Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

Well, if Corbyn wants votes, the next few days might yet be the making of him, if it seems he has the upper hand regarding an election. For one person on this thread, how many are there in the real world ?
I'm in the real world. I'll never vote for him

Well done Jess Phillips. I'm a bit teary now.
She sounds so normal and no latin!

Caroline Lucas is talking sense too.

Is the HOL being televised?

The Tory MPs speaking aren't very diverse, are they?

Is the HOL being televised?

It’s getting rather late; they’ll all be dozing off!

Cwenthryth - thank you, I missed when she was called by the Speaker. Thought Thelma Walker's point (a quote from BJ?) about the HoC being theatre and the real business being behind closed doors in meetings was important. How much does debate really shift things? I know that yesterday, it did - JRM driving minimum 4 MPs to rebel - but is that common?

Yes you can watch thw HoL debate too from the parliamentary chanel.

Bizarre about the Kinnock amendment, but I’m wondering if it could be a game-changer and could cause an earthquake on the Tory benches...

Surely if the WA is brought back at the 11th hour, won’t a significant number of the “normal” Tories feel obliged to vote for it given the hideous alternatives.... even if only another 20 did it would damage the Tories enormously. ... but it could split them down the middle and tear the heart out of BJs Government.

Right now I'll vote for whoever keeps the Tory's out.

I have regularly and proudly voted for parties (Labour in the past, SNP now) knowing that it would (and did ) cost me personally more money.

I was anti the poll tax even though at the time I was a single person in a nice wee cottage on my own, so that it meant I was actually paying less . The fact that there was no mechanism for ability to pay was just wrong.

I believe in paying taxes for a proper, caring society . One that values the NHS (properly funded of course ), education (no coincidence that my mum was a teacher and my dad was a doctor who refused to do any private work ), libraries, social care, looks after the most vulnerable.....

I'm fortunate. I have my health. I've been well educated (at state expense ). I've been able to earn good money. I've worked hard for that. But I also recognise that with my good fortune comes responsibility - and that a functioning, caring society is something that benefits everyone in the long run.

Bringing it back to Brexit: that's why I don't mind that the UK is a net contributor: it is to the UK's benefit that other, less well-off countries are helped to develop. At the most basic level, if their economies develop, then they're likely to become potential customers for UK products and services. Eventually, like Ireland , they will become net contributors.

BCF that would be epic... But won't happen.

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Latest intel from the red benches. If Lords sits thru night and don't adjourn until after 10.30am tmrw (Thurs), it is still technically a 'Wednesday' until peers decide otherwise.

In parl terms, it could still be 'Wednesday' in Lords for several days until peers sort things.

This matters cos the Lab motion refers to Benn [Rooker] bill clearing all stages by 5pm 'Friday'.

To paraphrase Morrissey, #everydayislikeWednesday.

So it can be Wednesday until Monday when it has to come back to the Commons.

They are literally Time Lords.

"If the WA goes through and the calls for a GE are rejected, then does that thwart Johnson/Cummings’ no-deal plan"

YES - Passing the WA automatically means we Brexit and WITH a deal
It is a failsafe way to avoid No Deal

Noone can No Deal after that, regardless of who wins the GE,
because the WA is an international treaty

In the sort term, during transition we keep all the main EU benefits, so meds & food supplies will be OK
For me, that's a priority: taking the stress of people like Hazard, her DP - and those who can't even afford to buy meds abroad

I would expect the transition to be extended repeatedly, as negotiations will take years - the WA can be amended by both parties to allow these extensions.

"pay but no say" and keeping all the other EU benefits looks brilliant compared to the alternative of No Deal
With the HoC likely to dither for years, we'd stay like that until they finally decide what they want.

Longterm, at a minimum, it keeps the NI backstop and avoids a return of the Troubles
Best case is the backstop means even a Tory govt would rather have an SM-type future trade deal, because a US FTA would activate the backstop

Division....

I thought it was at 10pm..

Here we go DIVISION!!!!

"BCF that would be epic... But won't happen."

With Brexit, "Never say never"

oakenbeach, I dont think its just the Tories but also the Labour that would feel they HAVE TO vote for the WA.

And tbh I've thought for a long time now that this was the only alternative anyway.

I am a remainer at heart but I am also convinced the the UK needs to get out the EU. And that there is no mandate in this country for staying (Levers want to leave of course, remainers want to stay out of fear rather than because of what the eu is iyswim).
I cant see anyother way out of this mess. (Revoke or No Deal will be unacceptable to half the population and therefore impossible to implement wo major disruptions/issues)

Result in 10-15 mins

Late to the party this week. Do we want an election? Aye or Noe?

I think Bercow just got bored/hungry there and decided to call the vote
Bet there’s a lot of MPs in the canteen/bar now scrambling to get back to the lobbies

Did my ipad just skip a bit or did Bercow just start shouting for a division mid Lloyd Russel-Moyle talking?

434 the magic number.

Nicholas Soames on Newsnight last night seemed to think that BJ genuinely wants some kind of deal.

I agree... on the Brexit Spectrum, BJ is by no means at the far end at the most extreme... He ultimately voted for the WA at the 3rd attempt after all. He’s being pulled further to the far end of the spectrum than he’d want to be naturally due to the inexorable pull of the extreme Brexit cult worshipped by so many of its members.

No we don’t want an election YET

Twitter seems to think the Kinnock amendment requires a debate but isn't legally binding on a vote on the WA mark657546.

However it could be useful at the eleventh hour to get a vote if needed (by either side of the House) as by simply by having a debate its easier to facilitate a vote. Equally if Labour etc don't want one, they can dodge the bullet of a vote.

I THINK it's generally speaking good for everyone one way or another, and does lean toward preventing no deal by accident though legally isn't strong enough to compel a vote (parliamentary numbers are that if its the only option left, this problem shouldn't be the biggest hurdle to over come if there really is a determination to avoid no deal at all costs, which I think there is).

Jess Phillips 🏅

"It is an abomination... you have sat by silently while your colleagues have been marched out"