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Brexit

Westministenders: A New Approach? No chance.

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2019 16:04

Next week we will have a new PM. He will be called Boris Johnson unless something very odd has happened.

His first 72 hours will be 'interesting' especially if today's events are anything to go by.

His Cabinet is sure to be a horror show. It was noticable who abstained today - they don't think they will be in a Johnson Cabinet and clearly don't want to be.

To move forward Johnson must be able to survive a rebellion and a Queen's speech before now and 31st October.

And be able to unit his party in order to find a way forward.

And whilst parliament has voted to block proroguing parliament, it could still be dissolved if there is a vote of no confidence.

And what happens if Johnson loses a vote? Will he manage to become PM? Will there be a GE.

All the signs are that next week is going to be a hell of a ride.

Enjoy your weekend.

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37
tobee · 18/07/2019 23:55

Yeah I just can't see Liz going along with that.

MmeBufo · 19/07/2019 00:01

Indeed

Westministenders: A New Approach? No chance.
mathanxiety · 19/07/2019 02:57

Philip Hammond is looking very much like the grown up of the Tories and has for quite a while.

Wrt shorting/betting on the collapse of the £ - nothing new there:
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-18/brexiteer-odey-renews-hedge-fund-s-reviled-bet-on-pound-plunging
Hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, an advocate of Brexit, renewed his hotly debated wager against the British pound as U.K. lawmakers’ failure to agree on the divorce terms heightened concerns the country may crash out of the European Union without a deal.

He soured again on the sterling’s prospects last month, betting that the currency will fall further in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Odey said in an interview Monday. The 180-degree move came just weeks after he had unwound his long-running short position, in anticipation of the U.K. canceling or postponing its proposed exit and the pound bouncing back to $1.32 against the dollar.

Odey is likely to face fresh outrage on social media as some see the trade as an attempt by the London-based money manager to profit from the U.K.’s economic woes after having pushed the country toward an uncertain future. He made about 220 million pounds ($284 million) in a day when the British currency slumped following the June 2016 decision to leave the EU, though he lost that money within weeks as markets rallied.

A split in the U.K.’s opposition Labour Party with seven politicians quitting on Monday in protest against Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership will likely weigh on the pound as it increases political uncertainty, according to Mizuho International. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Theresa May is leading a last-ditch diplomatic drive to persuade EU leaders to save her Brexit agreement as she faces a rebellion from Cabinet ministers who want to stop the U.K. leaving without a deal.

Business leaders, increasingly anxious about the chaos that would ensue from a no-deal Brexit, are putting into place contingency plans across the board. A top fundraiser for the Leave campaign, Odey previously said that Theresa May got “completely mowed down” in her negotiations with the EU.

The market has also turned more bearish on the U.K. currency, with demand for downside protection increasing since lawmakers first rejected May’s Brexit deal in mid-January.

Odey’s flagship European Inc. hedge fund bet about 14 percent of its assets on a decline in the currency at the end of January, according to an investor letter seen by Bloomberg. The fund previously had the equivalent of as much as 130 percent of its assets in a short against the currency.

It's all very reminiscent of William Randolph Hurst's instruction to Frederic Remington at the time of the Spanish-American War, "You furnish the pictures and I'll furnish the war"

flouncyfanny · 19/07/2019 05:13

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flouncyfanny · 19/07/2019 05:16

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borntobequiet · 19/07/2019 05:36

My disgrace of an MP voted to prorogue. I’ve gone from thinking of her as an OK Tory constituency MP to a reckless, self interested and blind to all reality politician. She’s a Hunt supporter.

Definitely going on the march tomorrow.

flouncyfanny · 19/07/2019 05:48

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flouncyfanny · 19/07/2019 05:58

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flouncyfanny · 19/07/2019 06:07

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BigChocFrenzy · 19/07/2019 06:43

The Queen is not going to revoke
We are a democratic monarchy, which she knows, even if some MPs don't

"a radical plan involving the Queen."
Ditto

Oakenbeach · 19/07/2019 06:44

Britain elects @britainelects*
East Sheen (Richmond upon Thames) result:

LDEM: 58.9% (+12.6)
CON: 35.5% (-11.8)
WEP: 2.9% (+2.9)
LAB: 2.7% (-3.8)

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

Surely that’s a LD gain if my maths are right?!

Sostenueto · 19/07/2019 06:46

PMK.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2019 06:49

It's a LibDem hold.

