Germany's economy in freefall

[urbanlife]

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/25/german-economy-free-fall-exhausted-draghi-loses-magic/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

So leaving on WTO terms looks like a very sound choice. Germany props up the entire EU superstate pretty much.

I for one am feeling much more optimistic by the day.

In the Falklands crisis, Maggie's "friend", President Reagan initially prioritised US interests in South America
and ordered her to accept a deal that would give Argentina's General Galtieri 80% of what he wanted

That would have destroyed her government and let in Labour
However, she had no choice but to agree, because US power is too powerful for the UK alone to resist

Fortunately for her, Galtieri was a macho idiot and refused the deal
So then - and only then - the US swung in support of Britain

@EmeraldIsle2016 - True, but that does not align with the promise that people will be better off by leaving the EU.

Have they not stated at this stage that the benefits of leaving will not be apparent for some time?

Thought people in NI were entitled to both Irish and EU passports at same time. Even if they don’t intend to use the EU passport no harm in taking it.

You don't appear to have read what I wrote. The chunk you copied from my post is: UK to stop forcing British citizenship on NI people who identify as Irish only. What has that to do with people taking an EU passport of being entitled to both? The GFA allows for people in NI to identify as Irish only, British only or both. The UK is not recognising those who identify as Irish only as it is forcing british citizenship on them.

but I think if Westminster was forced to choose between GFA or no deal I think it would be no deal.

That, I do not doubt. Shows what the word of the UK government is worth.

Ms Pelosi said during a visit to London in April that there would be “no chance whatsoever” of a US-UK trade deal if the Northern Ireland peace agreement was weakened by Brexit

China and India are better targets than USA for trade deals as their combined population is 40% of the planet. India is formerly a UK colony and speaks English and China is next door

We need them more than they need us ?

E27 exports to the Uk are 8-18% depending on the (complicated !) calculation method

This includes a major proportion of our fresh food, veg etc
which is much easier to get from our neighbours than from across the world

In 2016, UK exports by value:

54.3% to Europe (EU / EFTA / EEA)
21.2% to Asia
16.7% to USA & Canada
2.8% to Africa.

and remember that the EU keeps all its other trade deals - 40 FTAs with 70 countries and about 800 other trade arrangements -
plus all its agencies like EURATOM

while the UK loses these

www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/

JRM has said the benefits of Brexit may take 50 years to be evident

@EmeraldIsle2016 - Why isn’t possible to remove the backstop? How will EU be worse off if the backstop is removed?

Because some of us actually give a crap about NI and ensuring the GFA continues to bring peace and prosperity.

@urbanlife - The border problem we dealt with some time ago, and I can't see that being any problem if both sides are willing.

Proof that you have absolutely no understanding of the situation.

The GFA allows for people in NI to identify as Irish only, British only or both. The UK is not recognising those who identify as Irish only as it is forcing british citizenship on them

I am not from NI or ROI, but if you can have both citizenships at the same time I can’t see how that’s a disadvantage. Get both, choose the one you want to use and forget the other.

emerald This no reason for us not to be trading with China and India at present. The EU doesn't stop us from doing this and we trade with both countries.
But there are significant difficulties to trading with both countries.
Trump's trade war with China isn't thought to be the best way of tackling the trade issues but he is right about the issues.
India also has significant trade issues although it has indicated that it would be prepared to flex on them in exchange for significant numbers of UK visas.
If trade with these countries was easy we would already be doing more of it.

Both sides being willing for the UK to shaft Ireland. Dream on.

I don't think China is 'next door' to India, in any sense. Or only in Dominic Raab's Geography books. You could just about say that Russia is 'next door' to the USA via the Bering strait and Alaska, which is strictly true but not the obvious comparison that most would make.

To be fair, every country and every trade bloc prioritises its own interests

The Uk is in the vulnerable opposition of leaving its regional trade bloc, when for years the other countries in the world have been strengthening ties to their regional trade partners

At least those countries that are not as big as the US, China & India are doing so

As the trade wonks keep telling us, geographical proximity has a big influence on how much trade is done
So does common regulation and the removal of NTBs (non-tariff barriers), enabling more "frictionless" trade

Hence the growth in regional trade blocs

The EU is the most integrated trade bloc in the world and other trade blocs are copying this integration

Because some of us actually give a crap about NI and ensuring the GFA continues to bring peace and prosperity

Now I am lost. If backstop prevents a deal which then damages the GFA why can’t it be removed? How does EU suffer if there is no backstop?

Jesus Christ. You don't know anything.

@EmeraldIsle2016 - I am not from NI or ROI, but if you can have both citizenships at the same time I can’t see how that’s a disadvantage. Get both, choose the one you want to use and forget the other.

Ffs. Not everybody in NI wants to be british. Have a read of this to see a disadvantage. Quite aside from that, if you are Irish (or British) only, being told that you must be both is insulting.

Both sides

Who are the sides you mean

"Why isn’t possible to remove the backstop?"

because EU member Ireland demands the backstop as a condition for an exit deal - the WA -
and also as a precondition for any post-Brexit trade deal

The EU won't dump a member to help out a political party in a soon to be non-member that has got itself into a mess

Even if the EU Commission, or Germany or France, wanted to - which they don't -
half the EU members are small countries, who would never accept a small country being dumped because of trade in the larger countries

@EmeraldIsle2016 - Now I am lost. If backstop prevents a deal which then damages the GFA why can’t it be removed? How does EU suffer if there is no backstop?

At this point, I have to assume you are a wind-up merchant. Nobody could be that ill-informed.

You don't know anything

So enlighten and explain how the 27 EU members will be worse off if there is no backstop?

China and India are better targets than USA for trade deals

India is a much smaller economy.

There will be no trade deal with China. Politically impossible for the U.K. govt (Chinese demands would be too controversial), and very low priority for the Chinese.

I think you vastly underestimate the difficulties of doing business with China in particular. It's a very very valuable market for U.K. companies (including my employer) but it's not an easy place to do business. You generally need Chinese partners or a Chinese subsidiary. A trade deal wouldn't really change this, but there won't be a trade deal with China anyway for the reasons given above.

So enlighten and explain how the 27 EU members will be worse off if there is no backstop?

The integrity of the single market is far more valuable to the EU than an orderly Brexit. If you haven't understood this yet then you have not been paying attention for the last three years.

OP you can't just believe everything you read in a newspaper, especially the headlines. I can't believe you were arguing that it must be correct because it was in a headline. 14 pages after being told fairly early on that 'freefall' was an embellishment its still going.

Germany are probably going to be fine even with global economies slowing down a bit. Lets hope we are too.

@Mistigri you have the patients of a saint.

@EmeraldIsle2016 - So enlighten and explain how the 27 EU members will be worse off if there is no backstop?

Ireland want assurances that, if necessary, there are procedures in place to ensure the GFA is not broken. The backstop provides that. Removing the backstop allows the UK to break the GFA. One would hope that it is not needed but given the integrity currently being shown by the UK government, there is not guarantees.

Maintaining peace and reconciliation is more important to Ireland than potential economic losses (you know, integrity). There are a large number of Irish people living in NI that Ireland is not willing to sell out.

Ireland is part of the EU. The EU supports their members so have Ireland's back.