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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

OP posts:
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Oakenbeach · 07/08/2019 07:19

Right after Brexit Day, BJ can present that as a victory

Clearly he’ll present it at a big victory.... I just don’t think that necessarily translates into Leavers gratefully voting for him. He will have delivered, removing the motivation of many Leave voters to vote for him.

Of course, many still will, but even a small fall in support from those who believe he has serve his purpose will be damaging to his chances.

Look at Churchill.... the nation was almost universally admiring of him as a wartime leader, yet as soon as the war was over they gave Labour a landslide.

woman19 · 07/08/2019 07:20

The script for today, ready for our little lexist and brexist friends.

@sturdyAlex
A summary of so many exchanges with a Brexiter.

  • I don’t believe it. You made that up.
  • Here’s the source.
  • Then they made it up.
  • Really?
  • I used to work for them and I made things up all the time.
  • You did?
  • No. I just made that up.
bellinisurge · 07/08/2019 07:39

@mathanxiety thank you for those links

howabout · 07/08/2019 08:23

Peston has had No Deal as his central assumption since March iirc. I was sceptical then as I thought MPs would get something out of indicative votes and save May to deliver WA. However he has looked right ever since this proved not to be the case.

If the EU / TM wanted to avoid No Deal they should have worked with Malthouse Compromise. If the Commons wanted to pivot to PV / Remain they should have voted for Joanna Cherry motion.

The implication from the Peston article is that Boris can / will win big in the subsequent GE. Thinking about that I would bank on it being as soon as all the emergency No Deal mitigation legislation is passed. Even with no majority he can force an anti-No Deal House to vote for almost anything he can fit in this category as otherwise they would be blocking to make their self-defined "crisis" worse.

Anything in the "Not Brexit" category has scope to garner Independent votes and so I am not sure the Parliamentary arithmetic is any worse for Boris than it was for TM. In fact it may be better given the levels of Labour defections to Independent.

woman19 · 07/08/2019 08:28

If the EU / TM wanted to avoid No Deal they should have worked with Malthouse Compromise

I just made that up. Grin

prettybird · 07/08/2019 08:37

My car is going to have a wonderful anti-collision device that means it's never going to be involved in an accident. It's not been invented yet, but I'm sure it will be in the next 6 months - because I want it.

I therefore don't need insurance in 6 months time - and the DVLA, insurance companies and police should just believe me that it is going to be invented and that I'm going to use it.

Grin
Motheroffourdragons · 07/08/2019 08:44

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Motheroffourdragons · 07/08/2019 08:47

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Peregrina · 07/08/2019 08:53

I've said all along if we drop the red lines, there is a chance to get a deal that will work.

We being Boris Johnson? Only if it can be reframed as 'What's in it for Boris?'

Motheroffourdragons · 07/08/2019 08:57

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billysboy · 07/08/2019 08:57

my money is going on Boris to win the next GE

NoWordForFluffy · 07/08/2019 08:58

Mother, you and I have said that for ages, haven't we?

It's clever though, as it makes Boris look like the baddy if the EU look like they may negotiate and he refuses to even engage.

Motheroffourdragons · 07/08/2019 09:00

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bellinisurge · 07/08/2019 09:02

@prettybird 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

QueenOfThorns · 07/08/2019 09:04

I don’t think Boj needs help from the EU to look stupid, it seems to come naturally to him. And yet squillions of people are going to vote for him in a GE, aren’t they Sad

LonelyTiredandLow · 07/08/2019 09:10

billysboy if we have another GE I'd bet on it too - his team have used psyops before and will do so again. This is not a democracy, we have to keep remembering that.

Motheroffourdragons · 07/08/2019 09:12

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NoWordForFluffy · 07/08/2019 09:15

Why are people being so stupid generally, Mother? I'm astounded at how utterly THICK so many people are. I'd never realised how prevalent it was until now.

Motheroffourdragons · 07/08/2019 09:18

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Hoooo · 07/08/2019 09:39

Millions voted for Thatcher too.

That seemed incomprehensible to me, too.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 07/08/2019 09:40

I knew I shouldn’t have watched the BBC Breakfast No Deal coverage.

Didn’t see much of it but in the few minutes I watched we had two flower importers who are very unhappy about not having a strong pound but who think their stock will be fine in the case of a No Deal as all their flowers come in refrigerated lorries so will be ok for 24/48 hours.

Then we had John Digby Jones spouting the most unbelievable claptrap about how No Deal isn’t a British problem it’s a European problem. How bad it will be for France and Germany, how great it is we’re finally standing up to Brussels, how the EU have to stop bullying us. Of course, surprise, surprise, not a word of it challenged by the interviewer.

I switched off at that point.

I’m really scared at how people are being manipulated. I can envisage a future scenario where, when the effects of No Deal are biting the hardest we’ll be told ‘but they’ve got it worse in the EU’ and people will believe it.

It is a cult. A cult on a suicide mission and we’re all held captive by it.

I feel very low today. I’m sure I’m not alone in that.

Justaboutdone · 07/08/2019 09:40

How will BJ go down in the History Books.

Surely if he drags us out of the EU kicking and screaming and No Deal is as bad as they say, then surely history will not be kind to him?

It does he just want a place in history no matter what it is?

It’s all about his ego.

LonelyTiredandLow · 07/08/2019 10:10

How do we think history will write about Brexit? It depends who "wins" surely?

People are thick, but also people are too full of pride to challenge themselves at this point; whatever fits their narrative (unicorns!) goes. I think part of it could be shutting down due to unacknowledged stress and a kind of regression - single mindedness and fingers in ears to opposing facts. A lot of these people think it isn't their job to sort out the country and won't associate their vote with the results of Brexit. If we get another wave of psyops this will only get worse with another GE.

I'm not sure how well the govt will be able to say EU is suffering though as people will still travel for holidays (who can afford it) and it will be clear on social media which side is struggling.

howabout · 07/08/2019 10:10

Which Red Lines would you all like Boris to make any pinker?

The Backstop breaches the Red Line about keeping the integrity of the UK.

The provisions on transitional oversight breach the red lines on control of borders, money and law.

The only EU suggestion to get rid of the backstop seems to be making the other 3 breaches permanent. The WA removes the UK's ability to dispute this.

What is worse is that the EU seems to think this gives us a good deal because "we want" integrity of the SM and CU, including the UK, as much as them. They also seem to think we would prefer to delegate all negotiation with 3rd Parties to them.

My FiL has a very bossy talking German female car. He sets his route before leaving the house. He frequently goes on a local detour before properly setting off on his journey. The car spends the whole detour telling him to turn around and do what it tells her for his own good. He ignores it because he actually does know better than her what he wants to do. He does it on purpose because the joke is that he misses his French wife disagreeing with him just for the sake of it. I am not sure if the EU are the German car or the French wife in this context.

TheElementsSong · 07/08/2019 10:11

No Deal isn’t a British problem it’s a European problem.

How does No Deal being worse for the EU than for us ("They need us more than we need them!"?) square with Gove's pre-emptive blaming of the EU for not re-opening negotiations for a Deal?