructive.

Cummings is keen to use data to target and personalise people based on their usage of the .gov portal for Brexit. This is OK as its in the national interest apparently. Its also incredibly sinister and concerning about how this could be used against the population.

Anyway if you thought parliament closing would result in a lull in events you were very much mistaken!!

What next?

I have a reasonable buffer/stash/stockpile but I am getting a bit jittery. I think it may be time to go all out and totally convert the under stairs cupboard into a corner shop. A trip to Ikea for shelves and Costco on the cards for the weekend I think.

I don't think that BJ-Cummings would have the necessary empathy to throw up on reading the Black Swan planning/impact reports.

Depends on the level of detail. Best earthmoving equipment to shovel bodies into mass graves without getting body parts everywhere, for example ?

That said, even Himmler was a little sick when he decided to "man up" and witness some Jews being exterminated

The actual story related by SS-Obergruppenfuhrer Karl Wolff relates to an Einsatzgruppen (Special Action) execution near Minsk in late 1941. Wolff’s narrative is as follows:

“And there an open grave had been dug. And they had jump into this and lie face down. And when a certain number had already been shot, they had lie on the people who had been shot. And Himmler had never seen dead people before, and in his curiosity he was leaning over this pit, a sort of triangular hole, and looking in. While he was looking in, Himmler had the deserved bad luck, from one or another of those that had been shot in the head, that he got a splash of brains on his coat. And I think it also splashed onto his face. And he became very green and pale, he wasn’t actually sick, but he was heaving and swaying and stumbled back from this pit. Then, I lead him away from the pit.”

...

(but with touching concern, Himmler then required SS troops be offered counselling)

Just read a comment

'On a positive note, illegal immigrants need to know that if they arrive after 31st October 2019, we will be waiting on the beaches to eat them. Needs must and all that'

Tony Blair managed to win 3 elections in a row for Labour (as did Mrs Thatcher).

That's all history will eventually remember.

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Boris Johnson slaps down Kwasi Kwarteng (and No10 sources) for his criticism of Scottish judges:

“It’s very important we respect the independence of the judiciary.
They are learned people".

This is the Govt's 4th different position on the row in 24 hours.

Boris Johnson slaps down Kwasi Kwarteng (and No10 sources) for his criticism of Scottish judges:

SOP for Hitler too. Keep your flunkies guessing at all times.

I'm not sure what use this resolution will be, other than to say "Wasn't us, guv"

James Crisp@JamesCrisp6

Leaked European Parliament resolution to be voted on next week says

No deal will be UK's fault
No FTA after no deal unless Brexit bill paid
Border issue an issue whoever in government

Notes strong opposition to prorogation

In BJ's case, I'm pretty sure he's just as confused about what he is doing as everyone else

Here's something I've seen mentioned a couple of times on twitter yesterday and today, but haven't really got a comment that explains it clearly.

The point is about people having competing political identities and which will win through at a General Election.

For example having a Remain identity and having a Conservative identity or having a Leave identity and having a Labour identity.

Which is more important? How can you use this to your advantage.

I refer to Cummings and his comment about Rich Remainers in the South as one such attempt to promote a leave identity over a Labour one.

What I've seen on twitter has been comments that Cummings does not quite understand which is more important: the Labour or Leave identity and the political history of certain communities. And thus is a view I tend to share.

Phrases like "Never trust a Tory" or "But they are still Tories" seem to be the buzz phrases.

This blog explores the idea:
medium.com/**@psurridge/volatility-and-vote-switching-part-i-2017-labour-voters-441c8fb7d526
Volatility and vote switching (Part I: 2017 Labour voters)

The data is from March so pre-Johnson and Swinson and in the infancy of the Brexit Party so needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. But its interesting nonetheless.

The Labour Leave vote is much more vulnerable to the Brexit Party and there isn't this Tory history to contend with.

The data also says that Labour voters are more Remain than they are Labour which could be a real issue

Patrick Maguire @ patrickkmaguire
One Labour MP for a v Brexity seat in the north-east has a nice line on this: "My Labour Leavers are more Labour than they're Leave, but my Labour Remainers are more Remain than they're Labour." Interesting to see it borne out by data

So it's been noticed on an antecodotal level too.

Jen Williams from the Manchester Evening News has been asking questions along these lines today.

Jennifer Williams @ JenwilliamsMEN
Pollsters! Has anyone done any polling of how Boris Johnson is viewed specifically in Labour leave areas? Preferably by region but that might be a bit of an ask. Thankyou kindly

Btw am after Boris Johnson approval specifically rather than the Tories, although having said that I’ll take any proper regional polling (ie not just ‘the north’), as ever

(Actually no. Not any. Proper regional polling with a decent sample size. Otherwise I’m going to get a flood of emails containing questionable surveys based on asking 10 people in Barnsley what they think.)

