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Brexit

Westminstenders: Long live liberalism

976 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/06/2019 11:54

Talk of its demise are premature.

(Sorry up to eyeballs this weekend)

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 19:44

Sunday Times:

BJ’s Brexit team would be Jacob Rees-Mogg, Geoffrey Cox, (attorney general), Stephen Barclay, (current Brexit secretary)

Hunt’s team would include (Conservative ex-PM of Canada) and 2 British trade negotiators

Westminstenders: Long live liberalism
BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 19:45

um, there will be no new deal to negotiate Confused

NoWordForFluffy · 30/06/2019 19:47

I wish that TM would have the guts to say "Sd you lot. I am revoking." If they want to know why, it's because they didn't support her.*

My wish is similar, but in the past tense, i.e. 'Sod you lot; I've revoked!' Otherwise they'd somehow stop her doing it if given prior warning!

howabout · 30/06/2019 20:00

I give that Times front page about as much credence as yesterday's. The Canadian had already disavowed it on twitter by Marr at 10.

Times in full Murdoch stooge mode atm. Even Matthew Syed was studiously on message on the paper review last night - was struggling with his poker face though. Grin

Oakenbeach · 30/06/2019 20:04

A defeat on an explicitly worded vote of confidence, and the failure to achieve a second vote of confidence within 14 days, is one of only two ways in which an early election can be called.

This Government will only go when forced to do so legally... if there is any legal doubt whatsoever, it will stay put. A properly worded VONC is the only route.

Should that be called in the autumn, and if enough Tory MPs indicate they would support it, I wouldn’t put it past BJ to prorogue Parliament before a vote can be taken.... This would be the most significant constitutional moment since the Civil War.... not just because it would take away Parliament’s right to remove a Government, thus enabling the most momentous national event since WWII, but because BJ, having taken the nuclear step of prorogation, would hardly recall it again on 1st November only to be faced with an inevitable successful VONC.... No, he would say that the Government needed a “brief” period to manage the post-Brexit crisis/disaster... of a week, then a month, then etc.... until the country cracks living under a BJ “dictatorship” as we flail around in economic and political turmoil... and the unthinkable happens, and we have a revolution. This might sound crazy, and it is crazy, but I can’t see how else prorogation to force through Brexit ends.

prettybird · 30/06/2019 20:08

howabout - you're right about Matthew Syed last night on Press Preview. Dh and I were very Hmm at what he was saying. Totally inconsistent with everything I've heard him saying before on Press Preview Confused

RedToothBrush · 30/06/2019 20:20

What WERE you thinking?

We were thinking we've got no bloody wardrobes and we have a big van...

I apologise cos I've no idea what else is going on this weekend, and certainly not what's going on with Brexit.

It's the longest I've been without watching or reading some kind of news since 2003 and that was 3 days of cold turkey backpacking before I got twitchy and had to find Internet to find out what's happening in the world.

Hopefully I will at least have a TV tomorrow now I've finally found the cables!

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 20:23

Tony Connelly - Brexit: The return of no-deal and the Irish border

www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0628/1059105-brexit-deal-border/

The EU currently has 17 frontiers with third countries.
With no-deal the Irish land border would be the 18th.

The baseline position is that under EU customs rules there is a well-known set of regulatory obligations that member states are required to enforce in managing a border with a third country.

This covers
the collection of tariff duties, which goes into the EU’s "own resources" when it comes to the EU’s budget.

Some 63 checks and controls in all make up a spectrum of customs, regulatory, fiscal, safety and security checks.

While it is impossible to impose a hierarchy,
the most important would probably be within the "sanitary and phyto-sanitary" sphere, or SPS, given the scale of cross-border trade in agri-food.

In order to preserve food safety and animal health, all member states have signed up to an increasingly strict set of rules.
Border Inspection Posts (BIPs) are required because of the very high level of regulatory controls under this rule-book.

These regulations do not leave much room for flexibility or innovation.
The rules are relatively clear and well known to customs officials,
and BIPs require infrastructure and planning.
......
Alternative Arrangements Commissions (AAC) < Karlsson-aided fantasy from the Brexiters > ......

the proposal of a single animal health and food safety "area" comprising the island of Ireland and island of Great Britain was dismissed as a non-starter,

since it would mean Ireland having to exit parts of the single market.
........
the European Commission has set five tests that alternative arrangements will have to meet,
whether the freelance options by the AAC or the UK government’s own official ideas,
which can only be worked up jointly with the Commission once the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified.

These are that they must ensure no hard border;

they must comply with both the Union Customs Code and WTO rules;

they must treat all member states equally (ie, Ireland cannot become a semi-detached member through some joint SPS-zone with the UK);

and finally, they must comply with the objectives of the all-island economy.
........
In a no-deal scenario .....
The EU has already declared that if the UK wants to quickly re-establish a trading relationship with the bloc
then it will have to accept a backstop-style agreement on the Irish border as a precondition,
alongside citizens’ rights and the exit bill.

Oakenbeach · 30/06/2019 21:21

If we do get a VONC, and it looks like “no confidence” will win.... then I expect the rebel Tory few will become the many as they consider the enormity of the implications (whatever they may be saying currently).

