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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 12:09

I think there won't be any movement from the EU until the UK delegation can turn up with something inked and dry to show that they aren't wasting anyones time. and before anyone asks what that might be, I'd gamble their answer would be the same as mine "That's up to you ..."

There's scope for someone to distil the UK-EU situation into a parallel thread on "Relationships" and see what advice each party gets from the wiser heads on MN Grin.

But that would be too much like hard work, and interfere with my research into medicines post no-deal.

DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 12:09

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Westminstenders: Promises, promises
Peregrina · 07/08/2019 12:16

howabout I know that the pension reforms for doctors are to stop a disincentive to do extra hours, from talking to people first hand. It doesn't alter how people feel the NHS has been treated under the Tories, Hunt especially.

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 12:57

The unelected Cummings is rattled.

yolofish · 07/08/2019 13:06

Well it's all going to be ok, Damian Collins, the red-trousered fucking fatfaced wanker has said so:

"Thank you for your email.

I support implementing the result of the referendum, and I support leaving the EU with a deal. What Theresa May negotiated was put to the House of Commons three times, and three times it was rejected. The main point of contention was the undemocratic backstop, which would provide the EU a means by which it could continue to control the UK's trade and laws forever. So if we are to have a deal with the EU, it must be something better than what Theresa May and the EU were able to produce, and the backstop must go.

It is up to the EU whether they wish to negotiate something that is acceptable to the House of Commons, but the UK is leaving on 31 October, and the Government is making extensive preparations to do so whatever the circumstances.

Thank you once again for taking the time to write.

Kind regards,

Damian Collins MP"

RedToothBrush · 07/08/2019 13:06

So a deal must follow a GE rather than preceding it. That means that he has to find a way of making it look like he is dead set on no deal, so that when parliament blocks it, he can blame them for the resulting extension.

It's a possible extension but I'm hesitant on it. It falls down in several areas.

It's about timing.

If he has a GE too early - pre 31st Oct - the vote is split between the Brexit Party and the Cons. There is thought to be a sweet spot where Johnson has delivered no deal but before we hit full on chaos to get a Tory majority to do the deal they want.

He has to have a full on problem with no deal post GE to get support for binning our close relationship with the EU to get a US deal. Otherwise he has to make concessions and compromise with the EU. This won't sit with either his image nor his party membership and Brexit party.

To get a deal he still has to get it through parliament. He won't have the numbers with the ERG, even with an increased majority if he compromises. That means post no deal he'd have to rely on opposition support for a deal. In chaotic Brexit, they might but I think the tribalism will still run too deep and boy will it be bitter.

Alternatively he has to get at least 10 more Tory MPs to get him off the hook with the DUP to make NI a special case, plus he has to purge the party of 'soft Tory' MPs which a GE gives the opportunity to deselect those who do not obey. He then goes full on hard Brexit with England, Wales and Scotland with a huge US deal.

The Tory Party membership largely want libertarian trade arrangements rather than EU protectionism, regulation and labour laws. So I suspect this is the way it will go, especially when you consider the cabinet appointments he's made.

They need a chaotic Brexit plus a blame narrative on the EU punishing us, to refuse to deal. The US comes in as a saviour with their trade deal with public support, but Johnson can also sort out the Irish situation with a really shitty settlement without the backstop by keeping NI in the customs union but not the rest of the country and come out looking like a winner.

The game isnt about no deal, as if he is playing this game a shitty no deal works for him not against him. The game is about the deal after no deal.

I'm not sure I've seen anyone really give thought to this or address this issue yet. For Johnson there is a clear path of what the Tory Party are aiming for though and how they might get to that - and actually I think there is a high risk strategy of how to get there.

Less so for the opposition who are a mix of continuity remain, referendum supporters and leave with BRINO and definitely no plan on either how to get there nor how to sell that approach to the wider public.

A chaotic no deal has the effect of putting sane people who want a soft deal, referendum or remain in a position where if it is that bad many will crack and think 'just sort this shit show out, I don't care how' on the short term with no thought to the long term. A deal with the US to break out of the siege of Europe and 'their oppression of our freedom' then looks rather more attractive than it does now even though the reality of it is a shit show.

It's all about how you can create a situation where a turd looks golden and shiny. No Deal provides it.

But he needs a GE as close to 31st Oct as he can get it, he wins that, then has a really shitty chaotic and even uncivil no deal to pull the whole thing off.

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NoWordForFluffy · 07/08/2019 13:11

@Songsofexperience: I agree. Despair is a well known weapon. Cummings wants us to believe all is already lost. It bloody isn't until it actually is.

That's the attitude that I've tried to take when I've referred to serious doom and gloom on here. I prefer to view it your way (whilst preparing for and not ignoring the opposite, in the same way that I buy insurance) as it keeps me more sane!

TheElementsSong · 07/08/2019 13:19

twitter.com/seatsixtyone/status/1159029657347534848

BRITAIN TO PULL OUT OF INTERRAIL/EURAIL SCHEME. Now it is indeed official, I have the press release. Interrail/Eurail passes will no longer cover (not so) Great Britain from 1 Jan 2020, although Eurostar will still be covered.

RedToothBrush · 07/08/2019 13:24

NoWordForFluffy, is the positivity a survival strategy to keep hope alive and not want to think about the possibility or is it based on being able to see a realistic and viable route to prevent no deal?

The question is a hard one, but one I think needs to be asked.

Is it a question of belief or a question of practicality?

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woman19 · 07/08/2019 13:29

The Jews who did survive the last batch of Nazis did not do so through optimism.