Matt Chorley @mattchorley
I know this is totally not what you wanted, but I got YouGov to pull this together last week. 16% of people who vote Labour in 2017 and vote Leave would now vote Tory, but 26% of them go to Brexit Party

Leaked European Parliament resolution to be voted on next week says [...] Notes strong opposition to prorogation

Did it actually say that ? Commenting on internal UK politics - no matter how germane to the EU - seems a little inflammatory ?

David Henig @davidheniguk
There's a large Customs Union shaped hole here, but there's no doubt that the EU are sending signals that the backstop can be adjusted. Question again whether the two sides are signalling as much as talking, but at least there is some talking.

Charles Grant @CER_Grant
A deal between EU and UK is more likely than I had thought - my conclusion after 2 days of meetings with EU, member-state and UK officials. Senior figures on EU side say they can scrap backstop as long as alternatives deliver on protecting a) single mkt; b) GFA. /1

They also say BJ has indicated that he can live with rest of withdrawal agreement if backstop goes. In some key national capitals BJ has made a quite good impression. But some of David Frost's meetings in BXL have lowered expectations on EU side, conveying hard red lines. /2

The essence of the deal would be to replicate effects of N I-only backstop. On agri, as BJ has said, NI would follow EU rules. In other areas: a combo of regulatory alignment with EU, and discreet controls - 'dedramatised, dematerialised, delocalised' - away from border. /3

France, Germany, Commission could go along with this, but only if UK produces serious proposals, which it has not yet done. It would have to accept role for ECJ. But what about Ireland, which says it prefers prospect of no deal to a deal sans backstop? /4

The other member-states do not want to put pressure on Ireland. But if the UK gets serious about a deal and shows flexibility, there would be gentle encouragement for Dublin to accept something almost equivalent to backstop. /5

Of course the difficulties are immense and the gaps may prove unbridgeable. Some in DUP & ERG would not like to see N I partially aligned with EU rules. But an element of consultation for Stormont on rule changes could help. /6

Also, add EU officials, in one respect BJ is right: the new UK law v no deal has taken pressure off Irish govt and UK Parliament to compromise. But some EU govts think BJ may be serious about a deal, perhaps before Oct 31. ENDS @CER_EU

I think the EU are making noises to throw things back to the UK.

I think Peter Foster's thread from yesterday which I posted quite late does reflect somewhat on this and how there's still some very real issues in practical terms and this seeming shift isn't as big as it first appears.

there's still some very real issues in practical terms and this seeming shift isn't as big as it first appears.

The danger is Brexiteers will seize on it as "proof" that the EU blinks at the last, and be tempted to over-egg the pudding ...

.

My TV's broken, so I can't even watch the BBC (only have BBC as I'm abroad). So trying to keep up via this thread. What do you think about Black Swan? Is it real, will it be released?

The danger is Brexiteers will seize on it as "proof" that the EU blinks at the last, and be tempted to over-egg the pudding ...

Agree.

Bear I assume the machine they use gives a list of similar number plates as I've used RingGo for 3 years and this is the only time it has been pointed out the last digit was incorrect. Human error obviously but not a hard one to decide - and this particular car park only has 15 spaces and was half empty at the time! Relying on tech and disengaging brains are dangerous and not as helpful as AI pushers would like us to believe.

Re Black Swan - If that isn't released I think someone will release the real Yellowhammer. The absence of terrorist threats (apparently the day after Brexit has been highlighted specifically) and some other obvious links to what happens with no fuel will be in it with more depth.

I was wandering about Black swan also, I've heard it mention on here a few times but I can't find any information about it.

Yellowhammer = A little bit of bread and no cheese

If a Black Swan event is usually an unexpected event then could the Brexit Black Swan refer to Brexit+ something else (eg flu pandemic, terrorism, cyber terrorism) that combines with the Brexit fallout to produce an extra horrifying scenario?

Boris Johnson says bridge from N Ireland to Scotland 'would only cost £15bn'

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-puts-price-on-very-good-idea-for-irish-sea-bridge-11807791

and discreet controls - 'dedramatised, dematerialised, delocalised' - away from border. /3

Sorry, I don't think there is an 'away from border' in this case. If the checks happen in Belfast or a factory in Portrush then that becomes a mini border.

"Commenting on internal UK politics - no matter how germane to the EU - seems a little inflammatory ?"

DG The EU criticises govt policy or actions in Hungary and Poland,
because they are criticising moving away from democratic principles

Yes, only one party is doing that, but they can't refrain from criticism in order to remain politicall neutral between democrats and anti-democrats

It is shameful that the recent actions of the UK govt have moved us into the category of countries whose democrcy is in danger,
but the EU learned that staying quiet so as not to be called ""interfering" didn't work.