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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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howabout · 07/08/2019 11:19

BCF Sad Have you actually looked at where the Brexit Party won in the EU elections?

Leavers on twitter are having a laugh debating whether #FBPE trumps PhD. Grin Calling people stupid / deluded / misinformed is not persuasive.

tobee · 07/08/2019 11:23

Ah! But Peregrina, that's making the assumption that Johnson voted for Leave!! Smile

howabout · 07/08/2019 11:24

Daniel Hannan is neither stupid nor ill-informed.

"If you are simultaneously arguing 1) That the EU is a great force for free trade and 2) That we can’t possibly leave because we’d face EU tariffs and trade barriers, may I gently suggest that you probably started with your conclusion."

Songsofexperience · 07/08/2019 11:26

Depends on your definition of free trade!
Hannan's view of free trade is some deregulated chaos. The EU doesn't stand for that.

RedToothBrush · 07/08/2019 11:31

Um, if the baddies are going to use psyops again in a GE, can’t the goodies do the same? A ‘fight fire with fire’ approach? Isn’t there anyone rich enough on the Remain side to fund it? Although I’m not sure about the morality of this, doesn’t the end justify the means? I mean, if I was tied to someone who was trying to throw us both over a cliff, I’m sure I’d do pretty much anything to stop them!

Well, if we were going to do that, we should have started that in... erm... June 2016.

Instead we the narrative was set by the victors and the 'good guys' were left flapping cos they hadn't got a fucking clue what had happened. And frankly I'm of the opinion they are STILL standing around flapping going 'errr erm.. what happened?' and having absoluetely no idea what to do and instead started to argue amongst themselves.

Honestly they had no idea how to sell the EU before, so why would they now? They only know how to reach people of their own mindset and are so entrenched and have encouraged that entrenchment at times (FBPE crew on twitter have at times been terrible at that and are totally lacking in self awareness).

We have got locked into a cycle of confrontation - which no one has sought to break and instead has been dancing to the tune of what the ERG says rather than setting their own agenda.

The whole 'fighting fire with fire' thing doesn't work. Thats why we are stuck in this flipping culture war in the first place. We've got this whole 'liberal identity' versus this 'authoritarian control' you are either with us or against us dynamic (which was largely how the 2017 GE went). That has somewhat fragmented since 2017 as Corbyn hasn't turned out to have been quite what one side thought he was... Part of the problem is that the 'liberal identity' side is having something of an identity crisis and doesn't know what the heck its really standing for nor understand what is motivating the authoritarians. (Hey look at the Democrats in the US - same issue).

Strangely enough it was the left fragmenting that was one of the biggest factors in Hitler's rise to power.

Ultimately the biggest issue of the 'liberal identity' crowd is precisely because they have forgotten what the hell liberalism is... they are running around going 'this is bad, you must believe this instead' in black and white thinking as it makes nice memes and tweets; which is basically authoritarism is. This means that it alienates 'the other side' rather than offering it something to all. Liberalism is shades of grey and compromise. If you look at the LDs, Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid there is no desire to compromise with each other or with anyone else. They are all so terrified of a repeat of 2010 and the subsequent LD wipe out that they don't want to be seen to be 'selling out' by compromising, even if thats the best thing for the country.

Thats the problem in a sense. Our two party system favours black and white thinking, which in turn favours authoritarianism. If you look back historically at UK politics, its traditionally been more authoritarianian than we have given credance to. We've built up something of a lie that we've been a cradle of liberalism. Liberalism has only really flourished for a very short number of years.

Anyway, I'm rambling, but its out of frustration and anger at people who profess to be liberal who have no fucking clue of what it means, its history, its roots, its core features and what makes it special. Its just a bunch of twats trying to look after their own arses, every bit as much as on the government side of the house. No one is prepared to show the bravery that liberalism needs to flourish. The selflessness and sacrifice that it requires.

They have fallen into every single trap thats been set by the authoritarian right and they have no answer to it but for more identity politics which part of the fucking problem in the first place.

You don't want to fight fire with fire. You want to offer a bloody alternative.

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DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 11:31

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Westminstenders: Promises, promises
Mistigri · 07/08/2019 11:33

I found yesterday's despair rather depressing. We are not at the end of the road yet. And:

" Dominic Cummings' rinse-and-repeat plan is to tell obvious small fibs that get his political opponents caught up in procedural/technical debates rather than staying focused on the message. Do. Not. Fall. For. It." @tomashirstecon

(The fib in question being that Parliament can't stop ND)

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 11:35

The UK then managed to spectacularly fail to support the WA - It's own invention.

