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Brexit

Westministenders: A New Approach? No chance.

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2019 16:04

Next week we will have a new PM. He will be called Boris Johnson unless something very odd has happened.

His first 72 hours will be 'interesting' especially if today's events are anything to go by.

His Cabinet is sure to be a horror show. It was noticable who abstained today - they don't think they will be in a Johnson Cabinet and clearly don't want to be.

To move forward Johnson must be able to survive a rebellion and a Queen's speech before now and 31st October.

And be able to unit his party in order to find a way forward.

And whilst parliament has voted to block proroguing parliament, it could still be dissolved if there is a vote of no confidence.

And what happens if Johnson loses a vote? Will he manage to become PM? Will there be a GE.

All the signs are that next week is going to be a hell of a ride.

Enjoy your weekend.

OP posts:
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Whisky2014 · 21/07/2019 14:06

How sure are we BJ will be the winner here? I have a sneaky suspicion the underdog might get it..

DGRossetti · 21/07/2019 14:08

I am suspecting that Iran - for reasons best known to itself (but possibly involving a memory of Operation Ajax) - is taking the vanguard in probing the UKs post-Brexit weakness and isolation. There's probably enough blood in the metaphorical waters for a lot of countries to start circling a UK that has decided to voluntarily cripple itself with internecine disputes.

The single line which hints at how bad things are:

HMS Montrose was alerted but it was too far away to stop the seizure. (www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49061675)

It's hard to avoid the feeling that A Lot of Things are about to happen At The Same Time ....

prettybird · 21/07/2019 14:09

An excellent article from the ever insightful Fintan O'Toole, tearing apart BoJo's "akratic" character Shock

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/08/15/boris-johnson-ham-of-fate/?fbclid=IwAR1kCqlV8SbiebpqAv3fAghmkB02JNlhSGZzzQ0lp7P_lQVK2U567oGp5v0

While we are using Greek terms, I'm surprised that hubris and nemesis aren't mentioned, given that they are inevitable stages in the UK's future (or at least England's future Hmm) Sad

DGRossetti · 21/07/2019 14:11

Meanwhile, the US would love to help the UK, but it seems they are facing their own critical situation:

abcnews.go.com/Politics/dhs-warns-russian-efforts-divide-america-pineapple-pizza/story?id=64444702

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is warning that Russian agents could seek to further divide Americans by exploiting U.S. passions over whether pineapple belongs on pizza.

(contd)

No, I didn't make that up. And to answer my DB, it's too late to undo becoming an American - you've found your people now.

Grinchly · 21/07/2019 14:47

Great article posted by Prettybird.Thanks

DGRossetti · 21/07/2019 15:10

.

Westministenders: A New Approach? No chance.
tobee · 21/07/2019 17:09

Looking at Peregrina comment up thread siting Gyimah, Hammond and Grieve et al being heavy weight opposition. Points up the fact that we need heavyweight backbench opposition. Because we're going to be long time waiting for anything heavyweight from Her Majesty's Official Opposition.

I still don't see JRM getting a cabinet position as I don't think he'd sully his "patrician" hands in that way.

tobee · 21/07/2019 17:29

Oh yeah.

The speculation about Johnson cabinet. It really strikes me as a cabinet of all the talents.

prettybird · 21/07/2019 18:00

I'll eat my hat if JRM were offered and accepted a Cabinet position Shock

He enjoys sniping from the snidelines too much Hmm

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 21/07/2019 18:15

An extremely belated thank you to Red - I think I’ve missed a few threads. Hope the move went well.

Emerging from a pile of PIP application forms and other assorted life-crap and trying my best to catch-up. Can anyone enlighten me re the Commons vote to stop the PM proroguing Parliament? There are supposed to be in excess of thirty Tories who will support a No Confidence vote yet only seventeen Tory rebels for this vote plus, was it, five Cabinet ministers? So we seem to be missing at least eight? If they would support a NC vote why would they not support a vote to prevent Parliament being prorogued? Were they all hiding in a cupboard with Jeremy Hunt?

Meanwhile, looks like Tobias Ellwood will be resigning soon:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-no-deal-tory-leadership-labour-tobias-ellwood-a9014491.html

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2019 18:21

Finton O'Toole: on Boris Johnson

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/08/15/boris-johnson-ham-of-fate/

Johnson was, in his own words, “veering all over the place like a shopping trolley.”

On Saturday, February 20, he texted Prime Minister David Cameron to say he was going to advocate for Brexit.

A few hours later, he texted again to say that he might change his mind and back Remain.

Sometime between then and the following day, he wrote at least two different columns for the Daily Telegraph -
his deadline was looming, so he wrote one passionately arguing for Leave and one arguing that the cost of Brexit would be too high.

(Asked once if he had any convictions, Johnson replied, “Only one - for speeding…”)

Then, early on Sunday evening, he texted Cameron to say that he was about to announce irrevocably that he was backing Leave.

But, as Cameron told his communications director, Craig Oliver, at the time,
Johnson added two remarkable things.

One was that “he doesn’t expect to win, believing Brexit will be ‘crushed.’”

The other was staggering:
“‘He actually said he thought we could leave and still have a seat on the European Council—still making decisions.’”

The expectation - perhaps the hope - of defeat is telling.

Johnson’s anti-EU rhetoric was always a Punch and Judy show, and without the EU to play Judy, the show would be over.

But the belief that Britain would keep its seat on the European Council (which consists of the leaders of each member state and makes most of the EU’s big political decisions),
even if it left the EU, is mind-melting.