The previous incumbent was Mona Adams who was a LibDem, and also the mayor of Richmond, who sadly died of cancer.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/07/2019 06:49

Odious Odey and his Brexit windfalls

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/28/crispin-odey-hedge-fund-bets-against-uk-economy-brexit-profit-falls

Odey was one of the most prominent supporters of the drive to leave the EU and donated almost £900,000 to pro-Brexit campaigns.

He placed huge bets against the pound and government bonds
in the run-up to the June 2016 referendum
and made an estimated £220m profit when the pound collapsed following the leave victory.

The day after the vote, he told the BBC:
“There’s that Italian expression – ‘Il mattino ha l’oro in bocca’ (the morning has gold in its mouth)
and never has one felt so much that idea as this morning.”

Odey has boasted that each day of Brexit-related political crisis is a “good day” for him and his hedge fund.

“I have had a good day,” he told the Times last month, on a day when the pound fell 2%.
“Bad days tend to be good days for us.”

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html

His firm Odey Asset Management has taken out more than £500 million ‘short’ positions
– which are essentially a gamble that a share price will fall –
on some of Britain’s biggest firms, implying that he expects a poor performance from them.

Odey’s apparent lack of confidence in flagship British firms stands in marked contrast to his fund’s investments in other countries,

including France, Germany and the US, where he is mainly backing shares to rise.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2019 06:55

LDEM: 58.9% (+12.6)
CON: 35.5% (-11.8)

This is such good news!

It's a (very welcome) bad sign for Zac Goldsmith.Although it's only a local- he had a teeny majority.
That's a big lead if voting patterns are repeated in a general!

Oakenbeach · 19/07/2019 07:14

It's a LibDem hold. The previous incumbent was Mona Adams who was a LibDem, and also the mayor of Richmond, who sadly died of cancer.

Thanks, so the figures must be wrong then... if you add back the swings, LDs previously had 46.3% and Tories had 47.3%.

Peregrina · 19/07/2019 07:15

The turn out was pretty dismal even for a by-election. Could be that wealthy Tories didn't bother to turn out.
Andrew Teal in Britain Elects says:
If a large proportion of your vote comes from rich people with high-powered responsible jobs who would like to keep them, then the first rule of your political campaigning is not to piss off rich people with high-powered responsible jobs who would like to keep them. Which is where the Conservative Party has been going wrong over the last four years.

Oakenbeach · 19/07/2019 07:16

Brixworth (Daventry) result:

LDEM: 49.5% (+38.6)
CON: 37.3% (-28.2)
LAB: 13.2% (-10.5)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

A particularly stunning result.

Oakenbeach · 19/07/2019 07:19

The turn out was pretty dismal even for a by-election. Could be that wealthy Tories didn't bother to turn out.

It’s those City-type Tories who are actually more likely to swing behind the LibDems in current circumstances.... I speak as one of them (though I’m not actually based in the City).

NoWordForFluffy · 19/07/2019 07:21

Considering South Northants is Loathsome country, AND Northants is VERY Brexity in general, the godawful bunch of Tories (Peter Bone, anyone?!) in that county should pay attention to that.

If you recall, Northants was deprived of local elections due to the county council financial shenanigans going on, so wasn't tested in May.

Peregrina · 19/07/2019 07:40

Considering South Northants is Loathsome country, AND Northants is VERY Brexity in general,
These people are unlikely to be City type Tories - this is pig in a blue rosette country.

twitter.com/britainelects/status/1151990458379190272
The comments are entertaining - it's absolutely clear that people by voting for an unashamedly Remain party just want to get on with Brexit.

bellinisurge · 19/07/2019 07:43

I wonder if this "involve the Queen" thing is actually a No Dealer scare story.
She is canny enough not to get involved regardless of her cool Euro hat. To do so would risk the existence of the monarchy.

LonelyTiredandLow · 19/07/2019 07:47

If the guy paid to check economics of No Deal is threatened with death, the Queen is not going to revoke. When ERG types talk about revolution/uprising that is the exact type of thing they want as a trigger. I do think it would show them up as the traitors they are and possibly embarrass their family names in the history books (poor Sextus Mogg would be bullied at Eton what with the other kiddies knowing the monarch has had to step in to prevent your father becoming a supporter of a despot), yet I just can't see it happening.

NoWordForFluffy · 19/07/2019 07:47

Actually, LOADS of people in Northants commute to City jobs as it's only an hour or less by train into London. But yes, pig with a blue rosette still.

lonelyplanetmum · 19/07/2019 07:48

Oakenbeach- here's the 2018 figures. So slightly different but still a huge gain.

Westministenders: A New Approach? No chance.
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