The big problem here was May trying to go it alone instead of seeking some sort of consensus from Parliament first. If she had done that and the EU agreed it, the Parliamentary vote in support should have been a certainty.

Why it is stupid to assume the Brexit Party will hurt the Tories. It is more likely to help them by hurting Labour more.

It did hurt them in Brecon and Radnor. For the party that supports FPTP because it's always suited their results, I have one word - tough!

LoonvanBoon · 07/08/2019 11:36

Dan Hannan used to say we'd stay in the single market post brexit. He may not be stupid or ill-informed but he's not been very consistent over the past 3 years either.

DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 11:36

You don't want to fight fire with fire. You want to offer a bloody alternative.

Black men leading a white man through a town in Yorkshire ?

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
RedToothBrush · 07/08/2019 11:37

Oh, and Cummings knows all this. He's said it over and over and over again. He's spelt it out bluntly. Yet no one has really paid any attention to his arrogant egotistal rants. He's TOLD remainers what the issue is and still they aren't getting it.

He can and will run rings around everyone because they've let him, as they aren't listening.

The lack of listening by parties which profess to be liberal, is quite astonishing. And why they are failing. They are only listening to people like them, in a dreadful echo chamber of bullshit.

Grr... and I find myself nodding along to some of the stuff Cummings says and wondering what the hell is wrong with me. Cos he's unfortunatley got a flipping point, which is why he's getting traction, even if he's not fundamentally right in what the solution is to national problems. He just can see how to exploit those cracks in society.

and breathe

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Mistigri · 07/08/2019 11:39

More pertinent twitter comments on the same theme

"The Cummings strategy (largely aimed at the potential rebels) has two aspects (i) We are so determined that you will have to put up or shut up (eg VONC) and (ii) Even if you do, we don’t care! Obvs (ii) is IMV largely propaganda"

And on the idea that a GE could be held immediately post ND:

"Compounding the point of greatest institutional frailty is a gamble I'm not sure even Cummings would take. Like, if it goes just a bit wrong you're a massive hostage to fortune."

Totally agree with the three comments I've c&ped.

To summarise:

  • Cummings' strategy is transparent (ND is propaganda; they're not making any serious effort to prepare for it). Don't fall for it.
  • It's aimed mainly at Tory rebels, hence the veiled threats to Grieve made on camera, and to head off Brexit party resistance.
  • There won't be a GE immediately before or after 31/10.
Songsofexperience · 07/08/2019 11:40

mistigri
I agree. Despair is a well known weapon. Cummings wants us to believe all is already lost.
It bloody isn't until it actually is.

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 11:42

If you look at the LDs, Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid there is no desire to compromise with each other or with anyone else.

They would all have to agree to be in a Coalition, and if moderate Tories were to be included, insist that the PM wasn't a Tory, and that the key roles were shared out fairly. It might come.

I can't help but think it's like a bad labour and birth, but the eventual outcome of a healthy baby makes it worthwhile.

LouiseCollins28 · 07/08/2019 11:44

The "Big Problem", IMO, is that the Withdrawal Agreement has been rejected 3 times, and so has any alternative proposal. Clearly the Government needed to negotiate an agreement, how could it be otherwise? So it did that, MPs then proceeded not to vote for it on 3 occasions. Nor have they given even an indication of what sort of deal there would be majority support for.

Blaming TM alone is just avoiding a far bigger issue. This is a failure of Parliament.

That doesn't look a lot like Yorkshire to me, btw? Confused

howabout · 07/08/2019 11:45

Another example of Boris getting on with the domestic agenda. He is not stupid either.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49196357

I know quite a lot about pensions tax. It wasn't till I looked in detailed that I understood the issue a) employers' hypothecated contribution rate of 20% b) doctors being obligated to be either fully in or out of the pension c) wage rate hypothecated contribution rates within the NHS pension scheme d) wage plus employer contribution pushing doctors over the pensions earnings cap e) pension benefits valued above the maximum cap.

When I did the calculation a fully qualified doctor earning average 110k with a student loan (ie the backbone of the service) would have a marginal tax rate of 100% or more on any overtime.

The proposals solve this and also give older doctors who have maxed out their pensions an incentive to carry on working rather than retiring early or scaling back. Ergo more doctors working more hours for the NHS.

