Westministenders: A New Approach? No chance.

[RedToothBrush]

Next week we will have a new PM. He will be called Boris Johnson unless something very odd has happened.

His first 72 hours will be 'interesting' especially if today's events are anything to go by.

His Cabinet is sure to be a horror show. It was noticable who abstained today - they don't think they will be in a Johnson Cabinet and clearly don't want to be.

To move forward Johnson must be able to survive a rebellion and a Queen's speech before now and 31st October.

And be able to unit his party in order to find a way forward.

And whilst parliament has voted to block proroguing parliament, it could still be dissolved if there is a vote of no confidence.

And what happens if Johnson loses a vote? Will he manage to become PM? Will there be a GE.

All the signs are that next week is going to be a hell of a ride.

Enjoy your weekend.

but my understanding is that those 30 ARE saying they'll vote against the government in a VoNC

Mine too Fluffy. I thought Dominic Grieve had said as much.

He has, Singing.

What is happening right now is unprecedented. Expect the - previously - unexpected.

Has Theresa May said she is going to stand down at the next election? That's something I missed. All political careers end in failure.

The leaders who start out as jokes—people make fun of them, they’re caricatures, cartoons in newspapers, and people decide they are harmless. Those men are the most dangerous.

Absolutely.

I'm pretty sure she did. Ages ago, mind.

I may be recalling it incorrectly.

Unless she just meant as leader. 🤔🤔

But, anyway...expect the unexpected!

but my understanding is that those 30 ARE saying they'll vote against the government in a VoNC

If someone could source that it would be helpful.
The best source I’m aware for quantifying potential numbers of those prepared to vote down the Government is Tobias Ellwood’s
comments a few weeks ago:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-48742881

Mine too Fluffy. I thought Dominic Grieve had said as much.

Don’t believe he has, but willing to be corrected.

But they can't block no deal, it's the default. They can try to sort some kind of legislation which attempts to force the PM's hand to ask for an extension or something

It can be stopped if legislation is passed which requires the Government either to revoke Article 50, hold a referendum or a General Election if a WA isn’t agreed by a certain date.

Of course, the EU would have to agree to extend in the event of a GE or Referendum, but they’ve repeatedly stated they would.

Don’t believe he has, but willing to be corrected.

You may well be right Oakenbeach. I can find lots of references to him saying there would be a number of MPs and ministers who would do this but no specific numbers. I might have conflated his remarks with someone else’s speculation on the actual number.

That's the Cherry amendment from last time which was voted down, essentially, Oakenbeach.

It needs a non-Scottish MP to put something similar forwards again.

And Grieve HAS said, very clearly, he'd vote against the government in a VoNC. It was all over the news / Twitter.

That's the Cherry amendment from last time which was voted down, essentially, Oakenbeach.
It needs a non-Scottish MP to put something similar forwards again.

Yes, but times have moved on and if Tory MPs want to be sure of blocking no-deal, they need to put aside qualms of mandating a change to the no-deal default through a GE or Referendum (or even Revoke but that’s not going to be the path a BJ Government would take if backed into a corner). If they can’t overcome those qualms, or muster the strength to vote down the Government, then we will get a no-deal Brexit.

And Grieve HAS said, very clearly, he'd vote against the government in a VoNC. It was all over the news / Twitter.

Yes, Grieve absolutely has... I’m not querying this,
rather that he’s said that 30 MPs will follow him.

Ah. We're at cross purposes. I'm not saying that Grieve HAS said that. I'm saying, though, that my understanding is that there will be around that many who will.

Well, let's see how many of them have the spine to actually do something decisive for the country which may be career-shattering for them.

*Lib Dems new leader result to be announced at 4pm today.

Jo Swinson was more in favour than Ed Davey of working with the other parties at an election.

Jo Swinson might not be so keen on a GE, given that there is a strong probability possibility that she would lose her seat

From some points of view, the past 2 years since the GE has been a succession of weeks where we've wondered "surely now they must stand against the tide" - and it's not happened yet. A lot of sound and fury, yes, but thus far it's been a tale told by an idiot, signifying nothing.

pretty Swinson had over 5000 majority in 2017; do you think her seat is at risk from the SNP?

In 2015, there was a swing of 29% to the SNP, to overturn Jo's 2,000 majority over Labour (the SNP had been fourth in 2010 ), to win a majority of 2,000 themselves. So anything is possible

FWIW: she is a good constituency MP - and Jon Nicholson (the SNP MP) wasn't as good (according to my dad, although he won't go back to voting for her).

First resignation of the week is Sir Alan Duncan

Yep, a shame but not a surprise, long thought that he was a pretty decent sort.

Jo Swinson might not be so keen on a GE, given that there is a strong possibility that she would lose her seat

Even if she had some personal fears about her seat, she’d hardly not support a VONC in the Government as a result! If she did that, she’d have written her political suicide note, and turned
the possibility of losing her seat to an absolute certainty (and be the shortest-lived as political leader in history - apart from perhaps the female UKIP whose name I forget in 2016).

Besides given the LDs are surging from
where they were in 2017, and the SNP is running at about the same level as it has been, she shouldn’t be overly concerned.

Is it true that Raab was on R4 this morning saying that we'd get a great Brexit deal because 50 years ago we put a man on the moon??

Is it true that Raab was on R4 this morning saying that we'd get a great Brexit deal because 50 years ago we put a man on the moon??

And what was his part in that ?