Germany's economy in freefall

[urbanlife]

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/25/german-economy-free-fall-exhausted-draghi-loses-magic/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

So leaving on WTO terms looks like a very sound choice. Germany props up the entire EU superstate pretty much.

I for one am feeling much more optimistic by the day.

Oo I meant Raab not Raan. I've actually dealt with Raab in my job. He got bored easy

Chinese economy contracting. That circa 6% growth is the lowest in decades and driven by domestic growth rather than any overseas investment - that has been slowing down outside certain markets for quite some time. Chinese investment overseas was underpinned by massive growth and somewhere to spend surplus funds - as the surplus reduces so will foreign investment. By contrast the Indian economy is also decreasing slightly due to global falls in demand but the IMF projects it to be growing at least 7% this year. South East Asian economies are even higher than this. In 10-15 years the balance will shift in Asia to the English speaking nexus rather than the Mandarin one.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/73f06b8a-a696-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04

Who is Raan?

The Brexit secretary was a position in name only, which is why they resigned.

The real person behind the failed deal was Oliver Robbins. Motored by a remain cabinet, directing a remain civil service. It was a remain stitch up that backfired spectacularly thanks mainly to Gina Miller. I haven’t had a chance to email my thanks to her, but I will.

Totally agree with you urbanlife! We should have left the day after the result of the referendum. I can't understand how people don't think we can cope without the EU!

That circa 6% growth is the lowest in decades and driven by domestic growth rather than any overseas investment

And, er, that's a bad thing? Growth is being driven by massive domestic investment to increase Chinese self-sufficiency in multiple industries, including fibreglass, petroleum refining, bulk petrochemicals, speciality chemicals among other things.

That the Chinese economy has slowed is not in question. But when 6% growth is a "contraction" I think you need a new dictionary.

teddy that’s spot on, as covered at length in the economist a few. On the ago.

Months ago.

We’ve all had enough of experts.

The manta now seems to be, that we’re all bleeding experts ourselves. Just cherry pick the information you see fit, squint at it for a bit, aaaaand presto we’ve all got the answers we want to see now.

I love it when people with no knowledge of business, finance, world politics and economics try to make points about Brexit.

Tell me again what happens to the pound every time we get close to no deal?

Anyone trying to claim that No Deal Brexit is a great thing is a bot or looking to make money out of it. Either way- morally bankrupt.

@urbanlife - Let me correct that for you -

If the UK had done the decent thing in the first place, and treated Ireland with respect, then maybe the relations between the countries would be in better shape. However they choose to ignore an international peace treaty and refused to countenance a deal that would ensure they honoured their commitments under that treaty.

The UK have been both dishonest and disingenuous.

Anyone trying to claim that No Deal Brexit is a great thing is a bot or looking to make money out of it. Either way- morally bankrupt.

Actually I don't think this is necessarily true of the OP. I think some people are just easily confused by newspaper headlines written by excitable subeditors.

@Mistigri - this thread isn’t about domestic Chinese growth. It’s about Europe’s contracting economy and the inability of China to invest overseas has impacted countries across the world. That 6% growth is peanuts compared to the 12-20% that China had previously (and which allowed them to invest globally). If Chinese growth stays at 6% it is a bad thing for the world’s economies which have become used to relying on Chinese money — because at these growth levels it’s focus will be primarily domestic. I think you should swot up on international economics a bit.

Wow, you people must really hate 1) business, 2) individuals in the UK. Wanting to leave the day after the Referendum? To say that and mean it, you must be... (I won't say it, or might be banned).

Ok @urbanlife - what's your solution to ensuring no hard border in Ireland.
Mine is put the border in the sea and make NI a special economic zone that is still part of tbe UK but with a reactivated Stormont.
And you?

user yes we were naive, and believed back then when every MP swore on oath to respect the referendum result, that they would deliver.

As it turned out, there are some very shady dishonest remainer politicians among them that did not care for democracy, only their own assets and second homes. Joined by other billionaires such as Richard Branston and Tony Blair to try and force their own agenda on the British people.

The establishment went into overdrive.

It’s been an eye opener for those quiet every day people on the street who trusted their MPs, the bbc and the like. The consequences will continue to play out for years.

More Scots voted to remain in EU than stay in UK

Incorrect statement. The % to remain in EU was higher than the % to remain in UK, but the Scottish turnout for the 2014 referendum was much higher than the 2016 EU referendum.

To URBANLIFE

MN is generally a female website. Mostly mothers I guess and most certainly remain supporters.

The Scots and the Irish appear to be the most bothered about Brexit for some reason? What they don't seem to grasp is that UK is a single member of the EU. It is not 4 separate members.

I was surprised that leave received a majority vote, but that was what happened. In a democracy the results of votes have to be actioned in the order they occur.

Many threads on MN whereby remain supporters think that because it is not the result they wanted then it must be ignored and if you don't reply to their questions then the leave result must be ignored. Leave supports generally categorized by remain supporters as:

Thick
Zero education
From the North of England
Unemployed
Racist
Nationalists

Actually, the most dangerous thing about a No Deal is not the economic effects.

The most dangerous thing about No Deal is the immediate effect on water, medicines, food and transport.

The chemicals for water treatment of drinking water come from Europe. A No Deal would mean that the combination of the transport back up at the ports and additional paperwork would make it impossible to keep the supply up.

This was revealed in the cabinet office briefing to our new prime minister.

That 6% growth is peanuts compared to the 12-20% that China had previously

1. China has never grown at 20%

1. You'd expect a maturing economy to slow.

China is pretty much my day job. Huge market for commodities.

Tell me again what happens to the pound every time we get close to no deal?

The fall of the pound (and the FTSE) is due more to do with uncertainty than how close we get to no deal. As soon as the UK government makes a decision both will rise again. The UK (and sterling) are actually sound investments and when we have a deal (or not) most economists are expecting an uptick in growth regardless of the decision. This is the lowest the sterling will get pre-Brexit. Post Brexit, even in the case of no deal, both the FTSE and the sterling will increase.

Still waiting @urbanlife

teddy a perfect post from you summarising exactly what is happening.

bellini the Irish border is a non issue. Only a few checks are needed as is the case everywhere in the world, and can take place away from the border. Passport checks can take place at every port and airport as is already the case. Technology will soon replace even the need for discreet checks, and a treaty between Ireland and the UK can replace the current arrangement.

Still waiting @urbanlife**

Maybe they are not bothered about the border issue?

"the Irish border is a non issue." I suppose everything that spoils your fantasy is a "non-issue ".

"the Irish border is a non issue."

For those that do not live, or never have lived, in ROI or NI maybe it is a non issue? However, I don't doubt that it must be worrying time for those that do live in ROI and NI.

I suppose everything that spoils your fantasy is a "non-issue"

Now now stop it. Everyone is entitled to their opinion even it is different to yours.

@EmeraldIsle2016 - The Scots and the Irish appear to be the most bothered about Brexit for some reason? What they don't seem to grasp is that UK is a single member of the EU. It is not 4 separate members.

Surely you're not suggesting Irish and Scottish posters are stupid? I'm sure a leave/no deal supporter would never do that.

I can't speak for Scottish posters but given that no deal would destroy the GFA, then Irish posters who value little things like peace, cooperation and civil rights are obviously going to be concerned.