Westminstenders: Promises, promises

[RedToothBrush]

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

It's worth noting that the current "deal" (the WA) only exists because it's what the UK insisted on - and which took some swallowing on the EUs side.

The UK then managed to spectacularly fail to support the WA - It's own invention.

Once you remember/realise that, you suddenly understand the EUs total determination not to engage again until the UK has fucked off and come back with the equivalent of an underwritten loan so as not to waste everyones time.

I'm not expecting much movement from the EU on this.

People are thick, but also people are too full of pride to challenge themselves at this point

Only the thick ones... It's a sign of intelligence and comprehension to admit you were wrong, and change your opinions accordingly. Sadly it's also a sign of intelligence to be able to comprehend - and even promote - ideas you do not agree with.

In that vein I've stated before that when the FTPA was being introduced (which I supported) I totally discounted the (very learned) criticisms and fears it could lead to a zombie government as "project fear". But 7 years on, I am happy to admit to all and sundry I was wrong and should have paid more heed to the warnings.

How does No Deal being worse for the EU than for us ("They need us more than we need them!"?) square with Gove's pre-emptive blaming of the EU for not re-opening negotiations for a Deal?

The same way that us holding all the cards squares with being bullied by the EU. It doesn’t.

A lot of people seem not to be able to recognise the contradictions - or they don’t care. They hear what they want to hear. They take whatever narrative is being force fed at that moment and believe it.

We end up with people banging the drum for No Deal because they say it’s what they voted for. When the unicorns don’t appear those same people will believe No Deal was forced on them by the nasty EU.

Brexit has become a cult when removing a backstop to preserve Peace has become more important that honouring an International Treaty.

Farming Today R4:
Govt Chief Whip Mark Spencer invokes the Millennium Bug
He is a farmer but thinks all will be well
Prat
Good Brexit coverage otherwise
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0007bf5

At this point I will also admit that I know only a couple of educated Leavers. I am aware we are in our own bubbles, but I still feel deeply that lack of education has played a huge part in the ease of Leave propaganda being assimilated in UK. The suggestibility is staggering and clear on Vox Pops with Leavers 'on the street'.

Until we do more research into this (low intelligence and coercion by psyops) being a larger part of the reason to vote Leave we are destined to keep repeating it while these fuckers are in charge.

Agree lack of education and difficulty understanding long sentences (!) is part of the reason for the leave vote. Politicians/media pointing to an enemy for people in poverty and hardship to hate is an old trick and we have seen it many times in history. This time it is the immigrants/ EU/ Europe. Boris Johnson & co is really using very simple child psychology with their make Britain great again rethoric.

Not seeing much changing of opinions on here I'm afraid. Same insults still being thrown around.

A lot of people who voted Leave were not in poverty or hardship. Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson?

Nor do I necessarily think it's related to a lack of education. 1930s Germany had a well educate populace but they fell for Hitler and most of his associates were university educated men.

Um, if the baddies are going to use psyops again in a GE, can’t the goodies do the same? A ‘fight fire with fire’ approach? Isn’t there anyone rich enough on the Remain side to fund it? Although I’m not sure about the morality of this, doesn’t the end justify the means? I mean, if I was tied to someone who was trying to throw us both over a cliff, I’m sure I’d do pretty much anything to stop them!

^It's worth noting that the current "deal" (the WA) only exists because it's what the UK insisted on - and which took some swallowing on the EUs side.

The UK then managed to spectacularly fail to support the WA - It's own invention.

Once you remember/realise that, you suddenly understand the EUs total determination not to engage again until the UK has fucked off and come back with the equivalent of an underwritten loan so as not to waste everyones time.^

Agree with all of that DGR. (I guess the EU is more German car than French wife then?) I also think this is a perfectly sensible position for the EU to hold. If it wants a workable Deal as much as the UK then it makes sense to stop chasing the WA unicorn rainbows.

FWIW I don't consider Remainers or Leavers, whether Left or Right to be stupid. I also don't think the EU are stupid. I DO think TM was politically stupid to assume a fudged cake and don't eat it would suit anyone.

Why it is stupid to assume the Brexit Party will hurt the Tories. It is more likely to help them by hurting Labour more.

capx.co/its-not-just-the-tories-who-should-worry-about-the-brexit-party/

pmk

Queen I suggested that last year IIRC - Red is somewhat an expert in psyops and explained you can't 'reprogramme' people, you just end up adding more layers. Ethically it is astounding that in 21st C we have been exposed to it by our own (and probably other) countries.

