Could the EU let no deal happen but give us the option to reverse?

[MyCatsHat]

I’ve been thinking about brexit as you do :o

I watch a lot of news and often read brexit threads etc., but I haven’t seen this mentioned as a possibility. Could the EU refuse to do a new deal, leading to a no deal brexit, but say to the UK “you have a year (or whatever) to see if you like it and if you have another vote and vote to remain, you can reverse it all, come back and pick up where you left off.”

That way the brexiters get what they want and if it is as bad as anticipated, the pressure to have another vote will be huge and brexit could be (ultimately, effectively) avoided - not without s lot of cost but at least the disaster could be rowed back from.

Is that a mad suggestion or impossible for any reason, or has it been suggested already?

Those countries have a deal with the EU, not with the UK

Not completely correct. UK exports to: USA, Canada and Mexico under the NAFTT) North American Free Trade Treat) and has many bilateral agreements that are independent of the EU. EU trade deals struck with non eu countries is about 40 covering about 70 countries.

@MysteryTripAgain, you're right, apologies.

What's the total dollar-value of those deals compared to what the UK has now, do you know off the top of your head?

@Dutch1e

Don't know the exact figures. 57% of UK exports are EU related (44% direct to EU and 13% via EU trade deals with other Countries) . The remaining 43% of export is to Non EU Countries via trade deals not connected to the EU.

UK has a trade deficit of 64 Billion with the EU from the trade that is direct with the EU, even though it is the third largest donor. However, UK has a trade surplus of 44 Billion with Non EU Countries. This is why UK wants to be able to deal direct with Non EU Countries, but as member of the EU that is not possible as all such deals have to go through the EU commission.

For comparison France just about breaks even in terms of export and import from the EU. Germany, however, has a huge trade surplus with the EU.

It is neither the intent of the UK nor the EU to cease all trade between EU and UK after Brexit, but UK wants to change the terms and have the freedom to deal with Non EU countries as a prolonged trade deficit is bad for any country.

UK borrows every year to plug the trade deficit gap. Interest alone on UK debt is more than the NHS yearly running costs.

Ok, thanks @MysteryTripAgain. So the UK is cutting off over half of its existing trade deals plus the new ones coming down the pipeline that the EU has been working on for years.

Now that it's been 3 years since triggering Article 50, how many of those new non-EU deals are anything other than a copy-paste of the current deal?

And how will the UK handle the fact that most of its lovely exports are produced by EU companies or at bare minimum EU cooperation?

Livestock is basically the only British-only export that makes any real money isn't it? And the tariffs are going to kill the industry. Not only the tariffs payable by UK exporters when they no longer have EU protection but also the essentially zero import tariffs that will be demanded by every other country who know full well that the UK has no negotiating power.

I'm honestly failing to see how any of this will benefit the UK, and I'm not being snarky, just hoping you can explain it to me.

So the UK is cutting off over half of its existing trade deals plus the new ones coming down the pipeline that the EU has been working on for years

No. Both the EU and the UK want to continue to trade with each other after Brexit. If UK leaves without a deal then trade with EU will be done on WTO rules until new deals are made.

Now that it's been 3 years since triggering Article 50, how many of those new non-EU deals are anything other than a copy-paste of the current deal?

Details can be found on;

www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842

And how will the UK handle the fact that most of its lovely exports are produced by EU companies or at bare minimum EU cooperation?

Where does that come from? UK's largest export commodities are;

Fuel
Beverages and Tobacco
Materials
Food and live animals
Machinery and Transport Equipment
Chemicals

Not only the tariffs payable by UK exporters when they no longer have EU protection but also the essentially zero import tariffs that will be demanded by every other country who know full well that the UK has no negotiating power

Tariffs applied to imported goods are collected by HMRC and effectively paid by the consumer in duties. Overall effect is that imported goods cost rises and prompts people to buy locally produced goods instead.

EU has tariffs, but not the same in every member state. That's why you can buy cigarettes in Spain much more cheaply in than in UK