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Brexit

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

966 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/07/2019 16:22

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

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HesterThrale · 26/07/2019 16:32

Thanks @Oakenbeach. I see your point. What would a better strategy be in Scotland?

prettybird · 26/07/2019 16:33

I think it is helpful to avoid arguing - which gives them the information they need to construct counter-messaging - but to just pick up on blatant untruths or idiocies and pick them to pieces in short factual posts.

This Grin

And you've been doing a brilliant job Misti Halo

DGRossetti · 26/07/2019 16:34

Personally I'm still confused how posters supporting Leave can be singing Johnson's praises when Farage himself doesn't trust him and has stayed quiet as a mouse while he looses out on seats.

I think Farage is increasingly scared by the forces he has unleashed. His job now is to keep very quiet, and hope that all the people he led to Brexit blame Boris for the upcoming shitshow.

probstimeforanewname · 26/07/2019 16:34

You can't just hire police

There's also the move to make the police all-graduate. Which takes time - I think it's Lincolnshire police who've said it just isn't feasible.

probstimeforanewname · 26/07/2019 16:35

Oh and I think Farage is quiet because he's busy being obnoxious in the European Parliament and making the most of the gravy train while he still can along with his BP chums. Hypocritical wotsits.

DGRossetti · 26/07/2019 16:36

Generally I try to swerve the obvious shitstirrers. They simply divert energy from engaging with real people who are open to factual debate.

Despite what you hear on the internet, the next election won't be won on the internet.

tobee · 26/07/2019 16:44

GrinGrinLaughing at them always goes down well GrinGrin

SwedishEdith · 26/07/2019 16:52

Farage has been to America.

I don't remember anyone in the UK voting for Phil Bryant. Here's his Twitter bio. All very normal.

Phil Bryant
Christian. Husband. Father. Grandfather. Conservative. Outdoorsman. 64th Governor of the great state of Mississippi.

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing
DGRossetti · 26/07/2019 16:53

How can we tell @PhilBryantMS to go fuck himself ?

LonelyTiredandLow · 26/07/2019 16:55

I do wonder if the union will come into play more as the 98 days tick down. The idea of removing the backstop needs to be explained piecemeal to "the nation" (leavers) for them to fully grasp the potential to break up the union. I wonder if the Tories will use this to back-track; because they are officially the Conservative and Unionist Party?

LonelyTiredandLow · 26/07/2019 16:57

Ah so farty pants is getting funds. Banks (Aaron) must have run dry...

dreichhighlands · 26/07/2019 16:59

lonely did I see a poll a few weeks ago that said that leavers were fine with losing Scotland and NI if they could have a hard Brexit? I honestly don't think they care.

DGRossetti · 26/07/2019 17:02

The idea of removing the backstop needs to be explained piecemeal to "the nation" (leavers) for them to fully grasp the potential to break up the union

Why ? I think it's pretty clear they couldn't give a toss. Although it does put Unionist Scottish and Unionist NI Leavers in an interesting position ....

LonelyTiredandLow · 26/07/2019 17:04

Yes, we see that but I think the Tories may see it as their sly card. We've seen for years how a "new explanation" of something can change their minds - the idea of No Deal being the end goal, for example.

dreichhighlands · 26/07/2019 17:08

DG I have given up being a Scottish unionist although DB is still a passionate Labour voting one.
The rest of the family are either ambivalent or now support independence. But they weren't conservatives.

probstimeforanewname · 26/07/2019 17:14

Farage has been to America

Wish he'd stay there. The Leavers tell us to move to the EU if we like it so much. Can he (along with JRM) move to the US if they love it so much?

Oakenbeach · 26/07/2019 17:14

Apparently there is a (possibly too hopeful rumour) that BJ is getting the ERG out of the Tories somehow by putting them up for annihilation

I don’t imagine that would play out well for BJ at all! The bulk of the Tory party membership are ERG sympathisers, and shunning them and their hardline position will lead to calls of betrayal and a turbo-charging of the Brexit Party. There’s no way he could hope to win a GE using those tactics.

probstimeforanewname · 26/07/2019 17:16

did I see a poll a few weeks ago that said that leavers were fine with losing Scotland and NI if they could have a hard Brexit? I honestly don't think they care

Yes there was - certainly in relation to NI. And no I don't think your average little Englander cares.

ListeningQuietly · 26/07/2019 17:17

There is no point trying to explain something complicated like the Backstop to 90% of the electorate.
They would never understand it.

Walking along yesterday I heard a van driver shout
"learn to drive"
at a car stalled on a junction
it was a Learner in a clearly marked instructor's car Sad

Folks like him will never 'get' complicated ideas.

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 17:17

The bulk of the Tory party membership are ERG

That's kinda irrelevant now he is PM! There are only about 100,000 of them (who are eligible to vote in a GE; the Tory leadership election allowed people to vote who would not be eligible in a GE).

Oakenbeach · 26/07/2019 17:20

I think Farage is increasingly scared by the forces he has unleashed. His job now is to keep very quiet, and hope that all the people he led to Brexit blame Boris for the upcoming shitshow.

I don’t see Farage doing that. He’ll just double down in the event of any shitshow, and blame Brussels, Remainers, TM, BJ.... anyone really, claiming that all would be ok if only we were more extreme and more hard-line. Unfortunately he’ll
have a sizeable band of followers. The only up side is that those followers will consist of many current Tory members and the Tory Party will be screwed.

Oakenbeach · 26/07/2019 17:23

That's kinda irrelevant now he is PM! There are only about 100,000 of them (who are eligible to vote in a GE; the Tory leadership election allowed people to vote who would not be eligible in a GE).

But for every Tory ERG supporting member, there are many more non-members who trend towards voting Tory..... Not a majority, but 10-15% of the population nonetheless and enough to sink Tory hopes in a GE.

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 17:24

I have just the slightest inkling that some people are worried about the official secrets act enquiry and the electoral fraud enquiry.

A criminal record would close the US escape route.

RedToothBrush · 26/07/2019 17:26

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/new-transport-secretary-grant-shapps-imposes-two-page-limit-on-rail-documents-he-has-to-read-1-9901346
New Transport Secretary Grant Shapps imposes two page limit on rail documents he has to read

In an internal email, seen by The Yorkshire Post, contributors to the Department’s Rail Group are also warned that Mr Shapps will “pay attention to the font sizes and margins” of any documents he receives.

The move is one of Mr Shapp’s first acts in the post since he took over from Chris Grayling this week, as the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson overhauled his top team.

The email, which was sent out by senior civil servants to the Rail Group, stated: “The new Secretary of State Grant Shapps has requested that submissions should be no longer than 2 pages with no exceptions and no annexes.

“The submissions should set out the issue and the recommendation.

facepalm

OP posts:
Mistigri · 26/07/2019 17:26

But for every Tory ERG supporting member, there are many more non-members who trend towards voting Tory..... Not a majority, but 10-15% of the population nonetheless and enough to sink Tory hopes in a GE.

If you assume that Tory party members are simply a subset of Tory voters. But they're not.

We don't have much data, but the two council elections where BXP stood suggest that in some places the LDs are a far bigger threat to the Tories than BXP. If BXP is only polling around 17-18% they're just UKIP Mark 2.