Please can someone tell me the upsides of Brexit

[CleopatrasMum]

Apparently Dominic Raab has said there are many upsides of Brexit. The article in the Guardian that I read this in gave no details of what Raab (presumably) went on to say those upsides were.

Please can someone explain them to me?

Link to article here for what it's worth:

Raab says Brexit will bring 'huge series of upsides' for UK trade

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/06/raab-says-brexit-will-bring-huge-series-of-upsides-for-uk-trade?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[larrygrylls]

Java,

The big danger is delays in (ludicrously convoluted) supply chains and inflation, coupled with a lack of confidence in GBP.

Some WTO tariffs, by the way, are over 10%. They are not all small numbers.

If we get significant inflation and falling currency, the traditional response would be higher interest rates. However with a significant recession, that would push us into depression.

The alternative would be to hope that the inflation was a one off spike (it should be as tariffs won’t continue to go up). However that will leave people who are income based considerably poorer.

If we do have a ‘no deal’ Brexit, the policy response will have to be very carefully managed. Personally I do believe that the cooler headed (and most influential) Europeans realise that this is not a zero sum game and punishing us will also be really painful for them (and possibly also cause EU break up via a continental recession and Italian Euro default).

I am not a Brexiteer, it is an unpleasant and unnecessary process. However, I also believe the Euro (and thus the EU, regardless of the ludicrous claims of some that they are not the same) is a doomed project. Maybe taking the pain upfront rather than a few years down the line will work out well for us.

[Iggly]

In 2016, Theresa May created the “Brexit” department.

David Davis was given the secretary of state post. He is a brexiteer.

Next came Dominic Raab. He was (is) a Brexiteer.

Next came Stephen Barclay who also voted Leave.

Theresa May was very clear in her wish to drive Brexit through.

Let’s not pretend that anything other than the realities and practicalities have made this difficult to achieve.

Why?

For a variety of reasons which, no doubt, history will explain.

But I suspect a key one will be because the Leave camp never had a coherent plan for victory.

[Iggly]

Do Leavers believe that their politicians are perfect? Never make mistakes?

Do they believe their politicians never lie?

If so, then I completely understand why they believe that no deal brexit will be fine n

[larrygrylls]

Son,

I take your point about ‘enough calories’ not being a successful Brexit.

I am glad you brought up the point of metric but think you are wrong to say that people don’t have a right to choose for themselves (and others) to be financially worse off. Clearly your metric of success is purely financial. Other people’s may be different.

David Goodhart’s book ‘The Road to Somewhere’ is a really interesting read and, to some extent, explains why we are here.

[Iggly]

Might I also suggest reading Adam Tooze’s book Crashed. That also explains a lot.

[airforsharon]

All essential medication and food will get through - government has confirmed trucks will be waived through.

As of yesterday, the Gov confirmed they expect 50% of trucks to get through in their usual time. That's expect. It's up from the 25% expectation of a few months ago, but it's not a guarantee and still leaves us minus 50% of our goods. Concerns re medication and livestock welfare have still not been fully addressed.

The fact you're in Australia is relevant as this will not affect you directly one jot. So just as you're free to pontificate from the comfort of your home several 1000 miles away, other posters are free to point that out, and disagree with you.

[Wiltshirelass2019]

The EU is an elitist club. It imposes high tariffs to non EU countries which I don’t think is fair, we should all be able to trade equally. If an African farmer wants to sell his beans to an EU country he’ll have a huge tariff to pay as opposed to a country selling within the EU. It’s really not great or fair for the developing world.

I voted remain because the city I live in has done pretty well out of the EU, I’d vote remain again because I think it’s all too much hassle and I’m sick of people moaning and talking about Brexit.

Having said all that over the years I’ve seen what bully’s the EU are, it’s a pretty corrupt organisation with lots of money wasted on this extra layer of government and bureaucracy that we really don’t need. We weren’t part of the EU as it is today until 1996 so I’m sure we’ll be fine without this unnecessary layer of government...

[Iggly]

I am glad you brought up the point of metric but think you are wrong to say that people don’t have a right to choose for themselves (and others) to be financially worse off

The people who make those choices are the ones who have the room to be able to do so.

But Brexit hasn’t meant that people have deliberately made the choice to be poorer.

Not everyone voted Brexit, remember.

So the government has a responsibility to meet the needs of all citizens. Even the ones it disagrees with.

[Java2019]

However, I also believe the Euro (and thus the EU, regardless of the ludicrous claims of some that they are not the same) is a doomed project

Me too. EU membership was expanded too quickly by the leading EU Countries; France, Germany and UK. They wanted access to cheaper labour in the hope they could stop the surge from China and India becoming the top Economies of the World. Did not work and you now have a situation that EU has 28 members. 10 pay in to the pot and 18 take out from the pot.

I don't see the gain for the 10 that pay in?

[Iggly]

It imposes high tariffs to non EU countries which I don’t think is fair, we should all be able to trade equally

That’s all well and good but how does that sit with food standards, safety standards etc?

I expect to have lower tariffs for places with decent standards.

[Java2019]

So the government has a responsibility to meet the needs of all citizens. Even the ones it disagrees with

Pleasing everyone is not possible in my view. However, if you know it can be achieved you are entitled to the World's highest award as you will have solved the World's problems overnight.

[Wiltshirelass2019]

Iggly you can impose high standards and restrictions on food safety without high tariffs

[Java2019]

It imposes high tariffs to non EU countries

This is one of the key leave arguments. High tariffs on Non EU goods denies the UK access to cheaper alternatives.

[larrygrylls]

Son,

V few will be wealthier via leaving; I am not sure what point you are making there. The 17 mio who voted leave were not all hedgies in Mayfair plotting their trading strategies.

As for health and happiness, the leavers will clearly be happy when we leave. I think freedom of movement was a big thing for some of them.

If you disagree with someone, clearly you won’t be grateful to them. There are many vicissitudes in all our lives that are foisted upon us by government. However, ultimately we have to deal with them, organise against them (hard to do for many) or find somewhere else to live whose philosophy jibes more with one’s own.

I fear identity politics far more than Brexit. Leavers and Remainers both make some good points. Global future is uncertain and we do need to learn to not judge people entirely on one viewpoint. The media has been really unhelpful here.

[bellinisurge]

So why did you assume I'm predicting a zombie apocalypse? @larrygrylls

[larrygrylls]

Java,

The gain for the payers is a weak(er) currency. Economists have estimated the gains made by Germany due to having the Euro and not the DM and it is a HUGE number.

The only way to square the circle is Germany donating trillions to the weaker nations to help the EU become more homogeneous. Will this happen? I really doubt it.

Successful currency unions have a common culture, language and tax system. The Eurozone fails on all three counts.

[LatteLove]

Remainers have created " no deal".

And the leavers who have voted against a deal too surely

[larrygrylls]

Bellini,

Never mentioned zombie once. The fact that you want to be ‘nowhere near a supermarket’ kind of implies you expect them not to be safe. Or was it just that a supermarket without the right type of Camembert at the right price is just too depressing?!

[LatteLove]

Or not so thinly veiled, @CherryPavlova. Horrible.

[Lepetitpiggy]

Sadly, I think my job will be very safe - I work with the homeless.

[Java2019]

Successful currency unions have a common culture, language and tax system

Like the USA

The Eurozone fails on all three counts

Correct. Even UK as third largest donor does not use the Euro. Most Eastern European Countries continue to use their native currency. So where is the harmonization?

[larrygrylls]

Bellini,

Can you rephrase your last post in English, please, ideally without the personal attacks? I genuinely have no idea what you mean by ‘bumpiness’.