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Brexit
Original poster

Could the EU let no deal happen but give us the option to reverse?

56 replies

MyCatsHat · 30/08/2019 21:49

I’ve been thinking about brexit as you do :o

I watch a lot of news and often read brexit threads etc., but I haven’t seen this mentioned as a possibility. Could the EU refuse to do a new deal, leading to a no deal brexit, but say to the UK “you have a year (or whatever) to see if you like it and if you have another vote and vote to remain, you can reverse it all, come back and pick up where you left off.”

That way the brexiters get what they want and if it is as bad as anticipated, the pressure to have another vote will be huge and brexit could be (ultimately, effectively) avoided - not without s lot of cost but at least the disaster could be rowed back from.

Is that a mad suggestion or impossible for any reason, or has it been suggested already?

OP posts:
Dragongirl10 · 30/08/2019 21:52

Totally nuts op..why on earth would the EU want to do that?

DippyAvocado · 30/08/2019 21:57

I think other leaders, Macron in particular, have hinted that the door would not be closed. I think it would only be considered with a significant change of government.

Original poster
MyCatsHat · 30/08/2019 22:13

Because the eu would prefer us not to leave, don’t want to change the deal, and don’t want no deal. And they would like other eu countries to see an attempt to leave turning into a shitshow and us thinking better of it.

I think a situation where we had a second vote and voted remain after all would probably involve a new government anyway.

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Tanith · 30/08/2019 22:31

Using Article 49 has been mentioned a few times since the Referendum.

This is the Financial Times take from 2017:
www.ft.com/content/9f4fd278-790e-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71

Juncker appeared to welcome the idea in January 2018:
www.politico.eu/article/juncker-lets-use-article-49-to-let-the-brits-rejoin-eu/

Dontlickthetrolley · 30/08/2019 22:32

I think the way our government have behaved I wouldn't blame them if they turned round stuck up 2 fingers and told us to Fuck Off. I know they wouldn't but why would they want the shower of shit that is Farage and Co disrupting the EUP (if they could be bothered to turn up) if they didn't have to?

woman19 · 30/08/2019 22:33

Could the EU let no deal happen but give us the option to reverse

No. At this point they are holding the door open, more politely than we deserve, for us to leave.

Quite right too.

Britain in its current state would not be allowed back in for generations.

Tanith · 30/08/2019 22:59

think the way our government have behaved I wouldn't blame them if they turned round stuck up 2 fingers and told us to Fuck Off.

That's why it's important to turn out for these marches and demonstrations. One of the reasons the EU has been so patient is because they can see that so many people here don't agree with the Government's behaviour.

Original poster
MyCatsHat · 30/08/2019 23:08

Oh thanks Tanith, that’s interesting.

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Original poster
MyCatsHat · 30/08/2019 23:11

I think what I’m imagining is not having to reapply to join, but membership just restarting and carrying on as it was.

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ARudeTerriblePerson · 30/08/2019 23:14

It certainly couldn't carry on as it was, because we had extremely favourable terms. We would NEVER be granted such favourable terms again. It's only because we were reasonably early joiners, and crucial ones. that our terms have been so great.

ARudeTerriblePerson · 30/08/2019 23:19

I'm sure the UK would be welcome to reapply. It would get the same terms as any other new joiner, however. I think Macron has spelt that out before now, iirc, so we would have to have the Euro, Schengen, and far less advantageous subsidies for farmers, fishermen/women, etc. Still, we might prefer to do it that stay out.

Original poster
MyCatsHat · 30/08/2019 23:21

But that’s my point really - what i’m Suggesting is that they could effectively say “we’ll hold it open for you for a year” or some other length of time, on the same terms we had (which yes are v favourable). As an option for us to just call off a no deal brexit when the shit really hits the fan. Kind of like a toddler declaring they’re leaving home, and their parents humour them but let them change their minds when they get outside the front door.

A lot of people refuse to believe it will be bad, or just don’t understand the issues and why and how it will be bad - and are being encouraged by people like BJ to keep their heads in the sand. So this would allow us to experience the reality and then come running back.

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MissGiddyPants · 30/08/2019 23:23

Let me find you another barrel to scrape.