Take Nicky Morgan for instance... she couldn’t plausibly campaign on a no-deal ticket in any GE - even if she did, she’d stand a high chance of losing her seat and her career would be over, forever, her reputation irrevocably destroyed.

Her best chance - as with other similar Tories (Rudd, Stewart etc) - would be to pay the price now and become a leading part of a moderate “Tory” party that eventually emerges 5-10 years from now once the current Tories self-immolate after their march to oblivion following the pied piper of Thanet (ie Farage)

tobee · 30/06/2019 21:24

Thanks for the new thread Red. Hope is fun & exciting now you're there in your new abode. 🥂 🍾 🎉 Cake

QueenOfThorns · 30/06/2019 21:27

Oakenbeach, the Queen has to approve the request to prorogue Parliament. I don’t think she’d agree if it was to avoid a VONC, would she? It wouldn’t even be particularly controversial of her to turn down a request to establish a dictatorship!

BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 21:48

Nicky Morgan - like ex-Tory Nick Boles - has been behaving very oddly for some time,
by collaborating with the ERG in their sucessive fantasies about removing the backstop, Hmm

including the latest idiocy from Singham that Connolly & others have already debunked

I can only think it is for career reasons

I have no confidence she would go against her new chums, even if No Deal looked imminent

BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 21:51

Some other Tories might, but would they be counter-balanced by Labour Leavers - Hoey & co - supporting BJ ?

Oakenbeach · 30/06/2019 21:55

@QueenOfThorns

Yes, I believe prorogation would require the Queen’s assent... It would put her in an invidious position. She would be acting overtly politically for the first time in her reign, and moreover in a more profound than at any time since Queen Anne - with massive implications for our constitutional monarchy.

Moreover in the febrile and emotionally charged environment of that moment in the autumn, it wouldn’t be universally recognised as the start of a process that would end up as a dictatorship... there would be genuine support by many Brexiteers for the “necessary action to ensure the will of the people is respected”, with promises that it would “only be temporary”.

Oakenbeach · 30/06/2019 22:15

@BigChocFrenzy

Nicky Morgan et al are desperate for a deal... If she can resolve the backstop problem (and she has to be chummy with the ERG to
do this), as she is feverishly attempting to do, and then the Tory party delivers on its promise to deliver Brexit by passing the WA, the crisis is averted (for the time being) - for instance, Ken Clarke would be totally on board with that.

But this isn’t inconsistent with anything I’ve written....

BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 22:22

She is indulging the ERG in their lies & fantasies

The latest - which she has been pushing hard - involves a partial Irexit and several other non-starters, see Connelly link and also prev thread

IDIOCY
Total waste of time and she is a fool to push crap from Singham & co

BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 22:27

Another fool - Hunt:

Tory leadership hopeful says he would tell bankrupt firms their sacrifice was worth it

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/30/jeremy-hunt-i-would-tell-bust-businesses-no-deal-brexit-was-worth-it

Asked whether, under such a policy,
he would be willing to look the owners of family businesses in the eye and say they should be prepared to see their companies go bust to ensure a no-deal Brexit

Hunt said: “I would do so but I’d do it with a heavy heart precisely because of the risks.”

Hunt said he would tell business owners that a no-deal Brexit was necessary to maintain the UK’s image abroad as
“a country where politicians do what the people tell them to do”.
< the people said you should bankrupt British businesses ? Confused >

Oakenbeach · 30/06/2019 22:28

She is indulging the ERG in their lies & fantasies

She is, but she’s a desperate woman... she has to strain every sinew to avoid the awful choice she’ll
face if we are faced with a no-deal GE.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 22:28

so small firms, farmers etc can be sacrificed

Hunt himself won't go bankrupt, of course

Iambuffy · 30/06/2019 22:33

oak
Awful choice?
Losing her seat you mean!

BigChocFrenzy · 30/06/2019 22:34

She needs to try something that has a chance of being acceptable to the EU
not tout fantasies, lies and broken GFA promises
repackaging stale ERG ideas tha the EU have repeatedly rejected

Totally pointless waste of time, when the clock is ticking
The EU binned this report on receipt

tobee · 30/06/2019 22:37

What has Nick Boles been up to?

Peregrina · 30/06/2019 22:38

Hunt said he would tell business owners that a no-deal Brexit was necessary to maintain the UK’s image abroad

Does he really think that's a vote winner? May's 'dementia tax' didn't win her any votes last time, so why would 'bankrupt your business'?
I think May was perfectly right to question how we should pay for social care; she just went about it in a cack-handed way.

Oakenbeach · 30/06/2019 22:42

@lambuffy

If she fights on a “no-deal” ticket, and loses, she’s finished in politics forever, as she’ll
have sold out and actual Brexiteers will never trust her enough.... same goes for Greening and many others who are known for their remain leaning views.

If she did win her seat, she’ll be side-lined as not a “true believer”.

The best way to retain political influence would
be to break ranks and be part of the moderate Tory revival when the Tories finally implode when Brexit stresses eventually become too much.

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