Not only was Johnson unconvinced that he was taking the right side on one of the most important questions his country has faced since World War I
but he was unaware of the most basic consequence of Brexit.
....
From Oxford he soon sailed into a position as a graduate trainee at The Times.
It was there that he learned a valuable lesson: it pays to fabricate stories.
....
it never matters whether the stories are true; what matters is that they are ludicrous enough to fly under the radar of credibility and hit the sweet spot where preexisting prejudices are confirmed.
....
So while Trump’s anarchism shades into authoritarianism, Johnson’s shades into a kind of insouciant nihilism.
...
“Brexit means Brexit and we are going to make a Titanic success of it.”
....
There is a fatalistic end-of-days pleasure in the idea of Boris doing his Churchill impressions while the iceberg looms ever closer.
When things are too serious to be contemplated in sobriety, send in the clown.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2019 18:22

oops, crosspost with pretty !

Iambuffy · 21/07/2019 20:10

Well.
Nothing we didnt know.
Fuckadoodledoo

Hazardtired · 21/07/2019 21:05

singing yup a vote passed so new PM can't suspend parliment in order for no deal to just happen.... as for the rest Tories are cowards so lack rebels???

Red posted yesterday about Hammond and a handfull of MPs possible doing something like a no confidence vote or even defecting to the lib dems... If the latter happens then I'm surprised and tickled pink.

Hope the PIP form went ok.... I hate pip form Wine

Iambuffy · 21/07/2019 21:08

Waves to singing 👋

prettybird · 21/07/2019 21:29

Came across this article about why so many incompetent men are promoted and become leaders.

Can't imagine why I thought it was particularly relevant at the moment on both the UK and the US?! Wink

And following on from Fintan O'Toole's article, this one mentions hubris Grin

https://hbr.org/2013/08/why-do-so-many-incompetent-men?utmmedium=social&utmsource=facebook&utm_campaign=hbr

OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/07/2019 22:09

It could be Johnson chairing Cobra very soon :(

Mistigri · 21/07/2019 22:12

Jo Maugham has another court case up his sleeve. More tomorrow.

Go Jo! Sock it to Bo Jo.

cherin · 21/07/2019 22:28

Very interesting article that one, pretty. I recognise many observations, unfortunately.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 22/07/2019 00:17

Thanks Hazard and Buffy

Didn’t Hammond pretty much rule out voting Johnson down on the Andrew Marr show? Was only able to half watch/listen so may have misunderstood.

Still reeling at David Davis deciding anything other than Chancellor or Foreign Sec is beneath him. Confused. His incompetence and lack of intellectual rigour has been dazzling even in the face of some exceptionally strong competition. I’m stunned by his combination of arrogance and lack of self-awareness.

tobee · 22/07/2019 00:59

He even admits he's not that bright!!!

lonelyplanetmum · 22/07/2019 06:14

It could be Johnson chairing Cobra very soon :(

Good point.

For Iran or any other even larger national or international crisis the person we are choosing to trust, ..the statesman with the best judgment in the country, the most talented, principled human with solid shrewd impeccable judgment ... is Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

How dangerous is he? He definitely sees some people as other - his comments about making buses with the happy smiling plebs on them and dissing Varadker as not being called Murphy like the rest of them.

“Beware those men, the jokers and the tricksters and the clowns. They will laugh us into Hell.” (Years & Years)

"She told me something that has stayed with me. Ferber said, ‘Beware the clowns.’ The leaders who start out as jokes—people make fun of them, they’re caricatures, cartoons in newspapers, and people decide they are harmless. Those men are the most dangerous. The day comes when they use their power against their own people.” (Adriana Trigiani, All the stars in the heavens )

Oakenbeach · 22/07/2019 07:11

There are supposed to be in excess of thirty Tories who will support a No Confidence vote

I’m not sure where you picked up on that.... I’ve heard 30 mentioned as the number who will support attempts to block a no-deal, but my understanding is that only a minority of those have indicated they would be prepared to press the nuclear button and vote down the Government in a VONC.

I think reluctance to support a VONC is as much about shaping the future of the Conservatives as anything. If the ‘moderates’ voted down the Government en masse, they’d be expelled and they’d have lost the war for the soul of their party once and for all. Better for them to block no-deal and force the Government to come to a Brexit compromise. If they can achieve that, it’s then possible that a few of the Brexit ultras will join the Brexit Party in disgust and bring down the Government from the opposite direction....

I’d expect large numbers of hard-line Brexiteer party members to follow suit, give up on the Tories, and put their weight firmly behind the Brexit Party. Hammond and co could then start the long journey of bringing then Tories back to the centre (after electoral disaster in the next GE).

NoWordForFluffy · 22/07/2019 07:24

But they can't block no deal, it's the default. They can try to sort some kind of legislation which attempts to force the PM's hand to ask for an extension or something, but my understanding is that those 30 ARE saying they'll vote against the government in a VoNC.

Some will be standing down anyway at the next election due to retirement. There's rumours that some will change party. It's not as cut and dried as saying that they'll be expelled from the party, goodbye. By voting against the government they're saying they don't want to be part of the party anyway; it's a calculated move.

I can imagine there's a good few who will be considering whether it's this week that's the best time to do it and that there are numerous backstage conversations with other parties about tactics!

And you know what, given that they shat on her from height (helped by her own intransigence, admittedly), AND that she's already said she's retiring at the next election, I'd bloody be watching TM with interest at this point too!

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