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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

OP posts:
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LonelyTiredandLow · 08/08/2019 09:52

See, I saw Cumming's latest press release as a challenge. We've been saying how they will try to force a GE; he's worried time is running out so is having to poke Hammond et al into action. It's all part of his plan.

I understand the desire to rebel against austerity and break systems that don't work. The trouble is it's the ones that did which have been broken. We need to rebuild before we break everything.

RedToothBrush · 08/08/2019 09:56

Each household gets one vote - which obviously only the man can cast - double checked at polling time with special pencils that can only be held with a penis.

Can't we just have the penis tax?

(joke)

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 08/08/2019 09:59

The 'UK' vote is premised on passport colour/origin

And as we saw earlier in the year, quite a few people were more than happy to start talking about how far back citizenship goes. With the suggestion that it could be removed from the "ISIS Bride" on the basis it only went back to her parents.

On the basis of that, I'm on the next train out of the UK - what with my only one English parent.

Emilyontmoor · 08/08/2019 10:00

Nobel Prize winner Sir Paul Nurse on Today this morning No deal will be “Chaos, a failure of statecraft bought on by an ideology that does not comprehend the modern world” at 2.50.00 here www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0007bvr

Dandeliontea123 · 08/08/2019 10:02

David Cameron’s government took a lot of low paid workers out of the lower income tax bracket so that they no longer pay it.

Some of these people work full time for the emergency services, for example. But now there is a suggestion that they shouldn’t be allowed to vote? Unbelievable.

And of course similar arguments can absolutely be made (and have already been made on this thread) for others who don’t pay income tax for whatever reason.

woman19 · 08/08/2019 10:03

The other issue with the 57% taxpayer rate, is that it's part of the toxic mutual relationship between low wage paying employers and decimated public services

By raising the rate at which tax is paid, employers have been able to keep wages low as take home has been raised.

The family tax credit, ended up as a 'get out of jail free' card which has normalised this. It was another poorly thought through policy.

Low tax takings have decimated public services.

Decimated public services lead to the brexit.

Low tax takings are obviously on the back of the remaining folks who do pay the taxes and the public service workers working at a personal and financial loss to continue providing the services.

As those who are still living in mainland EU countries will testify, income and local taxation is not an 'afterthought' it's an integral component of a civilised and civilising mutually responsible culture.

There's certainly a 'vagina' tax in the 'uk' red. We pay it in lost income, inequitable student loan system, decimated pensions, lack of legal rights, lack of access to housing ( good thread in the feminist section on this atm) etc etc.

I don't know if I would have kept mine if it had been costed out. Wink

prettybird · 08/08/2019 11:07

Must. Learn. To. Sit. On. My. Hands. Wink

The Brexiters are definitely getting rattled, given the increasing number of even more batshit posters.

I'm sure part of it, as Woman or Misti reminded us yesterday, is part of a Cummings' type plan to distract us from the real issues and danger, by arguing about the minutiae.

The latest one I've seen is arguing that Carney has a vested interest to be a Remainer and talk the UK down because he has an Irish passport Hmm and that Pelosi has a vested personal interest to block a US-UK FTA that damages the GFA because she is of Italian descent Confused

There, got it off my chest Grin

DGRossetti · 08/08/2019 11:16

The latest one I've seen is arguing that Carney has a vested interest to be a Remainer and talk the UK down because he has an Irish passport hmm and that Pelosi has a vested personal interest to block a US-UK FTA that damages the GFA because she is of Italian descent

I suspect a connection to international zionism is being invented as we speak ...

DGRossetti · 08/08/2019 11:21

As always, Viz nail it Grin

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
probstimeforanewname · 08/08/2019 11:26

It's this rewriting of history which annoys me the most. The leave campaign promised there would be a deal before leaving. That is fact. Nobody voted for no deal as it was not an option

Yes. I wonder if ANYONE, anywhere has said this to Johnson.

probstimeforanewname · 08/08/2019 11:27

Adam Fleming said something in yesterday's soundbites about how for Brussels the 2nd best option (after WA) for protecting EU single market & status quo, is UK Crashing Out

Are there any other options? Other than staying in, obviously.

Even if we agree to stay in the CU and SM (my favoured option by some way) we still need to sign the WA.

DGRossetti · 08/08/2019 11:27

.

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
MotherOfSoupDragons · 08/08/2019 11:32

If they said that to him, he'd put his fingers in his ears and sing la la la.

Peregrina · 08/08/2019 11:47

I am sickened by the rewriting of history - the future will be bumpy, we are better off than many countries with our access to medicine etc.

Did they really see Vote Leave for a Third World Health Service on the side of a bus? And thought, right, that sounds good? No, a) not snappy enough and b) it was all about improving the NHS.