'Intelligence' is the wrong thing; reflective thinking and objectivity is where it is at apparently - willing to admit I was wrong on that one which ties in with emotional intelligence too I suspect (less likely to be authoritarian if you can empathise, etc).

Analysis - not from Leave sites - of where Tory and Labour lose votes:

. Tories mostly to Farage
. Labour mostly to LDems & Greens

Not surprising, since the Tory voters are overwhelmingly Leave and Labour overwhelming Remain

Why Tories are more likely to win than Labour:

They are doing what most of their voters want

Labour are not.
Instead, like howabout they are obsessed with chasing the small minority of Lexiters and are pissing off the Remainer majority in their party, probably for many years after Brexit

Centrist voters - who often decide GEs - are pissed off with both main parties,
so most likely is a hung Parliament with Tory being largest party

Look forward to several more years of an impotent Corbyn / Labour not daring to oppose a Tory govt in case they look disloyal to Brexit

ASDA adding to the mood music ...

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/asda-employees-set-to-protest-over-punitive-new-contracts_uk_5d481feee4b0acb57fcfe462

(they've also snuck their prices up well over inflation in a few areas ...)

Well if you look at some of the claims coming from the leavers they are not just correct. They know every little about the EU. One example: take control of our borders. If you have ever travelled within Europe you know there are no borders/passport checks. The UK not being in a Schengen have control of their borders and also could have had control of immigration had they chosen to control it.

Not seeing much changing of opinions on here I'm afraid. Same insults still being thrown around.

Of course coming from Remainers, it's insults. Coming from Leavers it's "plain speaking", "calling a spade a spade", "saying it how it is" &c &c

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49258852
Brexit: Food industry seeks no-deal competition waiver

The UK food industry has asked the government to waive aspects of competition law to allow firms to co-ordinate and direct supplies with each other after a no-deal Brexit.

The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said it repeatedly asked ministers for clarity on a no-deal scenario.

Existing rules prohibit suppliers and retailers discussing supply or pricing.

The industry says leaving in the autumn could pose more supply problems than the original Brexit date last March.

The FDF, which represents a wide range of food companies and trade associations, said: "We asked for these reassurances at the end of last year. But we're still waiting."

The boss of one leading retailer told the BBC: "At the extreme, people like me and people from government will have to decide where lorries go to keep the food supply chain going. And in that scenario we'd have to work with competitors, and the government would have to suspend competition laws."

The FDF's chief operating officer Tim Rycroft told the BBC that in the event of a no deal, there would be "selective shortages" of food that would go on for "weeks or months".

"It may be the government is going to come to us and say, 'can't you guys work together to ensure that remote communities or the elderly or children - at risk groups - don't suffer from these shortages'," he said.

"We're happy to help, but the CMA can fine companies up to 10% of turnover if they are guilty of anti-competitive behaviour. So we wouldn't be able to do that without some pretty cast iron reassurances."

He said the industry had asked for these reassurances at the end of last year, but despite "support" from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, they were still waiting.

(Note: Thats Gove's old department and now Gove is in charge of No Deal...)

A government spokesman said: "The UK will be leaving the EU on 31 October and our top priority is supporting consumers and businesses in their preparations for Brexit.

"We are working closely with the food industry to support preparations as we leave the EU."

There is a precedent for the government or competition authorities to act in this way, with the government pointing to four previous examples of such orders having been made - three in relation to the defence industry (one of which was subsequently repealed), and a fourth made regarding arrangements for the supply of oil and petroleum products.

But John Fingleton, the former head of the Office for Fair Trading, warned: "The last time something like this happened was in relation to dairy prices in 2001 when companies incorrectly thought government words about higher prices for dairy farmers would protect them from competition law. It did not."

As a consequence, supermarkets faced huge fines for price fixing.

It comes after Domino's Pizza Group said it had spent £7m stockpiling ingredients, including tomato sauce, in case a no-deal Brexit disrupts supplies.

The company, which imports the tomato sauce for its pizza bases from Portugal, said the probability of shortages of ingredients had increased since March.

Great! I know what I'm doing next week.

coercion by psyops

Yes, the UK is quite literally under attack

No dealers fancy themselves modern day Churchill figures HAHA they are today's Lord Halifax.
We sadly don't have a Churchill waiting in the wings to stand up to the bullies wanting to plunder us.

A UK busily suspending it's own domestic competition laws isn't "open for business", it's starting a Fire Sale. No sane industry would come within a million miles of a country that can't guarantee basic trading conditions.

Also: Dominoes pizzas suck donkey balls.