Could the EU let no deal happen but give us the option to reverse?

[MyCatsHat]

I’ve been thinking about brexit as you do :o

I watch a lot of news and often read brexit threads etc., but I haven’t seen this mentioned as a possibility. Could the EU refuse to do a new deal, leading to a no deal brexit, but say to the UK “you have a year (or whatever) to see if you like it and if you have another vote and vote to remain, you can reverse it all, come back and pick up where you left off.”

That way the brexiters get what they want and if it is as bad as anticipated, the pressure to have another vote will be huge and brexit could be (ultimately, effectively) avoided - not without s lot of cost but at least the disaster could be rowed back from.

Is that a mad suggestion or impossible for any reason, or has it been suggested already?

Brexit has already cost the EU millions in preparations- for something they didn't want or vote for. I couldn't see them letting us back without us making big concessions. Imagine if France had left forcing us to spend millions of pounds of public money - we would be up in arms !

@MysteryTripAgain the "profit" to the UK of being a member of EU is access to 500m without any trade barriers or tariffs.

"profit" to the UK of being a member of EU is access to 500m without any trade barriers or tariffs

UK has a trade deficit (loss) with the EU of £64 billion and it widens every year even though UK is the third largest donor to the EU. The widening of the trade deficit is mostly attributable to the following three countries

BELGIUM 🇧🇪
GERMANY 🇩🇪
NETHERLANDS 🇳🇱

How is it profitable?

The UK may indeed have to commit to join the Eurozone but it would only be allowed to do so when it meets the criteria. Contrary to certain Brexiters' perceptions about the strength of the UK economy, the UK wouldn't currently meet the criteria

It could choose to lie massage its figures (like Greece did) in order to join, or, like Sweden, always make sure that it just misses the criteria so is therefore unable to join the €

I suspect the UK could continue to be exempt from Schengen as the sea border makes it a slightly different situation to the land borders in much of the rest of Europe

Possibly, but if the other islands like Greece and Malta are in the Schengen area then I'm not sure how a UK exemption might work.

To be in the EU a country has to abide by the ECHR.
Britain doesn't. So it can't.

There seems to be a misconception that when UK leaves the EU they will have no further dealings with the EU. That is not the intent of either the EU nor the UK

Not paying the bulk of the 39 billion will make a FTA difficult but of course trade will continue, just more expensive for consumers because of tariffs and lower £.

This idea that you can just hop in and out of the EU is crazy, so we rejoin under a pro eu govt and 5 years later a Con govt is elected and triggers art50 again.....

All 27 countries would need to approve and i think they'd want guarantees we won't leave again and those conditions will be unacceptable, we'll still have an anti eu press and plenty of voters willing to believe their guff.

imho any economic downturn won't be blamed on brexit but on world events, remainers and the EU so i do not believe we'll ever rejoin.

Not paying the bulk of the 39 billion will make a FTA difficult but of course trade will continue

I am not in favour of not paying the £39 billion even if there is a a legal loophole that makes it possible. Certainly would not help with future deals with EU and may even discourage Non EU countries.

Article 49 allows a country to rejoin, but yes it would be a crazy situation to leave, rejoin and leave again.

@MysteryTripAgain you have no understanding whatsoever of international trade. The notion that bilateral trade deficits are bad in and of themselves is overwhelmingly rejected by trade experts and economists. Seems you appear to know better?

I think it's possible with a change of government. The EU know we've got a bunch of mad(wo)men in charge. Put someone like Kier Starner in number 10 and things would look quite different. That said, I don't think they'd let us back into the EU proper on the same terms, but I suspect an agreement to be in the EEA/SM would be very quickly sorted out.

I don't think so because to truly experience life as 'out' of the EU we'd/ we are spending millions changing procedures and administration to accommodate more border checks and paper work, training people etc. As have other countries. If we were just able to rejoin as if nothing has happened we'd be wasting everyone's time and money and have to go through a load more beurocracy changing it all back, so I don't think they'd agree to it. I could be wrong tho 🤷🏼‍♀️

Problem with Article 49 is that we would not be allowed back in on the fantastic "cake and eat it" terms we have now. At least I don't think so.

I don't think so either bellini. Personally I think if we do leave, with or without a deal, a Norway-style solution will be the best we can get (which isn't exactly bad, but is the opposite of "taking back control")

I think they'd need to give it more than a year to know if it was a failure or not though. Most Leavers anticipate problems in the short term but hope that longer term it will prove positive. I voted leave, but am not opposed to going back in if it turns out to be a disaster. But there needs to be a decent attempt to make it work first.

Technically it's possible but so very complicated as it's changing the laws in so many countries, and twice.

So for example, as we faced no deal in March the eu ordered all 27 countries to maintain current systems so we could travel until year end 2019. They gave us nine months to sort our shit out to prevent everyone and everything being stuck at borders.

All laws in all countries then had to be amended, to allow us to be non eu and travel under eu rules but only some of them ie not customs, not tariffs etc. No one knew If it would work until it was tested, so companies were preparing to get stuck st borders and for massive queues just in case.

To then have to reverse it, would be mind boggling logistically for all countries concerned.

Is it possible, yes, but what a headache, travel and transportation is just one of many things they extended for us, for example there are laws about importing products and the registration of those. Currently they are being extended and mirrored for us now with simplified procedures being put in.

Much of this is going on in the back ground as preparation for no deal, the work streams and the cost is huge as well as the complexity. To change it back after twelve months would be massive, but not impossible.

I think they'd need to give it more than a year to know if it was a failure or not though

Me too. JRM has stated it could be 50 years before the full benefit of UK leaving the EU comes to fruition.

So we are prisoners of the EU forever?

So we are prisoners of the EU forever?

If UK is not careful, yes.

@walkingdeadfangirl yes I do believe we are!

Non-members do not get membership benefits

But they can gain access to EU markets. UK exports more to Non EU Countries than to he EU. UK has a trade surplus with Non EU Countries as opposed a trade deficit with EU.

That's why the UK wants more freedom to make its own deals with Non EU Countries. Not that that means UK never wants to deal with EU again, but on different terms. Same applies to the EU as they too want to trade with UK after Brexit.

UK exports more to Non EU Countries than to he EU. UK has a trade surplus with Non EU Countries as opposed a trade deficit with EU.

You mean an EU member state exports...

You really think all those countries are going to offer the same terms to a single island nation that it offers to the entire trading bloc of the EU?

You mean an EU member state exports...

No. 44% of UK exports go to EU. The remaining 56% goes outside of EU.

You really think all those countries are going to offer the same terms to a single island nation that it offers to the entire trading bloc of the EU?

Depends what is on offer. Not all EU members produce the same things and want the same things. If they did there would be no need to trade between themselves.

Trump of the USA is keen for EU to break up. This allows USA to pick and choose which countries to deal with as opposed to EU and their standards which protect EU single market.

The remaining 56% goes outside of EU.
Under the trade conditions negotiated by the EU. Those countries have a deal with the EU, not with the UK.