Germany's economy in freefall

[urbanlife]

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/25/german-economy-free-fall-exhausted-draghi-loses-magic/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

So leaving on WTO terms looks like a very sound choice. Germany props up the entire EU superstate pretty much.

I for one am feeling much more optimistic by the day.

emerald I fear you are right. Both sides have become entrenched. The middle ground seems on the surface, completely lost.
The Malthouse agreement had value, put together by remain and leave supporters. It seems that both sides could and should have done more to understand the concerns of the other side.
Remain should have respected the vote, leave could have been more magnanimous.

@Teddybear45

You seem so certain. Most other economists are very uncertain about the short and long term out look considering that this has never been attempted before.

www.economist.com/britain/2019/07/25/why-predicting-the-impact-of-a-no-deal-brexit-is-so-hard

I am assuming that you are an economist.

Overall emerald I am very disappointed that the remain insist on lowering the tone with endless, mindless insults. It helps no one.

I am not in favour of no deal. For sure UK will take a bigger hit than the other 27 EU members in the short term.

Brexit or no brext I think if the UK were to break up into 4 parts then each of the individual countries would be worse off than they are now. Safety in numbers I think.

Here’s the FT on No deal.

www.ft.com/content/27e7a1cc-3b57-11e9-b72b-2c7f526ca5d0

isthis and it’s this kind of hysterical response that ensures the complete lack of credibility in your post.

I will only say this once.

The GFA will not be destroyed under no deal or in any other circumstance.

@urbanlife - Only a few checks are needed

Really?

The border is linked with 268 border crossing points. Every month approximately 177,000 lorries, 208,000 vans, and 1,850,000 cars cross the border. Around 30,000 people cross the border daily to travel to work.

In addition, there is cross-border co-operation in areas such as health and emergency services. That means an ambulance or fire engine can come from either side of the border.

I’m a bit perturbed by all this hand wringing about Remainers blocking Brexit.

It was the ERG that blocked TM’s deal. If they had voted with her she would have won.

Please try not to rewrite the narrative. Jacob Rees Mogg could not see past the backstop. He and his ilk are the ones who stopped us from Leaving the EU in March.

If I was going to be petty I would say it was because he wanted to make the maximum profit from No Deal.

isthis but not every lorry will be checked in the same way as it wouldn’t be if you were for instance crossing over from Canada to US. It will start slow of course, and soon speed up as hauliers come prepared and everyone gets used to it.
Given that Ireland is independent it can fund its own ambulances etc I assume, and extra funding will be made available to NI.

Fast track entries will be set up and will become invisible with registered drivers with cameras using car registration recognition. This technology is already available.

It’s as hard or as smooth as you want it to be.

@urbanlife - The GFA will not be destroyed under no deal or in any other circumstance

Really? And you are basing that on what knowledge and expertise exactly?

Your lack of understanding of the border situation is apparent. Your lack of understanding of the implementation of the GFA is also apparent.

The GFA involves significantly more than trade and border checkpoints. Cross border co-operation has been implemented under the GFA in many different areas. All Ireland bodies are working together in many areas. This cannot happen without consistency in standards and rules.

I am very disappointed that the remain insist on lowering the tone with endless, mindless insults. It helps no one

It is not all remain supporters that hurl insults. However, there seems to be regular contingent of three or four. Without knowing their circumstances it is possible that their remarks come from genuine fear?

Those who live in ROI and NI, but need to cross the border each day as part of their lives will be concerned. Figures I have seen suggest there are in excess of 30,000 crossing per day. So a hard border is very inconvenient. Trade between ROI and NI would be more difficult too. Worst of all there is risk of return to violence.

Scotland wants to be independent by sound of things, but they will not face the same issues as ROI and NI.

belle and there are plenty of snouts in the EU trough getting paid very well to disrupt the UK departure trust me.

This is the lowest the sterling will get pre-Brexit. Post Brexit, even in the case of no deal, both the FTSE and the sterling will increase.

This is actually highly unlikely ... if no-deal were to result in higher sterling (unlikely) this would harm both export prospects for FTSE companies while reducing the sterling value of their foreign sales.

@urbanlife

Why should I trust you?

belle you don’t have to trust me Belle.

Sending in a bunch of weak remainers was a terrible mistake three years ago

I do think it's odd that people think that Teresa May was a remainer. She was categorically not, hence her red lines on FOM and immigration. Had she been a remainer she would have sought a compromise eg staying in the SM and CU (well her WA does that, but only for a transitional period).

As for remain voters categorising leave voters as being from the north, that is a nonsense. We are well aware that the cities voted to remain, as indeed did the Thames Valley/M3 corridor. It was the rural areas all over England that voted to leave on the whole.

@urbanlife

I don’t. But you are making assertions like you are an expert and have inside knowledge. I’d like to know your sources.

Where did you get the information that there are people trying to frustrate Brexit because they plenty of snouts in the EU trough getting paid very well to disrupt the UK departure?

emerald I have been on these threads a long time, and rarely if ever have I ever seen insults from Brexiteers. The bile usually comes from the losing side, outraged that they lost and all hell will break loose ( it didn’t, and it won’t)

@urbanlife - And how do you suggest animal checks are done? Agricultural products cross back and forth over the border. This is currently seamless. Milk from the north goes south to a dairy. Cream from that milk goes north to make baileys, for example.

it will start slow of course - Let me repeat those numbers: 177,000 lorries, 208,000 vans, and 1,850,000 cars cross the border. Around 30,000 people cross the border daily to travel to work. There are 268 different crossing points.

Given that Ireland is independent it can fund its own ambulances etc I assume, and extra funding will be made available to NI.

Which immediately contravenes the GFA which has stipulated the setting up of cross-border cooperative bodies.

The GFA also requires parity of rights north and south. Divergence from EU rights in the north will also contravene the GFA.

probs Theresa May was a hundred percent remain, look it up. She’s never tried to hide the fact. The red lines were fiction, as it turned out. Only existing in her mInd only. The knelt humbly at the alter of the EU with her compromises, and got kicked resolutely in the teeth.

user yes we were naive, and believed back then when every MP swore on oath to respect the referendum result, that they would deliver.

Obviously had a different ballot paper to me. Leaver's poster boy Farage thought we would have a Norway style arrangement, not crashing out without a deal.

But when urbanlife started spouting crap about NI/RoI and passports, I knew they were talking bollocks. YOU WON. GET OVER IT.

Is that you, Claig? Done away with your excessive formatting and bullshit numbers now?

belle I am not going to bore you with four long years of my ‘sources’, what I can tell you is that it will in the next few years become very obvious to absolutely everyone that we did the right thing to leave. I don’t need to convince you, you will be able to see for yourself. We can not go on as we are.

But you are making assertions like you are an expert and have inside knowledge. I’d like to know your sources.

Ditto. So far your admitted sources are newspaper headlines (of articles that you probably haven't even read).

Big claims require big evidence.