Icantreachthepretzels · 07/08/2019 13:31

BRITAIN TO PULL OUT OF INTERRAIL/EURAIL SCHEME.

Well that's a bit of good news! I remember so clearly all those leavers back in 2016 talking about how much hey wanted to leave interrail/EUrail - how it had to go. Obviously it wasn't as high on their priorities as leaving Euratom, europol or getting rid of the EMA from our shores - but it was definitely in the mix. Pulling out of interrail/EUrail was definitely what they were voting for. Now they are getting it - finally! Huzzah for brexit - a victory hard won.

NoWordForFluffy · 07/08/2019 13:39

NoWordForFluffy, is the positivity a survival strategy to keep hope alive and not want to think about the possibility or is it based on being able to see a realistic and viable route to prevent no deal?

It's a mental health survival plan for me (though clearly I AM thinking that it's possible as I'm also planning for it to happen as it would be daft not to, that isn't mutually exclusive from hoping against hope that it doesn't though, which you appear to suggest).

Both sides are too entrenched now, I think. And both leavers and remainers are at fault. The leavers for not voting to leave because it wasn't a hard enough exit and the remainers for not being pragmatic and at least avoiding no deal by accepting that we were leaving and voting for the WA.

I think no deal is most likely now. But I'll keep hoping for a miracle!

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 13:40

Do they give a reason for pulling out interrail/eurail, or is it just because of the name?

DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 13:44

Do they give a reason for pulling out interrail/eurail, or is it just because of the name?

One less cheap escape route. Less proles on sol ? Part of the narrative that must accompany Brexit is (as a security guard told me friend who wanted to go into a store on 5th Avenue, NYC) There's nothing for you in here, sir ....

NoWordForFluffy · 07/08/2019 13:46

The Jews who did survive the last batch of Nazis did not do so through optimism.

You can hope things don't turn out as shit as they could potentially do, whilst also being practical and getting on with stuff.

I'm as bloody practical a person as you could ever meet. And a planner. I'm also pragmatic. But I still prefer to hope that things aren't shit, even if I'm capable and willing to plan for the worst case scenario.

Why are hope / optimism mutually exclusive from practicality and pragmatism to some people? Because they aren't!

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 13:46

So would we have to go to say Calais and buy our interrail ticket there?

TheElementsSong · 07/08/2019 13:47

Do they give a reason for pulling out interrail/eurail, or is it just because of the name?

Not sure, maybe cost-cutting? It's sort of discussed on that Twitter thread but it wasn't clear to me what the specific reasoning was - I don't think it's specifically due to Brexit, apart from perhaps being an opportune time to do it whilst the British public are in the right (isolationist) frame of mind.

LouiseCollins28 · 07/08/2019 13:51

Remember what I wrote about the difficulty of disentangling "Stop No Deal" from "Stop Brexit?" Well, on this evidence, it seems the cat is now out of the bag on that one..

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/07/stop-catastrophe-no-deal-brexit-revoke-article-50

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 13:52

Or is this a way of our train companies looking for ways to increase their profits?

Where is Clavinova or Janista to tell us that this has absolutely nothing to do with Brexit- funny that about the timing - we went into the scheme in 1973!

DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 13:55

Where is Clavinova or Janista

If there were a way to block users on MN (some forums allow it) then the latter would be in my killfile. I'm pleased some Westminstenders regulars call them out on other threads for cheering on from Australia ....

RedToothBrush · 07/08/2019 13:56

Fluffy, I get the mental health stuff but there is an absence of a viable route stop to no deal at this point. I hope one can be found, but at this point we are hoping on desparate last ditch long shot attempts rather than a well thought out strategy.

And that's my real problem.

Those last ditch actions are being hyped up into being thought of a viable notion, out of desperation, rather than being realistic about their chances of success.

That also has the effect of stopping other strategies from being thought of or taken seriously especially if they are damage limitation strategies rather than outright 'stop no deal' ones.

Hope is a powerful thing but it needs to be managed and measured, otherwise it can lead to things like the leave vote itself by being misleading.

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DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 14:00

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Westminstenders: Promises, promises
woman19 · 07/08/2019 14:01

Those last ditch actions are being hyped up into being thought of a viable notion, out of desperation, rather than being realistic about their chances of success

That also has the effect of stopping other strategies from being thought of or taken seriously especially if they are damage limitation strategies rather than outright 'stop no deal' ones

I agree.

Mad damage limitation idea ( I know BCF you and red have argued for years that the WA should have been passed):

Someone somewhere suggested that May as a back bencher, with her Gaukeward possie, tries to return her WA and it's voted through, pronto.

NoWordForFluffy · 07/08/2019 14:02

I know that. And I've acknowledged it.

But I'm not the one with any power to influence the people who can do something about this. I'm pretty sure that if I did have that responsibility, that I'd be trying my hardest to solve the problem. Like I do at work on a daily basis.

They're all too entrenched. And they're not pragmatic enough to realise. So many remainers would have accepted (reluctantly) a soft Brexit, but we've lost that chance now. Because pragmatism is MIA amongst the MPs.

TheElementsSong · 07/08/2019 14:02

Remember what I wrote about the difficulty of disentangling "Stop No Deal" from "Stop Brexit?"

It's not contradictory, you know. People have an order of preference. It's possible to prefer No Brexit to Soft Brexit, and to prefer Soft Brexit to No Deal Brexit. And if it genuinely turns out, given all recent super-omnishambolic omnishambles, that it's too late to stop No Deal Brexit, perhaps that genuinely does leave Revoke as the only was to prevent No Deal.