Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

Emily Greenwich is massive for what you're saying. People hear Greenwich and assume the village or Blackheath type areas. But Greenwich borough has some exceptionally deprived areas almost butting straight onto those more thought of area. I remember the battling for funds that used to go on because people assumed Greenwich was all leafy and rich.

Continuity I think it's that any bills that have got through both HoC and HoL and are only awaiting the formality of assent have to be completed. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.

Met Starmer has also said although he disagrees with TM politically he respected her and also appreciated that she was very thorough and diligent and had there been any possible alternative to the backstop she would have found it. Which makes me believe that the ‘alternative arrangements’ is nonsense from Johnson.

That was in The Political Party Podcast.

Humour me, why don't we want a mid October election, because BJ has a chance of winning? And then he'll take us out without a deal? But what if the delay bill is passed first?

What do we want? To get the delay bill through and then have an election later, why would this increase the chance of 'not BJ' winning?

Is there even time before preroguation(?) to a) force a delay and then b) decide about an election?

Argh, I take my eyes off it for half a day and I'm confused!

Earlier conversation on here about youth being more liberal/left leaning, generally nicer people.

I rememberd that old thing about everyone young is a leftie, and you get more right wing as you get older... I met an acquaintance out dogwalking yesterday, she's in her 70s and I am 58. We both agreed that we are getting further left as we get older. Not sure what, if anything, this proves!

Nicholas Soames' I think only interview today was with Sky. Very interesting clip where he is asked whether he thinks BloJob is a good leader for the Cons - he demurs and demurs and finally says he is not (or words to that effect).

I'm very disappointed indeed to hear Nicola Sturgeon now supporting a mid October election.

It is possible that we have passed the point where it is worth the SNP fighting further to end Brexit. There is only so far they will go to try and save rUK from WM.

A GE now would massively increase their numbers, and further solidify their mandate for independence, which they will use to demand powers from WM for an indyref.

Because if the vote through an election before tbe anti No Deal legislation is set in law, Johnson, as PM can unilaterally change the date to tbe election to another date which means we could no Deal. And him promising not to isn't enough. The PM has the power to do it.

TheMShip Sorry, you’re right. It’s a big ask to get a No Deal bill through before next Monday though, especially if Tories try and filibuster.

Lords opposition members getting ready for the fillerbusting by bringing duvets and supplies. Over 100 amendments each taking g half hour to vote on not counting debate time think we need to lob them a few sandwiches! Rumour has it Tories looking at all sorts to linger it out. About time HoL was abolished .

Bercow just ruled the bill does not require Queens consent.

This means it doesn't need royal Assent

Kate McCann @kateemccann
Behind the scenes in Whitehall there are some fraught conversations going on about what might happen tonight and what to do next.

If PM loses FTPA vote tonight (likely) some say he should table a bill to trigger an election that way - requires simple majority so might have more chance BUT government sources fear amendments and can’t be sure they’d get a majority anyway...

Corbyn could trigger a vote of no confidence, but to get an election all parties would have to admit they can’t govern (unlikely) and there are big concerns about the length of time that takes anyway.

Spokesman for the PM said just now that Johnson sees an election increasingly as the only way to deliver Brexit given parliament’s position. But source told me it’s likely session will be prorogued, Queen’s speech happens and “we’ll see where we get to from there”

Summing up the situation, in what would previously be considered unparliamentary language, one government source said: “Basically, it’s a shitshow”.

I missed Bercow's ruling. On what basis did he rule that the bill did not require the Queen's consent?

....because Benn is still talking about it being given Royal Assent

OK I'm slightly confused

Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall
Bercow ruling that Queen's Consent is not required for the Benn bill.

This is important. Removes one of primary hopes of the government to block it.

To be clear Queen's Consent and Royal Assent are different things:

Queen's Consent: more esoteric, required when it's deemed legislation affects the royal preogative. Is occasionally denied.

Royal Assent: royal authorisation given at end of legislative process. Never denied.

If Johnson tries to deny Royal Assent (not done since the reign of Queen Anne) it would be unprecedented in the democratic era (indeed, before the democratic era) and unconstitutional. Oh and probably destroy the monarchy.

Jim Pickard@pickardje
apparently amendments will be allowed tonight to the FTPA (triggering an election) motion, but it's not clear yet whether they would have legal force: if so Labour would be expected to seek to amend it so that there can be no election without an EU deal.....

From Jonathan Freeland's column today:

I’m told that MPs are pondering a means to ensure their will is done over the head of the prime minister: one senior opposition figure has a bill ready that would mandate the Speaker, John Bercow, to apply to Brussels himself for that extension on behalf of the British parliament.

people assumed Greenwich was all leafy and rich.

The same can be said for Oxford, which has some extremely wealthy areas but some extremely deprived.

A GE now would massively increase their numbers [SNP], and further solidify their mandate for independence, which they will use to demand powers from WM for an indyref.

A dangerous game, because Johnson is not likely to honour any demands.

Ahem, I did mention Queen’s Consent earlier... from what I’ve read on Parliament website, royal assent is an automatic part of prorogation.

Re Cherry case. It failed this morning but appeal to be heard tomorrow.

It seems there is a big deal here about disclosure. If you remember they only released stuff on government email then switched to private email. The former being disclosed the later withheld with the argument that it wasn't asked for (legally this doesn't stand up as its not full disclosure)

Ministers and civil servants didn't sign a witness statement about reasons why they want prorogation either.

David Allen Green speculated on why this might be:

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Ok

Three possible explanations

1. Jucy - prior tactical decision not to provide one, as not be helpful

2. Jucier - could not be finalised/agreed in time, as things could not be helpfully presented

3. Juiciest- Minister could not or would not sign it, because of legal peril

He thought it likely to be 2.

However its turned out to be 3.

Dominic Grieve asked a question about it at PMQ.

There was talk that Mark Sedwill was being thrown under the bus by no 10 yesterday but important to note this:

Richard Owen @R1chardOwen
Is there a briefing somewhere on the implications of not providing a sworn statement?

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
More important is that it is a criminal offence to sign one when you know it to be false

So if Sedwill refused to sign, does that mean the opposite? That the Cabinet office is throwing responsibility back to No10 for putting it in an impossible position and unable to sign the document.

This is significant because if the reasons and advice given to the Queen for prorogation were false and she was lied to then the court may be able to rule that prorogation is unlawful.

This would however, be a somewhat incendiary ruling... To put it mildly.

That was a beautiful slap down on Cash by Burt

I'm getting brexit party promoted tweets. Someone must be spending a lot of money.

Oh Keir, if only you were the Labour Party leader, you would win by an absolute landslide.

That's why BJ coming across as bumbling and being outwitted by cleverer opponents just reinforces his core support

So how does one win against that?