Please can someone tell me the upsides of Brexit

[CleopatrasMum]

Apparently Dominic Raab has said there are many upsides of Brexit. The article in the Guardian that I read this in gave no details of what Raab (presumably) went on to say those upsides were.

Please can someone explain them to me?

Link to article here for what it's worth:

Raab says Brexit will bring 'huge series of upsides' for UK trade

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/06/raab-says-brexit-will-bring-huge-series-of-upsides-for-uk-trade?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[Frankiestein402]

Correct, but demonstrating bad faith is difficult.
And that's why there is an arbitration mechanism - go read it

[NosyBe2006]

And that's why there is an arbitration mechanism - go read it

Have. Arbitration can take years too. A case between the EU and UK could go on many years and no certainty that the Arbitration would rule in favour of the UK in which case back to square one.

Have you read the legal advice provided by Cox? Clear to me that it was EU biased. Also clear why T May wanted to hide it. UK being locked into the EU forever! What sort of sell out deal was that?

[Ellie56]

So...22 pages and still no upsides?

[NosyBe2006]

@Ellke56

Upside is that the result of the 2016 referendum to leave the EU happens. Downside is that UK departure from the EU looks like to be on a no deal as opposed to a deal basis.

[TheElementsSong]

🐝

[Frankiestein402]

Have you read the legal advice provided by Cox? Clear to me that it was EU biased. Also clear why T May wanted to hide it. UK being locked into the EU forever! What sort of sell out deal was that?

I have. The only way the UK would be "locked into" the EU would be if it was being unreasonable by eg demanding concessions that would harm the EU - because we want to blow one of our legs off does not mean the EU needs to do the same.

WE are supplicants, WE want a trade deal with the EU. The details of that will only emerge post withdrawal. If WE withdraw without an agreement WE are ignoring the democratic wishes of 30 million voters and We will still have to meet the EU preconditions before we can start to talk about a deal.

Yes the EU wants a trade deal to be negotiated after withdrawal, but the hit to the EU of no trade deal is a fraction of the hit to the UK.

Just to rub it in, the US (the EU's biggest trading partner) is now the only significant country left of those that we were going to go out and create our brave new world. The EU has firmed up deals with the rest of our proposed partners except India and we now don't want to deal with India. (visas)

Exiting without a WA is masochistic posturing.

[NosyBe2006]

°The only way the UK would be "locked into" the EU would be if it was being unreasonable by eg demanding concessions that would harm the EU°

As UK is the third largest donor to EU any form of UK leaving the EU would harm the EU.

If WE withdraw without an agreement WE are ignoring the democratic wishes of 30 million voters

Where does that come from? That makes the assumption that of the 17.4 million who voted leave at least 13.9 million are against no deal. Any reliable poll to demonstrate that?

Just to rub it in, the US (the EU's biggest trading partner) is now the only significant country left of those that we were going to go out and create our brave new world

UK already trades with USA.

[Peregrina]

Where does that come from?

The 2017 Manifestos of the Conservatives and Labour. You know the 80% who apparently voted For Brexit, but did not vote for No Deal:

"We will end Theresa May’s reckless approach to Brexit, and seek to unite the country around a Brexit deal that works for every community in Britain." Labour party.

"So now more than ever, Britain needs a strong and stable government to get the best Brexit deal for our country and its people."
Tory Party.

Both these are their headline commitments. I don't see the words NO DEAL there, or even more Crash Out with No Deal. I see "a deal" and "the best Brexit deal."

[Frankiestein402]

Where does that come from?

The 2017 Conservative manifesto promised:
"The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit."

The 2017 labour manifesto promised:
"We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option and, if needs be, negotiate transitional arrangements to avoid a ‘cliff-edge’ for the UK economy."

Con,lab, snp, green, plaid votes in 2017 = 30,389,696 votes, ca 94% of votes cast, more than 62% of electorate.

[NosyBe2006]

To Perigrini and Frankenstein

Did both conservatives and labour say during the 2017 manifesto that no deal would be taken off the table?

[Frankiestein402]

UK already trades with USA
The USA, India, Japan were at the top of the list of countries that we would be able to do great deals with once outside the EU.

As UK is the third largest donor to EU any form of UK leaving the EU would harm the EU.
EU members contribute ~1% of gdp - our rebate means we contribute 0.7% of our gdp which amounts to less than 10% of EU budget.

EU plan a 5yr budget on that basis. All that happens if we are not there is that the EU plans to do less in its next 5 years. At the end of which current EU gdp growth of 2% pa more than compensates for our departure. Harm yes, significant harm - not even close.

[Frankiestein402]

Did both conservatives and labour say during the 2017 manifesto that no deal would be taken off the table?

Read the text, their manifestos made it clear that no deal was not a consideration - so why would they need to state it "wasn't on the table" ?

[bellinisurge]

@NosyBe2006 - you don't live in the EU. All this is purely academic for you. Why do you give a shit. Other than shit stirring?

[Basilpots]

Neither party ran on an exclusive no deal platform.

Labour ruled it out.