I get sick of the we survived the War brigade because no one born after 1927 was old enough to have fought in the War and I am pretty sure that MN isn't populated by a whole crowd of nonagenarians. But even if "we" did survive the war - tell that to people who had friends and relatives killed either fighting or in bombing raids, or tell that to the people who lost everything when they were bombed out. Tell that to the six million Jews slaughtered - or because that wasn't in the UK maybe they don't count?

Why are the Leavers not calling out Johnson and his unelected advisor? Where is the democracy in that? Why do they think a Referendum trumps regular General Elections? If there was another one, on any old subject, that didn't go the way they wanted, would they whinge about it? Clue - Farage and unfinished business.

DGRossetti · 08/08/2019 11:56

I am sickened by the rewriting of history - the future will be bumpy, we are better off than many countries with our access to medicine etc.

Only possible because collectively, our media organisations - that we are supposed to trust for news - have simply joined the choir rather than holding politicians to power.

If you can't trust the press then it's time to "praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition" (smiles). Our Brexiteer folks seem to cream their pants (did I say they're all men) over all things American, so I'm sure they'd agree with me on that one.

Horehound · 08/08/2019 12:51

Pmk

TheMShip · 08/08/2019 12:57

A concise summary of the options available to parliament to stop a no deal Brexit: publiclawforeveryone.com/2019/08/08/can-parliament-prevent-a-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

QueenOfThorns · 08/08/2019 13:13

Thank you TheMShip, that was very interesting!

So we have two avenues of escape - a VONC followed by a Government of National Unity (my autocorrect wanted that to say ‘Unicorn’, which seems about right), or legislation to revoke Article 50. It would be wonderful, but I just don’t think that the Remain parties/MPs are capable of playing nicely together, even in these circumstances Sad

MaxNormal · 08/08/2019 14:01

On the basis of that, I'm on the next train out of the UK - what with my only one English parent.

I've only been naturalised 14 years.
Right after the vote, someone on a thread told me that I and others like me should be rounded up and put in interment camps.

DarlingNikita · 08/08/2019 14:03

PMK. Thanks Red.

In hindsight, that TV film with Benedict C as Dominic Cummings was WAY too soft in the way it portrayed him.

prettybird · 08/08/2019 14:03

TiP is currently in her birth country, "enjoying" visiting Trump Tower Wink and also experiencing flooding from thunderstorms, so not really missing anything over here Wink.

I'm sure she must be splitting her sides at the idea that the UK is "ready" for No Deal and that the Port of Dover is prepared for 31st October - especially when it's reported that many companies haven't even applied for the necessary certification and that the paperwork that needs to be processed will increase manifold. Apparently, the assessmet now is that "only" 50% of lorries will be delayed, thanks to the preparation the French have made Hmm.

Knowing what paperwork is required might fulfil the category of being prepared in one definition: actually coping with the the gridlocked roads is a different kettle of fish Hmm

Janista · 08/08/2019 14:35

Parliament chose for there to be no deal.

Every single one of the 400 MPs who rejected the deal needs to look in the mirror and say "I did this". I'm sure the ERG will do that with a smile.

Grieve, Cooper and everyone else in that 400 should stop casting aspersions at others and be self aware enough to realise what they have done when they walked into the lobby with the ERG.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/08/2019 14:43

Competent planning (!) might enable the UK to receive almost all the imports it needs

However, that planning would involve the UK govt preventing a lot of UK exports from travelling to Dover

e.g. blanket ban on a lot of food, unless the UK remains temporarily on the EU food databases as part of EU unilateral prepping:
the UK may not be allowed to export any meat or dairy, or food products containing them

Then there is the pallet issue (pallets required for some types of UK exports) which afaik has not yet been resolved, but again the EU might temporarily allow the pallets for as long as it suits them

Hence why I think No Deal - barring cockups (which we can't totally exclude) - will be a slow burner,
then ^after 6 months or so,cumulative effects on UK exports / balance of payments and businesses becoming very noticeable
when bankruptcies, unemployment etc would really bite

Also worsening after 9-12 months, when the EU stops many of its interim arrangements,^ once its businesses etc no longer need them

Reports are that Sterling is expected to drop another 12% on No Deal,
but this could rise to 25% later on if we are in limbo at 6 months+ because of still refusing to accept the EU preconditions for trade negotiations

yolofish · 08/08/2019 14:58

I think you're right BCF. Come Nov 1 all the Leavers will be saying, look! we're still here, it's all fine, the sunlit uplands are ready for us.

Christmas and the run-up (which starts in October anyway) will be when the holes start to show up, certainly for 'ordinary' people. Those with medical conditions will probably notice much earlier than that.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 08/08/2019 15:08

Meanwhile, over on the Project Fear thread (waves at Mistigri, Bellini and JaJas) we’re going to be just fine because Japan managed to recover from a devastating Tsunami Confused