Germany's economy in freefall

[urbanlife]

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/25/german-economy-free-fall-exhausted-draghi-loses-magic/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

So leaving on WTO terms looks like a very sound choice. Germany props up the entire EU superstate pretty much.

I for one am feeling much more optimistic by the day.

Is this plummeting ?
Maybe mistook which country ?

UK factories facing biggest slowdown since financial crisis, says CBI

Orders and output fell

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/23/uk-factories-facing-biggest-slowdown-since-financial-crisis-says-cbi

A double whammy of Brexit uncertainty and a slowdown in global trade has seen order books in Britain’s factories shrink at their fastest pace since the financial crisis, the CBI has said.

Urging the next prime minister, confirmed on Tuesday as Boris Johnson, to strike a deal with the EU,
the employers’ organisation said industrial output also fell in the latest quarter, for the first time since the spring of 2016.

The CBI’s industrial trends survey showed that business optimism had fallen,
investment intentions had worsened
and firms had run down the stocks built up ahead of the original 29 March Brexit deadline.

He suggests an alternative which would involve the U.K. leaving the EU as it currently is and taking a leadership role in a new 'looser' structure of organisation.

My recollection was that when an inner and outer tier of the EU was suggested to Cameron, he didn't like the idea, because he wanted to be 'on the top table'. Otherwise, the idea could have had some merit and would have been acceptable to moderate Remainers and Leavers.

US congress ‘will not endorse trade deal’ with Britain if peace agreement is weakened.

When Priti Patel talks about starving out the Irish, she maybe should learn some history and ask herself why there is a huge Irish diaspora in parts of the US?

Once the UK is out of the EU there is nothing to stop the UK government from reducing rights

True, but that does not align with the promise that people will be better off by leaving the EU.

UK to stop forcing British citizenship on NI people who identify as Irish only, forgive me if I don't share your optimism

Thought people in NI were entitled to both Irish and EU passports at same time. Even if they don’t intend to use the EU passport no harm in taking it.

If no deal breaks the GFA is it worth pursuing?

I can see how it can be a circular argument, but I think if Westminster was forced to choose between GFA or no deal I think it would be no deal. Not much help to those in ROI and NI and very likely to hinder future trade deals UK wants to pursue. Hopefully UK and EU can work something out.

but I think if Westminster was forced to choose between GFA or no deal I think it would be no deal.

So No Deal is more important than honouring an international treaty? Ms Patel may well not realise that the GFA is an international treaty but ignorance won't stop it being so.

If BJ had to choose between a successful Brexit deal - and winning a new 5 year term soon after Brexit Day -
vs
keeping faith with 10 DUP MPs

imo, he would go for the NI-only backstop, which would give rUK total freedom to do trade deals with the EU or anyone else
and would enable him to say he had got the WA changed

(although NI-only backstop was the EU proposal; it was May who insisted on all-UK)

Wrecking an international agreement is harps good advert for making new deals with anyone. We couldn't be trusted.
And Congress in tbe US has Irish descent representatives on both sides of the house in both houses. No chance of getting a deal through if we have fucked over GFA.

Shall we do a sweepstake on how soon he'll go for a NI only backstop to get us out by 31 October?

I am confident that Boris has a very good plan, he has known for a long time that his moment is coming.

The very thoughtful, considered cabinet choices reflect that he is deadly serious. Steve Baker stands to one side so that he can still communicate his feelings should the need arise (it won't) but it was a wise decision.

Everything is in place.

I don't expect to see them follow the May and grovel team model shuffling up to Brussels begging bowls in place. This going to be a much more punchy and robust exchange one that could go either way depending actually on whether the EU can afford to let us walk away now that recession is kicking in. So hold your hats folks, because whether you voted leave or remain we are in for a wild time in autumn, and I for one can not wait for the day we finally leave, and the domestic agenda can regain some focus.

I live in Germany

The economy is not in freefall 😂😂

The Torygraph live in their own Brexit alternate reality

I suppose they have to be inventive when Brexiters promised in 2016:

"as soon as we vote to Leave, we hold all the cards"
and

"German car manufacturers need us more ......"

btw, The fabled German car manufacturers, destined to ride their BMW Steeds to Castle Westminster in the UK's hour of need,
again this week backed the Withdrawal Agreement and the Single Market.

