Westminstenders: Long live liberalism

[RedToothBrush]

Talk of its demise are premature.

(Sorry up to eyeballs this weekend)

[NoWordForFluffy]

You moved, Red! Woooo! I bet you thought it'd never happen. Good luck with it all.

PMK, thank you.

I'm getting so much more than I already was frustrated with the thick-as-pig-shittedness of our wannabe PMs and their equally fucking dim (why did autocorrect change that to fun?!) 'advisors'. I just despair that, actually, the majority (or a large minority) of the electorate appears to be so thick and / or apathetic that they get away with it and they're believed.

[howabout]

Pretty are you claiming the 223,000 Brexit Party voters in the EP elections for the SNP as well?

BBC round up of Boris vs Huntrepeneur on the Union. SNP obligatory derision is as per.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48817848

I thought it was an SNP suggestion / demand that all policies be stress tested for their impact on the Union? Grievance politics can be difficult to sustain.

[Iambuffy]

Congrats on the move red

I'm slightly cheered by that article on BJ not commanding a majority....

However for that to happen it would would mean that;

1. Tories who have declared they wont serve under BJ actually keep their word.

1. That labour rebels like hoey and skinner and the DUP dont prop his sticky-taped-together-unholy-alliance majority up.

Tbh, I don't think either of the above likely :(

So. BJ it is then.

[1tisILeClerc]

So, what we know so far is:
We don't really want Boris.
We don't really want Hunt.
We weren't happy with Treeza.
We don't want to stay in the EU.
We don't want to leave the EU.
We don't want to treat all 4 parts of the union as equal.
We don't want to break up the union.
So, to paraphrase Mr Barnier who put it politely:
What the fuck DO you want?

[RHTawneyonabus]

I feel more convinced we won’t be leaving. If noticed a subtle shift at work in our bi-weekly Brexit planning meeting from people saying ‘when we leave the EU’ to ‘if we leave the EU’. Politics has to collide with reality at some point doesn’t it?

[ComeAndDance]

PMK

[howabout]

Professor Michael Keating of Aberdeen University and Centre for Constitutional Change was on Politics Scotland this morning. His take was quite a lot different from the Guardian professors.

In fact he went as far as to point out that even a vote of NC in the Government could not block No Deal Brexit what with it already being the default in UK Legislation. He saw the only mechanisms as Revoke (he classed chances of Tory Govt bringing legislation for this and Parl passing as highly unlikely) or Request for Extension for GE (possible but still unlikely) or pass a Deal any Deal (not sure if he thought this likely or not)

Worth looking up whole interview on iplayer if you can access.

[prettybird]

No, howabout - I was specifically talking about BJ's comments about Ruth Davidson leading the resurgence of the Scottish Conservatives, as per my quote ....so how many votes the Brexit Party got is irrelevant - unless you are suggesting that wee Ruthie is a closet Brexit Party supporter?

[DGRossetti]

It's been noted for a while now that the situation regarding Tory Leader, PM, and her Madge is .... undetermined. Thanks to the FTPA (in fact we may yet end up praising the LibDems coalition years )

One thing I can well believe is the palace will have been keeping a massive arms length between the shitshow currently unfolding, and QE2. Even if Hunt/Johnson were to try and approach them to get a steer. I also suspect the palace will be expecting the opposition (remember it's Her Majesties Loyal Opposition) to do the heavy lifting with regards to flagging up a potential confidenceless PM.

It's 2019 FFS, and we are all having to factor in what an unelected Monarch whose powers derive from an accident of birth may have to do in the face of political chaos.

No wonder I'm still struggling to use email with a telephone-hugging public. I don't thing England or Wales are seriously ready for the 21st century.

[yolofish]

Thank you Red for new fred. Dont envy you house move AND IKEA on a hot day! here is a hot Lab to cheer people up:

[BigChocFrenzy]

As predicted, yet another one leaves the sinking ship for a better job:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7196407/Brexit-negotiator-Olly-Robbins-jumps-hes-pushed-ahead-expected-Johnson-premiership.html

Controversial < scapegoat > civil servant Olly Robbins has resigned as Britain's chief Brexitt* negotiator ahead of an expected Boris Johnsonn* premiership,

The Mail on Sunday can reveal.

He is to leave Government before the country's new Prime Minister takes power next month for a lucrative job in the City.

[IrenetheQuaint]

Hope the move hasn't been too hideous, Red.