[BertrandRussell]

Love the totally baffled look here....here

[Peregrina]

NoseyBe2006 - stop being a lazy arse and google their manifestos yourself. You might just find that yes, they said. 'If we don't get a deal, then sod it yes, we will crash out, and yah boo sucks to you idiots who voted for us.'

[HateIsNotGood]

jasjas1973 - haven't read the thread between your link request and now. I spent about 30 mins earlier today searching for a link and all info was all Brexit-related. And what I referred to (the EU noticing that the CTA advantaged RoI and UK nationals over other EU Nationals) occured before any Ref announcements. Although, less than a year before.

I know it's 'real' and not just my 'affected memory' as I did find the links again (1-2 years ago) just to make sure my memory was correct. It wasn't a widely-publicized thing at the time, and I stumbled across it looking into something else for an elderly Irish friend; and also remember confirming it from an EU sourced link as I never assume that something that I read in an 'article' is anything more than opinion.

I'll have another search soon, with different, refined and advanced search parameters. Just popping in to say, I'm on the case, but paid employment and domestic responsibilities are the priorities (as indeed they are for most of us) but I do want to evidence my assertion.

Not running away....just need to go.

[jasjas1973]

HateIsNotGood

Thanks for looking.

But it does support what i said earlier, many EU "proposals" are just that.... things that get thought about and then get kicked into the long grass... Think Policy forums or Concept Houses! nothing rarely ever comes from them.

[HateIsNotGood]

jas, thanks for acknowledgement and do agree with you about 'thought about' and 'long grass', from every perspective. I also do think, that from an EU perspective, pre-UK Ref, that they had a point - how can the EU reconcile the equality between all EU Nationals when the CTA favours some Nationals over others?

Now that question is in the short grass, or moreso in the mud of a rugby scrum, but now very much not a game, and scoring 'points' against the opposition isn't the best way forward.

At least in my earlier searching I read a lot of Bertie Ahearn's views and, in my short, abridged readings, I agreed with a lot of them.

Just popping in (again!) having done some domresps and now back to the paidemps (with a bit of ranting in the kitchen in between).

[frumpety]

Cost of; food clothing and footwear is forecast to reduce significantly under a no deal brexit as access to cheaper alternatives is possible as EU regulations which protect high prices are side stepped.

Its almost as though Primark and Jack fultons don't exist, where did you say you live again Nosy ?

[frumpety]

Got to throw Sports Direct and Amazon into the mix as well, every single person in the UK can access cheap alternatives should they wish to do so. Seriously, how much cheaper do you expect stuff to get ? Or haven't you been shopping here recently ?

[frumpety]

T-shirt in Primark for DS £1.80, that's not a reduced price, that's the full price.

[frumpety]

And Home Bargains and Poundland

[Clavinova]

The EU has firmed up deals with the rest of our proposed partners except India and we now don't want to deal with India.(visas)

Boris Johnson wants a trade deal with India (his estranged wife is half Indian - her mother is Indian);

"July 2019 "Boris Johnson, the new British Prime Minister, is expected to rely on his declared personal connect with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to deliver a “truly special” UK-India relationship and strike a “new and improved” trading relationship."

"He pledged not only closer trade ties but also easier access for Indian professionals and students."

"the senior Tory MP branded it a “travesty” that the 28-member economic bloc had failed to treat free trade agreement (FTA) talks with India as a priority for over a decade."

"India is an economic powerhouse and set to become the third largest economy by the middle of the century, with annual economic growth far outpacing the EU." ... "Securing this new and improved trading relationship with our friends in India will be a priority for me.”

"He also plugged his proposals for a so-called “Australian-style points-based system” of immigration, which would ensure friends, family members and business contacts in India do not face undue discrimination or barriers when seeking to work, travel or study in the UK."

“India is a massive static market for the UK, but I would also like to see India opening up to more of our great brands.In India Sainsbury’s can’t set up, they have no Waitrose in India."^

"He has in the past also made several interventions over the high duties imposed by India on Scotch whisky."

www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/uks-new-pm-boris-johnson-to-use-personal-modi-connect-for-new-and-improved-uk-india-ties/article28687783.ece

[Clavinova]

BBC General election 2017: Where UK's parties stand on Brexit

Brexit is a major issue at the UK general election - here's what we know about where the main parties across the UK stand.

The Conservatives

"In short: Prime Minister Theresa May was against Brexit before the EU referendum but now says there can be no turning back and that "Brexit means Brexit".^

"How the party sees Brexit: The Conservatives' priorities were set out in a 12 point plan published in January and the letter formally invoking Brexit in March."

"Key elements include"
◾No longer being bound by EU law and European Court of Justice rulings
◾Quitting the EU single market and seeking a "comprehensive" free trade deal in its place
◾Striking trade deals with other countries around the world
◾A "great repeal bill" to convert existing EU law into UK legislation to be retained or scrapped
Being prepared to walk away from talks: "No deal is better than a bad deal."
◾Aiming for an "early agreement" to resolve the status of expats in the UK and EU
◾Leaving the EU customs union and seeking a new customs agreement
◾An as-yet unspecified immigration system to replace the free movement of EU citizens, aiming to bring total net migration below 100,000
◾Keeping all employment rights currently guaranteed by EU law
◾Promising the "voices and interests" of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be heard

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39665835