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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 08/09/2019 14:16

We enter week 2 of what might be considered 'the end game'.

The Conservative Party has made it clear that liberals are not welcome in their ranks. It has become the Brexit Party.

Farage is talking of a pact, though Javid has said no. What would Javid know though, he's only in the Cabinet.

Amber Rudd has resigned. She will run as an independent in an unnamed constituency at the next election. The assumption must therefore be she has been talking to a few people this week about this, though whether that means she is a 'One Nation Tory' independent candidate or simply an independent isn't clear.

Some think that her departure will deal Johnson yet another blow at the polls. Others think as the cabinet members with the worst satisfaction rating amongst tory party members this will be viewed positively by leavers and give Johnson a bounce in the polls.

It been reported that Cummings has overruled Johnson on at least key decisions this week which raises the question of who is in charge and running the show.

Cummings has promised to make us all melt in the coming weeks as he takes a sledge hammer to constitutional convention. He's advised no 10 staff to be 'cool like Fonzies'. A reference to pulp fiction and to happy days. As some have commented if you think about Cummings as some one who has watched too much Tarantino it does make him make a lot more sense.

There are suggestions that Johnson will break the rule of law in refusing to ask for an extension and the No10 have a trick up their sleeve over loopholes. The most obvious thing here being to offer the EU a deal they can't possibly refuse agree too to smear them and to then make it impossible for the EU to agree to an extension which noises out of France seem to suggest anyway.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting...

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BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2019 18:20

If the Rebel Alliance stick together, that PM would be Corbyn, not a Tory

flouncyfanny · 08/09/2019 18:21

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Hasenstein · 08/09/2019 18:22

According to the HoL Library Briefing, invoking the CCA triggers a maximum 7 day period of application before approval by both houses is required:

The regulations must be laid before Parliament as soon as is practicable, and they would lapse after seven days if not approved by both Houses of Parliament.

I guess timing is all, in this case. A short gasp to get us over the line if we need to get past the automatic No Deal trigger date of 31 August? How long would the government have to hold out/stall between the end of prorogation and 24th August and how could they waste fill that time?

flouncyfanny · 08/09/2019 18:25

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Driedlimes · 08/09/2019 18:28

@BigChocFrenzy
Latest from Peter Foster sounds most probable.
Javid I reckon will be sacrificial lamb. He seemed delighted to be in on a cunning plan on Marr today!

Re JR - this would all be unprecedented but given the time found by the judiciary for the prorogation hearings I'd expect they'd get on with it immediately if necessary.

Also - status quo is now the extension act. Courts should normally insist status quo remains pending full hearings in case of delay

JeSuisPoulet · 08/09/2019 18:29

BCF a risky strategy for BoZo (will he want to relinquish the thrown knowing how public opinion is against him?), but one Cummings might be keen to propose; esp if his contract runs out at end 31st Oct. BoZo would need 'guidance' of course, before attempting a re-run at PM...

Hasenstein · 08/09/2019 18:29

Coming back to ATAD, as DGR had already mentioned:

A good reminder of the motives of those who have driven and funded the whole Brexit movement:

www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/a-reminder-of-all-the-brexiteers-who-appeared-in-the-paradise-papers-as-eu-tax-avoidance-legislation-looms/03/09/

Some of the Btl comments are very interesting, too.

MockersthefeMANist · 08/09/2019 18:29

You are starting to talk about the situation when Queenie steps in as our constitutional backstop and has Bozza carted off to the Tower.

DeRigueurMortis · 08/09/2019 18:31

Sorry - daft question...

Can BJ resign as PM but still be leader of the Conservative Party?

yolofish · 08/09/2019 18:32

those with ohfuckrucksacks: where will you go? (not stalking honest). Just that in my potentially gridlocked for ever corner of SE Kent, there will be NOwhere to go...

Hazardtired · 08/09/2019 18:33

What the fuck would i put in DP's oh fuck rucksake?!! Daily meds then med protocol 1, med protocol 2, then there's all manner of hell is going wrong med protocol 3 which will result in going back to med protocol 2.

It would need to be a suitcase.

MockersthefeMANist · 08/09/2019 18:36

Can BJ resign as PM but still be leader of the Conservative Party?

Yes. Neville Chamberlain did in 1940. He died later that year, shortly after resigning as leader.

JeSuisPoulet · 08/09/2019 18:37

Off topic slightly but I am amazed a lot of Leavers aren't asking more Q about Cummings, as he clearly is in control. Yes it is going in their direction at the moment (if you take for granted the fact they don't understand what loosing a slim majority means) but for all that is out there in the media about him we know:
a) he hates the Tories - see his interviews about them after the Leave campaign
b) his wife is MC and writes for a more left leaning mag
c) he has broken up the Tory party and lost them a majority
d) he thinks we will all colonise the moon
e) started this jaunt on "don't trust experts" yet is possibly the most educated/keen to show his intelligence in the political arena.

DeRigueurMortis · 08/09/2019 18:40

Thank you Mockers.

So I'm presuming he quits as PM, sends someone else from the Cabinet to ask for the extension.

Then fights an election that he didn't break his promise and assumes he's going to win with a majority and this can trigger no deal (whilst also as a parallel plan going to the Supreme Court and running down the clock).

Basilpots · 08/09/2019 18:41

@JeSuisPoulet

Not forgetting the unelected bureaucrat element.

I know you lot won’t fail me.

DeRigueurMortis · 08/09/2019 18:42

Yes JeSuis I wonder at that also.

Aside from a pay check what's his "real" endgame here.

Ego??? Winning??? Or something more sinister eg a will to break the system using BJ as his Trojan Horse?

JeSuisPoulet · 08/09/2019 18:44

I still feel strangely sorry for his wife and wider family.
I know last time we looked her up on here we had a bit of a "champagne socialism" moment, but really they won't be the ones who win out of this, no matter how it ends.

bellinisurge · 08/09/2019 18:46

@yolofish , family a couple of miles away and also about 20 miles away.

flouncyfanny · 08/09/2019 18:49

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Hoooo · 08/09/2019 18:49

In other news:
Jan/feb 2020 to be coldest for years- another beast from the east

DGRossetti · 08/09/2019 18:51

e) started this jaunt on "don't trust experts" yet is possibly the most educated/keen to show his intelligence in the political arena.

www.facebook.com/OfficialQI/posts/word-of-the-day-ultracrepidarian-a-person-who-criticises-judges-or-gives-advice-/2872163599464824/

Westminstenders: The Rule of Law
RedToothBrush · 08/09/2019 18:51

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
No, the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 does not come to the aid of Brexiters

This much-misunderstood statute does not say what the Brexiters think it says

Will try to find time this week to set out what that Act does say

But in essence, if you are planing in advance to use emergency legislation, then it would not be an emergency

And the use of the statute is strict, and subject to tight judicial and parliamentary controls

It is not an Enabling Act, however much Brexiters would want it to be

Hmm I have my doubts about how this could be enforced in a crisis....

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Basilpots · 08/09/2019 18:52

@DeRigueurMortis

This is where I am.

I don’t believe that the Kinnock amendment was a mistake. Pull the other one.

It can be spun as a trap door for Labour and the rebel MPs to fall into so ‘No deal’ can be avoided by passing the only agreement we have.

When in actual fact it is an escape hatch for Johnson to escape through whilst preserving his hard man no dealer status.

They are full of it.

MockersthefeMANist · 08/09/2019 18:53

Cummings is an ardent Russophile and fluent Russian speaker. The sort of thing that might agitate the Daily Mail in other circumstances.

DeRigueurMortis · 08/09/2019 18:54

You could well be right Basil