The Brexit Arms

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Hold the line Brexiters!!

Nearly there...

Only 53 days to go!

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A Border in the Irish sea is not the exclusive business of Ireland. It would cause all sorts of issues with trading relations with rUK especially Scotland. It would also inevitably lead to calls for a similar arrangement between Scotland and England and open up a whole can of worms should there be another Indyref.

That said the current rules regarding agricultural and food safety are on this basis and could therefore be extended. Scotland and England have segregated regimes in place already as well. Agriculture is the bulk of the Irish border issue. Everything else is already done away from the border. Therefore there is likely a way to finesse around these distinctions within existing arrangements.

howabout a judicial challenge to a primary bill would be pretty unusual though?

Apologies for the link but it looks like Border in the Sea is back on the table
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/10/brexit-eu-looks-to-northern-ireland-only-backstop-to-break-deadlock

DUP are reported as saying NI only Backstop would be unacceptable.

@ParkerPen

Correct. So back to square one again

Looking more closely at what others are saying the legal challenge would not come until after Boris decides to ignore the Benn Bill. Logic being that IF the legislation were to actually bind the Executive in its prerogative powers then Bercow was incorrect in his ruling on Queen's consent. Thus Boris and the Executive, following Bercow's ruling, can treat the Bill as merely advisory - unlike the Referendum where the leaflet I received confirmed Government would implement the outcome . In effect the Art 50 case meant that the Referendum legislation could be treated as advisory thus requiring further Parliamentary input to trigger Art 50.

Thinking seems to be that the Government is being deliberately cagey atm to rob its opponents of time and to allow them to dig themselves deeper. There is also the possibility that Boris will be deposed by VoNC in his Queen's speech or will reach a deal with the EU. Either of these outcomes would mean the extension legislation not being triggered. My money is on Government putting a direct challenge to the Act in the Queen's speech to provoke VoNC. (not recommending anyone place bets based on this thinking though )

There's unacceptable and there's wads of cash attached to something similar with a different name.

My money is on Government putting a direct challenge to the Act in the Queen's speech to provoke VoNC.

Would make sense - although if that happens around the 14th October and Government loses - doesn’t that then give the Opposition 14 days to command the confidence of the House? Or would we be into GNU territory?

Yep the 14 days would kick in, but then it wouldn't be Boris asking for the extension. Forming a GNU having refused a GE twice before is terrible optics imho. Would have been much safer for opposition to accept offer of GE yesterday

Thanks for your considered and interesting synopsis howabout, it has made for a measured and informative read after the chaos of last night. Good to know some cool heads still exist out there!

Cheers 🍻

Have been listening to a radio interview with the Brexit writer from the Sunday Times who leaked headlines from Project Yellowhammer which the government should be releasing tomorrow following yesterday’s motion.

She stated that Michael Gove said that if the full report was released to the public, no one would agree to Brexit.

no one would agree to Brexit.
I bet they would. The report, produced by experts in their field, will just be wafted away by clueless politicians as project fear and the public will believe them and dismiss the expert knowledge. It'll also be spun as the EU trying to kill us. If we've learnt nothing else by now we should at least have learnt that facts and experts are completely irrelevant to Leavers, that's why Dominic Cummings didn't bother using them.

I thought yellow hammer was worst case scenario stuff?

Kenn not true. What brexit has shown us is that that remainer experts will spin it that way and ditto leave experts.

There are experts on both sides.
Also in recent times, experts were wrong about credit crunch, wrong about lifting work controls in the UK from Eastern Europe, wrong about head counts and wrong about the euro.

As with experts, statistics, facts, fiction, personal experience and knowledge... The truth will be found in that mix.

The report was updated in August this year from worst scenario to most likely. Deadline set for its release in parliament is 11am tomorrow. Whether the full report becomes public, who knows.

Are they releasing it to the public or making it available to MPs. Two different things.

I'm not sure it's going to have the intended effect of changing a lot of minds, I think we have gone too far past that. I will however reserve judgement until tomorrow.

Come 11am tomorrow some people will probably lose all sense of perspective and stockpile food/drugs/fuel immediately thus causing a so called 'no deal' Brexit effect whilst still being in the EU😲

On the subject of Boris/Cummings strategy - this is a pretty good observational piece:

reaction.life/what-if-dominic-cummings-is-right/

Everybody behaving as predicted in Parliament has done the job required

Interesting article Dusty

However, voters will have heard his clear desire to do so and they have subsequently witnessed him being blocked by Parliament. It was always going to be near impossible to get either a deal or no-deal through this parliament, but he needed the obstacles to doing so to be formalised and his opponents have duly obliged

Too many MPs throwing their toys out of their prams, eg. proroguing debacle last night and Grieve’s request for MPs mobile phone info (a step too far in my opinion) to be able to see how this could be detrimental to their cause.

Perception/interpretation matters when trying to win votes.

From what i see on social media, leavers are blaming ALL politicians, not just remainers.

I also don't get why Cummings is considered this mastermind, he didn't exactly work wonders at Education, when he was Goves advisor, the reforms are generally accepted to be have been terrible.

He helped leave win a referendum, where remain were never more than 3% ahead, well within the margin of error, i would say Farage had a greater impact on how people voted.

He reminds me of that football manager, the Special One... who turned out to be anything but.

From what i see on social media, leavers are blaming ALL politicians, not just remainers

Yes, I would be in that category and have been for some time but I do think last nights muppet show was a step too far.

I also don't get why Cummings is considered this mastermind

I believe he has a strategy (time will tell whether it’s successful) but I don’t see anyone else with one at the moment. He is playing it like a chess game while everyone else flaps around. He is the remainers hate figure of the moment (which gives Farage a break for a while).

Carry on Parliament.
Do you really think this plays well to the EU.
I hope they think let's end crazy and no extension.

What are your views on border in the sea @mummmy2017 ?

Really the only way out of this impasse is revoke, Boris is one of only a few people in the country who could pull it off. More than 50% of the population would breathe a sigh of relief that it was all over

Johnson will either have to resign or ask for an extension.

France is talking about a 2 year one! i can almost see Mummy and Copper imploding!