ARudeTerriblePerson · 30/08/2019 23:25

There are lots of implications with that kind of game playing, however. Eg, the whole workings of the institutions, whether our MEPs get to vote on stuff which may or may not affect the UK, depending on our whim, iyswim. There are loads of other countries. For the UK, it's just tough shit, really. They really can't afford to be messed around - they are already indulging us.

Charlottejbt · 30/08/2019 23:26

Vernon Bogdanor thinks a No Deal Brexit can be reversed retrospectively, although his scenario involves a pro-EU British government, elected in November, asking to rejoin without the Article 49 formalities. Who knows, it could work. I don't see Johnson being in Number 10 for long, even if he wins a landslide victory in the few days between delivering No Deal and the catastrophe that will result.

worldnewszz.com/brexit-reversal-remainers-could-block-brexit-even-after-october-31-will-of-the-people/

ARudeTerriblePerson · 30/08/2019 23:28

Oh, that looks more optimistic.

Original poster
MyCatsHat · 30/08/2019 23:30

I’m going to keep on scraping giddypants! I’ve kept faith in my belief that it won’t really happen since the referendum result, and there’s still time :)

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ARudeTerriblePerson · 31/08/2019 00:03

Just.

MysteryTripAgain · 31/08/2019 03:29

To OP

There seems to be a misconception that when UK leaves the EU they will have no further dealings with the EU. That is not the intent of either the EU nor the UK. It is the intention of both EU and UK to trade with each other in the future, but the terms have not been agreed.

Article 50 makes reference to agreeing a framework on the future relationship between the EU and the leaving member as follows:

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

EU has not followed Article 50 correctly by insisting that the Withdrawal Agreement is completed before the future relationship between EU and UK is discussed.

This guarantees that the border in Ireland becomes a problem in the event of no deal as NI is no longer governed by EU laws or treaties. Had an EU-UK trade deal been discussed and agreed in parallel with the Withdrawal Agreement UK could have left EU on 31 Oct 2019 and on 1 Nov 2019 the following day the terms of the new trade deal would commence.

I think EU have intentionally not followed Article 50 correctly in the hope that border issues on the island of Ireland result in Brexit being scrapped.

Never forget that EU does not want the UK to leave for the following reasons:

EU has a trade surplus of 64 Billion with the UK

UK is the third largest monetary donor to the EU

UK being in the EU is profitable for the EU, but is a loss making exercise for the UK. Hence the vote by UK to leave the EU and renegotiate the future relationship.

SonEtLumiere · 31/08/2019 06:37

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Dutch1e · 31/08/2019 09:02

The EU will simply not perform some sort of “Pick Me” dance to the UK being an errant husband having a mid life crisis

This is so true I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

Original poster
MyCatsHat · 31/08/2019 09:23

When you describe it as a pick me dance, then yes it does look like a humiliating option that they would not do, and I can see that.

What’s more complicated though is that a lot of us don’t want to leave, right now a majority and probably a bigger majority in a few months. so this would be the EU holding out a lifeline to the current majority, the

Though I’m a strong remainer, i’m not arguing that they would or wouldn’t, just wondering if it’s a possibility.

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Original poster
MyCatsHat · 31/08/2019 09:23

Oops the remainers.

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DippyAvocado · 31/08/2019 10:21

It would get the same terms as any other new joiner, however. I think Macron has spelt that out before now, iirc, so we would have to have the Euro, Schengen, and far less advantageous subsidies for farmers, fishermen/women, etc

Other recent joiners have not had to join the Euro. There are no plans to roll the Euro out further at the moment, given the problems the Eurozone has had. I suspect the UK could continue to be exempt from Schengen as the sea border makes it a slightly different situation to the land borders in much of the rest of Europe. We could kiss goodbye to our rebate though.

MongerTruffle · 31/08/2019 10:25

Other recent joiners have not had to join the Euro

The accession agreements of those countries include a legal obligation for them to join the Eurozone and the Schengen Area. Of course, there is no mechanism to force a member state to join them, but I doubt that the UK government would agree to a clause like that.

I suspect the UK could continue to be exempt from Schengen as the sea border makes it a slightly different situation to the land borders in much of the rest of Europe

A big part of Schengen is the abolition of border control at airports as well.