A thread about whether the talk of a NI only backstop is viable
Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Can No 10's new approach to Northern Irish backstop break the #Brexit impasse? Tldr; it's a tall order - politically and technically.
Been doing a lot of asking about..here's what I discovered. 1/thread
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/11/boris-johnsons-all-ireland-backstop-could-answer-wont-easy/
Boris Johnson's all-Ireland backstop could be the answer - but it won't be easy
To start with, let's be clear what No 10 is/isn't talking about.
They are ruling out an "NI-only" backstop which leaves Northern Irealand in EU's customs area and single market for the areas necessary to deliver a fully open border. /2
This is the NI-only backstop @MichelBarnier has in his bottom draw.
It was proposed in early 2018 and rejected by UK because it turned NI into a regulatory exclave of the EU.
No.10 and DUP say it remains unacceptable. BUT..../3
The UK is now considering, with DUP blessing apparently, that Northern Ireland should follow EU rules on plant and animal product regs ("SPS" in the jargon) in the hope that that forms launch pad for an agreement that fixes the border. Question. Can it? /4
To answer that question, you need to go back to what EU and Ireland says the deal must achieve, by whatever means:
1) a fully open Irish border
2) preservation of all-Ireland economy
3) north-south co-operation under Good friday
These, it says, are the bedrock of peace /5
Why? Because once you start creating two competing regulatory trade environments you create a differential that can be arbirtraged, that encourages crime, causes cost and friction to those on border, requires policing...in short destabilising spiral. /6
Given the above, does a UK offer to align on SPS rules do the trick? Does it create an open borer and all-Ireland economy?
The short answer is it does not.
These only account for about 30 per cent of checks at a border.
And UK offer is miles short on the rest. /7
The most gaping hole is on customs.
Per No 10 briefing the UK will NOT allow Northern Ireland to remain in the customs territory of the EU.
Instead it believe this issue can be sorted by technology and exemptions? But this will NOT fly with the EU. Why? /8
Well. The border starts with customs...which is knowing what is coming in to a territory, and where...that's how you know what to check, what tarriff to collect, what to enforce. See this @hayward_katy diagram below. /9