Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

Why is no deal any more likely after a GE

If Johnson wins, then he has said he will leave on Oct 31st, deal or no deal.

There's also this:

Jessica elgot@jessicaelgot
Trouble on the Tory benches - I hear many MPs feel very strongly that they wish to back the Kinnock amendment on Theresa May's deal and are communicating very strong feelings to the Tory whips that they will be incensed if asked to vote against.

Think Tory whips could get round it by whipping to abstain but huge numbers of MPs have defended May's deal to the hilt on the airwaves and are really not prepared to vote against bringing it back - even though amendment will probably ultimately still fail

Johnson trying to head off a full scale mutiny? Or did the mutiny happen to allow the amendment through despite Johnson?

Cwenthryth I think it’s because at the moment it’s likely that the Tories would win a majority at a GE before 31st Oct thereby giving them the oomph to get no deal over the line. I think. I mainly lurk. I’m going back to that now.

If Johnson wins, then he has said he will leave on Oct 31st, deal or no deal.
Yes - but if this anti-no-Brexit bill passes the Lords, then that is the law, even after a GE?

Cheering on Ken here.
I've had a few hours break - went out for a run and baked a cake. So, trying to rapidly catch up.

Yes - but if this anti-no-Brexit bill passes the Lords, then that is the law, even after a GE

I think it can be repealed?

If there’s a new govt with a majority after a GE then it’s easy to repeal any prior legislation that gets in their way.

@Cwenthryth Because it is very possible he would have a majority- with more MPs in favour of no deal Brexit, and could easily get a no deal through.

At the moment, he can drag things on and no deal by default- but parliament can try to force him to ask for an extension, and try to stop no deal- it would be difficult for him to ignore a law passed by parliament to force him to at least ask for an extension.

Having a large right wing majority would also be scary for the country for other reasons.

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
Think Tory whips could get round it by whipping to abstain but huge numbers of MPs have defended May's deal to the hilt on the airwaves and are really not prepared to vote against bringing it back - even though amendment will probably ultimately still fail

(No this is as clear as mud as to the effect / meaning of this to me too)

Yes - but if this anti-no-Brexit bill passes the Lords, then that is the law, even after a GE

I think it can be repealed?

Yes, no Parliament can bind it's successors. It could be repealed by a majority Con/BXP govt.

Nicholas Watt@nicholaswatt
Here is what happened on Stephen Kinnock amendment according to source in anti no deal group. Govt deliberately didn’t put up tellers to oppose because they knew Labour leadership was also opposed to Kinnock. Hope was that if it went through Labour would drop support for bill

Labour leadership not happy but still sticking by Hilary Benn bill so it has just completed its final commons stage. There were deep nerves in anti no deal group. Philip Hammond had pleaded with group to reject Kinnock, fearing it would kill bill. Others ignored him

Corbyn is right to not want an election right now
as he would likely lose
and it would be timed to allow no deal to go through

so by letting Bozo stew till late November and then doing a VONC
he has a chance of winning

then again the party conferences are coming up

surreal times

To be fair, if the current MPs are trying to resist a GE because they believe a GE would back No Deal then I'm not impressed. I thought it was because they believed the government would set an election for the 1st Nov and push through No Deal without a mandate to do so.

Mark Harper just admitted on LBC that if they win election they will repeal the bill and can do whatever they want with Brexit.

@Piggywaspushed - Mayor Dave is often in Bedford Library on a Saturday morning. In fact he’s quite easy to find if you need him.

Theo Usherwood*@theousherwood*
Labour didn’t bite at third reading by voting down the Bill. So it goes to the Lords where peers can take the Kinnock change out if they want.

Nicholas Watt@nicholaswatt
If peers take the Kinnock amendment out then bill will have to come back to commons on Monday. If bill unamended in lords it will be ready for royal assent on Friday night assuming opposition timeframe sticks

Theo Usherwood @theousherwood
Which of course gives the Government the increased likelihood of the Bill failing to receive Royal Assent if Labour want to amend it and take out the return of the Withdrawal Agreement.

I think it would be another hung parliament though. Conservatives might still be the biggest party but hugely unlikely for there to be a majority for no deal. Bit shocking that JC has such little confidence in himself/his party that he thinks he would lose a GE so badly that the house would have a majority for no deal, it’s never had that before.

then again the party conferences are coming up

Can he 'unprorogue' Parliament?

I guess that would be a trip to the Queen again?

Angus Macneil is very shouty!!

I have seen him be very passionate in his speeches.

Can’t see the Torys really wanting to retain Scotland long term after it has run out of oil. Without Scotland they are basically guaranteed to win huge majorities in every GE

Rowena
@rowena_kay
Jessica tweeted something rather important earlier about why Johnson might need that amendment to pass without admitting he wanted it to....

Quote Tweet

Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot

Trouble on the Tory benches - I hear many MPs feel very strongly that they wish to back the Kinnock amendment on Theresa May's deal and are communicating very strong feelings to the Tory whips that they will be incensed if asked to vote against.

Can’t see the Torys really wanting to retain Scotland long term after it has run out of oil. Without Scotland they are basically guaranteed to win huge majorities in every GE

This does give us a country to move to; I certainly don't want to live in a Tory England forever.

I will be interested to see what happens in the Constituencies with the Tory rebels. What if, in Wantage the Tories put up a rebadged UKIPer against Ed Vaizey? A split vote at best, I would have thought.