Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

Late PMK, busy doing all the last day of the holidays treats/jobs early so I can binge watch again later!

And what's with the right hand feeling in his [BlowJobCum's] jacket inner pocket ?

He thinks he's Churchill it makes him look Churchillian

I would be creful with the idea that all bubbles are the same too.

My dcs go to a private school. Best one on the NE blablabla. Some children there are coming from family who have money. My dcs feel like we are 'rich'. They are CONVINCED we are rich.
We're not. Absolutely and totally not. At best we are middle middle class, not even upper middle class with the money to match.

But they feel like it, in their little bubble because next to them is Middlesbrough and some of the most deprived areas in the UK. Because in their environement, the town we live in, a family where two adults are earning the average wage are already well off. RICH.

Now compare that to the parents of an affluent area around london.

All bubbles arent equal.

I can see the logic of wanting a GE before Brexit, as Labour winning that would negate the 2016 ref result

However, the problem is that Labour - under Corbyn - are likely to lose and let BJ in for a full 5-year term

It is only in the UK that I have often heard the insult "too clever by half"

Or this weird thing where people say "not everyone is academic" but funnily enough they only say it about schools in WC areas...and the DC at leafy schools tend to do 10 GCSEs and the ones at inner city academies no matter how clever mainly get stuck with a weird hodge podge of GCSEs and BTECs and no foreign languages or seperate sciences and are already disadvantaged at 16. It's almost like they are doing it on purpose.

Auld Alliance I deliberately write "peoplel's willy", to show what I think it's based on !

Bazilpots That was sort of what I meant by ignore. Like someone I heard recently complaining that the Police should move on the homeless drinkers on a bench on our High Street because they were very quick to move his son on when he and his friends were “harmlessly” underage drinking there.....

Agree with those saying later the election the better.

However Nicola Sturgeon isn’t helping by accusing Labour of being scared of facing the polls.

So, is it likely that if the anti-no-deal bill fails to become law, Labour and other anti-no-deal parties won’t allow a GE? So they could wait until 14th Oct and then VoNC to get a GNU as a last resort? Then the rest of September and beginning of October could be used to tighten up support for a GNU? No-deal won’t have been prevented in the mean time and so Johnson’s “negotiating strategy” won’t have been removed. Therefore it will be all Johnson’s fault that a deal won’t have been agreed. Brexiters shown to be useless and GNU now welcomed to bring in PV and resolve the matter?

I know Emily and if they can’t ignore they ‘reframe’ or excuse.

I saw that Theresa May was sitting next to Ken Clarke in Parliament. This means that they must have renenabled their passes at least. Does it mean they haven't expelled them and threats to do so were for show?

The money the Conservatives are proposing spending, does this include any of the money that all the areas have been told they need to save over the last 10 years, if so its not really 'new' money is it ? More the money they should have been getting ? I wonder if the 'new' money is more than all the money they have been made to save ?

Omg! The SNP is about to spoil everything! Labour wants to hold off a GE but the SNP are going g to vote for October election and the numbers show the government will win by a couple of votes if you factor in SNP. Labour will lose an early election and those poor Tory rebels have lost their jobs for nothing if the SNP go for it!

Now this is interesting, from the Guardian live blog today:

Labour’s position on the timing of an election is shifting. These are from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, reflecting what was said at today’s meeting of the parliamentary Labour party. (See 11.50am.)

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
1. ok - last night official line from Labour was they will back an election 'as the Bill to stop No Deal becomes law.' - and the statement referred to Friday night

2. Now, Labour MPs say Keir Starmer told them at the PLP that Labour will NOT vote for an election until the bill has been passed AND implemented, which means AFTER October 19th - which obviously means no chance election until much later on

No, it isn't frumpety.

And it's another reason why the GE needs to be resisted.

People aren't going to see any changes for that money. It's peanuts compared to what's been lost, and it will go nowhere. If it even materialises.

It's an election fluffer, that's all.

So, it would be smart to let it get spent (or strangely disappeared) before a GE - so people can see all that.

Two interesting points from the interview with Keir Starmer on the Today programme this morning.
A) his statement that while they didn’t agree with Theresa May they did trust her to stick to her word, but that they could not say the same about Johnson.
B) the interviewer’s sounding him out on the possibility that while the Rebel Alliance would never unite to take over the government under Corbyn’s leadership, they might be prepared to do a temporary coalition to stop No Deal under the leadership of an alternative candidate - maybe a lawyer, someone with a reassuring knighthood perhaps, rhymes with Deer Farmer? Starmer skated over it without pausing for breath.

@nicolasturgeon
1/ Not allowing Johnson to cut and run for an election simply as a tactic to force through a no deal Brexit is one thing - and why opposition right to insist on passage of anti no deal Bill, BUT...
12:31 PM · Sep 4, 2019
2/ ...it’s starting to feel like Labour doesn’t want an election at all...and leaving this PM in place knowing he’ll try every trick in book to get what he wants would be irresponsible. Opposition must get Bill through and then seek to force election BEFORE Parliament prorogued.

...is what Nicola tweeted.

I do think she needs to be careful not to jump into Cummings' bear trap - but this is what might have influenced her thinking: Labour down to a single seat again (presumably Ian Murray's) and the Conservatives down to 3, the LibDems 4 and the SNP back up over 50.

However, the danger in that is that the Conservatives still managed to win an overall majority in 2015, despite only winning a single seat in Scotland and the SNP winning 56

Who's to say that won't happen again?

Argh ive not managed tonwatch anything. Whats SNP done?

I'm very disappointed indeed to hear Nicola Sturgeon now supporting a mid October election. 35 SNP + current Tory numbers is enough for a simple majority, right?

I know Sos I saw that. Need Pretty to go and have a word.

Joanna Cherry seemed quite firm on Newsnight that SNP were not in a rush to back an election not sure what’s changed.

(Wrt later election)

the numbers show the government will win by a couple of votes if you factor in SNP

pretty did you mean for a simple majority? 2/3 FTPA would take a lot more than SNP+Tory wouldn't it?

Maybe they're just trying to keep govt guessing, make them lose again and again. But that plays into the "parliament vs the people" narrative.

to prorogue anything outstanding bills which haven't had royal Assent must be completed as part of the closing procedures of parliament anyway

I don’t think that is correct.

From the Institute of Government:

Once Parliament is prorogued, most parliamentary business comes to an end and any unfinished business falls.

However, since the 1998–99 parliamentary session, it has been possible to carry over some government bills into the next session. This prevents the need to re-introduce bills from scratch in the next session, saving parliamentary time.

The decision to carry over bills is taken by the government and must be approved by MPs.

I can’t see a Bill preventing No Deal being allowed to be carried over by the Government - hence the HoL preparing for long sittings to get through all the likely amendments.

It wasn't me who mentioned a simple majority - at least not with regard to the FTPA So the SNP alone can not force an election even with the Conservatives at "full" strength.

I was talking about a majority post an election - as the Conservatives won in 2015 (with only 1 Scottish MP) and that May then squandered.