Good on Olly Robbins for getting a big City job. He did exactly what May asked of him and has been monstered by the right wing press ever since. It's disgraceful.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Even before the FTPA, it has always been the case that
a PM can only take office . and keep office - if he/ she can command a majority in the HoC

JC will call a VoNC as soon as the new Tory leader is announced

We don't know how many Remainer / Soft Brexit Tory MPs would actually vote with Labour,
or how many Labour Leaver MPs would vote to support a Tory govt

It might be zero at this stage, since this would indeed require under normal rules - on both sides - removal of the Party Whip and expulsion from the party

The Tory rebels might wait until October when No Deal looks inevitable, before trying to bring down their own govt

If the VoNC succeeds, it would indeed be extraordinary for anyone to be able to form anew govt within 14 days

The most likely event in that case is a GE - and probably another hung Parliament,
but hopefully not one in which the DUP holds the balance of power,

howabout is perfectly correct:
No Deal remains the automatic default at 11pm on 31 October unless

either the new PM Revokes
or requests a further Extension of A50

or returns the WA to the HoC and it is passed

[BigChocFrenzy]

That's a very handsome shiny Lab, Yolo to join the lovely Westministender cats & kits

[BigChocFrenzy]

and of course, if a new PM requests extension, we would have to rely on the kindness of our EU friends,
to rescue a UK, mired in political deadlock and chaos, which would be hopelessly ill-equipped to handle a No Deal Brexit in that state

[Peregrina]

PMK

[1tisILeClerc]

Reading the comments on the DM 'article' about Olly Robbins makes me depressed to be British.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Oh and until a new PM commands a majority, T May stays as PM
So she is the one with the Revoke / Extension options

[Oakenbeach]

The Tory rebels might wait until October when No Deal looks inevitable, before trying to bring down their own govt

I think it would be really poor tactics to vote down BJ before he even starts.... He’ll still be in a honeymoon period and will still be able to peddle this nonsense about a no-deal Brexit being a million-to-one bet if only he’d be given to re-negotiate. Far, far better to wait until late September when all possibilities have been exhausted. I don’t think Tories would support a VONC before then anyway.

[Oakenbeach]

Interesting polling....

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-latest-labour-liberal-democrats-general-election-jeremy-corbyn-referendum-poll-yougov-a8980191.html%

Consistent with my thinking of how it would naturally play out as Remainers who usually support Labour have to face the reality that Corbyn led Government wouldn’t be on their side. It also reduces the concern that Tory MPs would necessarily be letting Corbyn in if they support a VONC.... Indeed, I think there’s a far, far bigger chance of Corbyn forming the next Government in the next couple of years if they don’t support a VONC all facilitate a no-deal Brexit!

[Peregrina]

I wish that TM would have the guts to say "S*d you lot. I am revoking." If they want to know why, it's because they didn't support her.

[Oakenbeach]

or how many Labour Leaver MPs would vote to support a Tory govt

Very few if any imo..... Even the Lexiter Len McCluskey believes a no-deal would be disastrous and would never support it (see recent interview), and even those that would countenance it would be effectively giving a green-light to a BJ-led Government to manage the country in the aftermath, potentially til 2022!

I’m not sure there are any Labour Brexit Spartans who are that fixated on the issue. I’m not even sure the likes of Francois and Baker would vote with Labour if the boot were on the other foot (ie in the hypothetical scenario of Labour advocating no-deal and the Tories were looking to bring them down in a VONC).

[DGRossetti]

a PM can only take office . and keep office - if he/ she can command a majority in the HoC

In legal circles, I have seen a massive argument erupt over "majority" (which isn't mentioned anywhere) and "confidence" (which is explicitly mentioned everywhere).

Bearing in mind the English legal system works with "everyday meanings" of words unless they are specifically defined by statute.

So much of the UKs "constitution" is markedly undefined by statute.

[BigChocFrenzy]

A minority govt is possible with tacit agreement of other parties to abstain and let them govern within strict limits,
i.e. in effect commanding a majority, just a very unrobust one

[BigChocFrenzy]

This Inst of Govt article was from 2015, but very interesting analysis of what happens re confidence / NC votes.

Whether a PM has the "confidence" of the HoC is also about politics, strength in the country, confidence within the party as a whole,
not just numbers of MPs

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/votes-confidence-queen’s-speech-and-fixed-term-parliaments-act

A defeat on an explicitly worded vote of confidence, and the failure to achieve a second vote of confidence within 14 days, is one of only two ways in which an early election can be called.

Confusion exists about what effect this has on other worded votes of confidence or critical votes such as the Queen’s Speech or a budget.

Certainly they don’t trigger the 14-day period – the Act is clear on this – but ought a government resign if it loses any of them?

In practical terms this is about whether a government ...... should resign if it fails to carry a Queen’s Speech,
or insist that without a formal FTPA worded vote of confidence that it will continue.

Or, because the Act does not require resignation, could a government defeated on one FTPA vote of confidence
stay on through the second vote of confidence and get a second election instead of passing power to its opponents?

Both questions are matters that are more about what will look legitimate, fair and politically viable, rather than a question of legal interpretation.

They go to the heart of past convention of when and why governments resigned when they lost.