No-deal Brexit would have far reaching change on island of Ireland, warns Govt
Updated / Tuesday, 9 Jul 2019 17:44
By Mícheál Lehane
Political Correspondent
A no-deal Brexit would result in a far reaching change on the island of Ireland, the Government has warned in its latest contingency action plan.
It says north-south trade would be particularly affected and it could no longer be as frictionless as it is today.
The impact of tariffs, customs and associated checks would involve additional costs and disruption for businesses, the report states.
Without the Withdrawal Agreement and the backstop there are no easy answers but work is under way to minimise these consequences of no-deal but any arrangements would be sub-optimal, the document says.
Engagement between Ireland and the European Commission is continuing in an effort to deliver the shared twin objectives of avoiding a hard border and maintaining the integrity of the Single Market and Customs Union.
A no-deal Brexit will have "profound" economic implications for Ireland on "all levels" the Government has warned in its latest update on preparations for Britain's plans to leave the EU.
It says that it will be impossible for the UK to maintain its current "seamless arrangements" with Europe across justice, security, transport, trade flows and supply chains.
The Goverment's Contingency Action Plan Update acknowledges there is a "high degree of uncertainty" about forecasting the impact on Ireland.
But it adds the impacts in the first year following a no-deal would be "very damaging".
It says small and medium businesses and companies in the regions would suffer "severe negative effects".
It adds the impact of UK import and export exposure for firms could be compounded by currency volatility between the euro and sterling.
It repeats that there would be an expected increase in unemployment of 50-55,000 after the UK leaves.
The Government says that tariffs, checks and controls on UK imports will be disruptive to trade across the Irish Sea.
It also says the UK land bridge (where vehicles travel from Ireland across the UK to get to Europe) would be subject to severe delays. It adds there would be disruption to the all-Ireland economy.
The Government will make commitments to the people of Northern Ireland to ensure that students have access to the Erasmus programme, and Northern Ireland citizens can use the European Health Insurance Cards.
It says a new phase of the Brexit communications will be rolled out which will include a call to action to business operating in exposed sectors to make preparations for a no-deal.
It will also provide additional infrastructure at ports and airports to enhance capacity.
Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney has said that a no-deal Brexit was an "ugly prospect".
Speaking at a press conference at Government Buildings, he said he believed that a hard Brexit will put a great deal of strain on political relationships on the island of Ireland.
He also said that it will also be a "fundamental disruptor" to the all-island economy.
Earlier, the Government described as incorrect media reports that it has accepted the need for checks close to the border with Northern Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
It followed a report by Bloomberg which said that "Ireland is set to acknowledge publicly for the first time the need to set up checks at or around its border with Northern Ireland in a no-deal Brexit scenario, people familiar with the matter said".
A spokesperson Mr Coveney said the Government's approach to achieving the twin objectives of avoiding a hard border and maintaining the EU Single Market was to be published in its plan. However, they said there are no plans for checks close to the border.
There was likely to be a particular focus in the Cabinet meeting on ensuring that small and medium companies have the required European Union registration and identification number (EORI) to trade with the UK if there is a hard Brexit.
More than 40,000 companies still do not have this number.
Cabinet was due to agree that Revenue will now write to each of them and if that is unsuccessful, Revenue Officers will phone each company during July and August.
Earlier, Mr Coveney said Ireland is as prepared as it can be for a no-deal Brexit.
Speaking before the Cabinet meeting, he said the uncertainty in London now means the Government cannot be sure the UK will not crash out of the EU without a deal.
"That is why we regard the threat of a no-deal Brexit as significant," he said.
Mr Coveney said the Government is trying to provide as much certainty as possible, despite what he said was "uncertainty and confusion" in terms of political messaging coming from London.
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The Tánaiste said that since the six-month extension was granted at the end of March, "some people I think had focused so intensively on Brexit that they took their foot off the accelerator and that needs to end now.
"We need to get the country collectively ready for all potential Brexit outcomes."
Mr Coveney was also due to present, what he called a "practical and pragmatic" document, on the readiness of ports in Dublin and Rosslare, and Dublin Airport, saying they are much more comprehensive plans than the emergency management plan put in place for the end of March.
A full update on all contingency plans was also due to be presented to Cabinet.
Mr Coveney said that included in the memos is a plan to boost awareness for people about Brexit over the summer.
He said this is "to get people and businesses back into the frame of mind to think about Brexit, its downsides and its risks" and he urged people to think about how they can respond to this and how the State can help.
Mr Coveney said we need to "face up to the ugly truths" of what a no-deal means, saying it will be a "fundamental disruption to how the all-island economy functions today".
The plans was due to be presented to opposition parties, after it was presented to Cabinet.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said the Government is correct to put a renewed focus on the possibility of a disorderly Brexit and the Government must lead from the front and say that if the UK chooses to crash our of the EU, that decision cannot mean that Ireland takes a step backwards.
Fianna Fáil's Brexit spokesperson Lisa Chambers said there must be a renewed energy and focus at the heart of Government.
She said it is a little incredible to tell citizens that we do not have a plan for checks on food and goods with just over 100 days to go until the 31 October deadline