Hazardtired · 07/08/2019 11:46

Just catching up, I cant be suckered into obsessively checking the news today. like I do most days

Can we be super cautious about calling voters thick please? Politicans I think are fair game due to the power balance...although i appreciate not everyone agrees with that, in part due to the rise in hate and threats directed at MPs.

Are people thick or are they uncaring? Some did vote leave for hopeful reasons and the slim chance things might be better against the odds. Some will call that unicorns others might say that is very normal human behaviour. I buy lotto tickets and it's a good chance that's a waste of money but still I do it.

Also from someone who isnt particulary educated...to me its worse to call someone uneducated (as a insult) because it just seems like the educated person is ignorant to the fact that formal education isn't accessible to everyone for a very vast variety of reasons. I might be weird in that respect though, as that is OTT empathetic - i would rather someone insult me in a manner which doesnt embarrass them because feeling that embarrassment hurts me more than the insult Grin

There's a soap box stance on the failure of education as well but I can't be arsed

I'll get my coat before I'm battered by master degrees and Latin Grin

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 11:47

Parliament can't be absolved of responsibility no, but Theresa May didn't even want to consult Parliament. When she eventually got round to talking to Labour it was too little too late. It is also debatable whether she held a conversation or tried to tell them that this is what they would do.

Mistigri · 07/08/2019 11:48

Another example of Boris getting on with the domestic agenda.

Hahahahaha. He's launched a "consultation". If I'm not mistaken, any changes will require legislation, which might be a bit tricky right now.

Anyone else find it hilarious that so called lexiters now have a hard-on for Blowjob?

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 11:51

howabout I am really not sure that the Doctors will be bought off with Johnson's reforms to the pensions, which are causing a huge disincentive to people putting in the extra hours.

Talking to those hospital doctors I know they are so pissed off with what has happened in the health service that it will take an awful lot to repair the damage.

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 11:53

to me its worse to call someone uneducated (as a insult) because it just seems like the educated person is ignorant to the fact that formal education isn't accessible to everyone for a very vast variety of reasons.

I agree and I hold up the sterling examples of Cameron, Johnson, Raab, Rees-Mogg as people who were expensively educated (or perhaps schooled would be a better word), to show that education and intelligence are not the same.

RedToothBrush · 07/08/2019 11:55

I don't think it's about creating despair though...

No when you are ramping up no deal and creating this blame narrative so much.

It creates a situation where if Johnson now does a deal, he's viewed as a traitor by the ex kippers. And that splits the vote on the right.

He has to look strong to keep support. Remember he could lose Tory MPs to the Brexit Party and face a GE too.

He's not winning back liberal ex Tories anytime soon because of how the culture war is raging globally.

Johnson has whipped up support for no deal. Therefore if he deals its a sign of failure unless the EU blinks and there is a massive climb down by the EU. And there is no reason (nor practical way) for the EU to do that. You can't make the need for the backstop disappear because you still have an issue over country of origin and standards with trade on the Irish border. Johnson could shaft the DUP but then again he's stuffed.

No deal is politically the easy route as the former Polish economic minister said way way back and Donald Tusk reiterated. And then that turns into a stand off of how long the UK can tolerate that.

In Johnson setting up the EU bad guy narrative there is also room for the hero to save us to appear...

Plus this no deal can be stops relies on the assumption that Johnson and Cummings will abide by the rules and the law. Its catastrophically naive to think they will.

It's all part of the same reluctance to think that no deal is a possibility.

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howabout · 07/08/2019 12:00

peregrina the reform is not about "buying off" doctors. It is about sorting out a massive disincentive to them doing the job they want to do and therefore better resourcing the NHS. The prize is improving the NHS not doctors' pay.

(The spin off may be a slight lessening of doctor frustration - I know lots of them - among my Mum mates the disincentive to working FT and the cost of outsourcing childcare or sacrificing a partners' career comes up a lot).

howabout · 07/08/2019 12:03

Red I remember about 3 years ago having a debate with you re my misgivings about "progressive liberals". Lots of echoes where we agree in your posts today.

Mistigri · 07/08/2019 12:06

It creates a situation where if Johnson now does a deal, he's viewed as a traitor by the ex kippers. And that splits the vote on the right.

So a deal must follow a GE rather than preceding it. That means that he has to find a way of making it look like he is dead set on no deal, so that when parliament blocks it, he can blame them for the resulting extension.

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