Ever since the ref, German manufacturers in all industries have publicly told the German govt to prioritise the integrity of the Single Market over retaining the British market

So No Deal is more important than honouring an international treaty?

Listening to Johnson that would appear to be the case. If EU wants to avoid no deal the backstop has to be removed from WA.

Why isn’t possible to remove the backstop? How will EU be worse off if the backstop is removed?

And by the way the UK will NOT reduce workers rights, whatever you say most of the EU law about human rights came directly out of London!

Secondly we are suited to a more outward looking model, certainly banking and trading will really thrive. Yes you will lose some jobs, but once we are out, we are out and can expand with the EU bureaucracy.

The border problem we dealt with some time ago, and I can't see that being any problem if both sides are willing.

Lastly the four quarters of the union splitting up. Well Wales voted to leave so they aren't going anywhere, same with DUP they are very pro leave, so that leaves Scotland. And quite frankly the independence issues have been rumbling on for years pre brexit, and will rumble on for years post brexit. In the end, they are unlikely to leave the union (but can if they want to of course, a matter for them)

So in the end we will get over these hurdles, and we will have our country back, and for most of us this is the most important thing.

bloc I would love to believe you, but every news outlet and paper coming out of Germany says otherwise.

No chance of getting a deal through if we have fucked over GFA

If UK does not want to include NHS in any deal as hinted by Trump and nobody trusts chlorinated chicken then USA is off the list anyway. Emerging markets such as China and india would be my preference over USA.

This was reported on here many months back, I remember a poster putting up about the EU economy or something similar in some Brexit thread and me thinking hmmm Germany can't be doing that bad...turns out it was true. Wow. I mean I think the global economy is on a knife edge anyway, but you know, one of those things that I don't lose sleep over. What will be will be.

*without the Eu bureaucracy.

"I am confident that Boris has a very good plan, he has known for a long time that his moment is coming. "
Yes, ask the EU for the impossible, wind Brexit Party people up into a frenzy when this is refused so they go back to the Tories. Show Corbyn up as a waste of space on Brexit for any Labour people still with Labour for Brexit. So they all leach over to the Tories. Get No Deal stopped by Parliament so the frenzied love him even more. Call a GE that the Tories might win with a proper majority - and get an EU extension in order to hold one.
That kind of cunning plan.

Ever since the ref, German manufacturers in all industries have publicly told the German govt to prioritise the integrity of the Single Market over retaining the British market

So from day one Germany has assumed no deal? Sounds like Johnson strategy of better deal or no deal is correct.

and I for one can not wait for the day we finally leave, and the domestic agenda can regain some focus.

Do you realize that leaving either with or without the WA is just the start of the Brexit process?
We have to actually start building new trade relationships, setting up new security protocols, establishing new systems for all the things we shared with other EU members.
I can't see this process taking less than a decade.
It is going to be a very long time before the domestic agenda takes central stage again.

@urbanlife, you are funny. I love the comedy on this thread. Keep it coming.

We are not all pro Trump despite the blinkered view on here, I would be happier seeing us expand to the asian markets as well.

I do however have a lot of time for the US as allies and friends, and they always seem to have our back. It is appreciated.

If you think the USA has our backs you aren't paying enough attention urbanlife

Asked about the capture of the British ship, Pompeo said: "The responsibility ... falls to the United Kingdom to take care of their ships."

No, Emerald German manufacturers did not assume No Deal

• they, like most of us, initially assumed the Uk would apply to join EFTA

Once May ruled this out, German manufacturers, like those in the other E27 countries, wanted a deal that kept the Single Market secure

....same with DUP they are very pro leave, so that leaves Scotland.

Urbanlife outs herself as Karen Bradley, who if you recall, didn't realise that people in NI voted along sectarian lines. You wonder where they were when the Troubles were happening? Fast asleep, or just totally ignorant of what was happening in their own Kingdom?