Westminstenders: Long live liberalism

[RedToothBrush]

Talk of its demise are premature.

(Sorry up to eyeballs this weekend)

Yep, that's the underclass - even more neglected in the USA, but also in the UK

They have a v low voting rate and of course don't contain party donors
Very difficult and expensive to help them

What we are copying from the US is to blame them for their problems - feckless / punishment from God (US) - so we don't feel obliged to help them.

BCF and everyone, did you see the article in Sun Times mag the w/e just gone about how families are living on the Broadwater estate in Tottenham. Absolutely terrible - the housing conditions, the lack of ANYTHING, the dangers on the streets, the headteacher of the outstanding primary saying she dreads the end of term because she knows the children will have nothing all summer. It was so so sad. TBF to the ST, they have started an appeal for money - cant remember details, but eg to take a group of kids swimming, or to provide a painting and play day over the summer.

The way these people are having to live is just terrible, and yet they are blamed for it.

Arguably there are vast numbers of the 'underclass' in the 3 mil extra voters gained by Leave using Cambridge Analytica. I actually feel worst for this group as they thought they were voting for "change" whereas the rest of the Leave voters seem to have been actually happy with the country for the entireity of their lives until they thought were convinced immigrants were coming in too often/began seeing EU as Nazi/decided we should bring back the death penalty and generally have a markedly "i'm alright Jack" attitude.

Canada Is Refusing To Roll Over Its EU Trade Agreement For The UK If There's A No-Deal Brexit

Some more detail re misti's post on Canada trade

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/canada-is-refusing-to-roll-over-its-eu-trade-agreement-for

UK officials are "furious" at Canada's decision,

but it reflects the confusion around trade policy after the failure of Theresa May's Brexit strategy.

The decision not to “roll over” the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) if the UK abandons its withdrawal agreement with Brussels
is a huge blow to Britain's hopes of maintaining continuity in a no-deal Brexit and could severely impact businesses that sell goods to the Canadian market.

It goes against assurances from Conservative ministers who insisted that replicating the UK's existing trading arrangements would be straightforward.

< assurances from other countries may also not hold for No Deal.
Switzerland won't rollover if ND >

Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, promised in 2017 that up to 40 EU trade deals would be replicated by the time Britain left the union.
CETA is one of the biggest it had hoped to have in place.

UK officials are "furious" at Canada's decision,

Why? We could have told them it was a non-starter.

Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky

£95 billion pa hit to the Exchequer under no deal:

Here’s chart in the Nov x-Whitehall analysis showing the impact on public finances of no-deal

• modelled as a change in 15 years time
• assumes no change to migration (a tighter migration policy wd assume to have a bigger hit)

Thanks for the link BCF. It says within it that Switzerland would roll over (one of 11 countries)?

lonelytired The Swiss rollover (Swiss Roll !) is only for the WA and even then only goods, not services:

What have the UK and Switzerland agreed on their trade relationship post-Brexit?__

(references Swiss government information sheet, prepared mainly for Swiss companies)

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-and-swiss-trade-post-brexit/

Essentially, they are partly “rolling over” to the UK the present Swiss-EU trade relationship.

The roll-over is only “full”

• and only for goods, since services are not included at all -

during the transition in the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement
when the EU asks the other free-trade-agreement countries to treat the UK as if it were an EU member.

Otherwise, a number of significant parts of the Swiss-EU agreements are “disapplied”.

As my chart upthread:

Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky

Philip Hammond tells the Commons that a disruptive no deal brexit would hit the exchequer by £90 billion per year.

This figure is from the civil service cross Whitehall analysis - and is not mentioned once by leadership contenders

I think I mentioned a thread or so back that all most of these fabulous "deals" that Fox has signed to great fanfare only apply if we leave with a deal as they were simple "roll-overs" of EU trade deals as he doesn't have the time or expertise to do anything else

So if we no-deal Brexit, then no roll-overs and no agreements

Plus, iirc, most, if not all the FTAs that the EU has signed have MFN clauses. So, if by some unlikely miracle the UK manages to negotiate a better deal with any of those countries/regions, then those better deals will apply anyway between the EU and those countries

Thanks - wording in that article is ambiguous on that; makes it sound as though those 11 countries have agreed to trade even if we No Deal, in the context of the rest of the article.

I thought I had read it was 95bn too - I may need sleep!

Philip Hammond is really nailing his colours to the mast these days. I suspect he will spend a while out in the cold under either Johnson or Hunt but may return in a much stronger position once the dust settles.

Wrt Canada/CETA - there hasn't been much smug talk of the Commonwealth and future trade agreements for quite a while now.

Quite impressed by the frankness of Beth Rigby's Sky News opinion:-

Just about to post that too! :)

The press tone does appear to be shifting a touch recently. Interesting.

Re media shift- Murdoch’s not happy Gove didn’t get it. Murdoch’s backing is the reason no-one spoke over Gove at the debate- no-one wants the attack dogs after ‘em.

It's all irrelevant anyway.
Rich tory membership simply dont care about plunging the uk into recession or worse.
The only upside is the tories will be finished.
The whole "len mccluskey looking into an open goal" is true but previous labour voters like me will not forget nor forgive that the so called opposition have enabled all of this.

Re media shift- Murdoch’s not happy Gove didn’t get it

Nice to read some good news for a change. That's put a day-long smile on my face.

The only upside is the tories will be finished.

I hope so, and I hope they can take the Brexit party with them. Although Farage getting bored and clearing out would do that too.

Farage will leave once his Brexit unicorn lies are seen for what they are...he's on record saying that.

The human scrotum that is Murdoch being unhappy makes me joyful:)

So why did Murdoch want Gove? I thought Trump was pro-Fox (is that not still Murdoch-led?). Just wondering if Gove was secretly after closer US ties - but he seemed to be anti that in his role as Env Sec...at least on the surface.

Thought BJ's sugar tax announcement was a direct wink to his mates at the sugar factory here in UK. Not exactly a vote winner for general public because I guess he can't propose he will reverse austerity measures without losing core Tory support. This way has minimal impact on the 'plebs' yet helps his mate out on tax. Rather thinly veiled and rather adroitly countered by the top news story that obesity causes as many deaths as cancer .

*as many deaths by cancer as smoking

Edit button required!

The Fox/Murdoch-Trump alliance is slipping lately. I think the Gove snub was part of the decline.

Trump unhappy with Fox Democratic coverage

Why Trump is feuding with Fox News

Another part of it is that Democratic presidential candidates threatened to refuse to talk to Fox in upcoming race/campaign due to Fox’s closeness to Trump. It would be difficult to even pretend to have real coverage of the 2020 Presidential election if the Democrats boycotted, so Fox has softened and Trump doesn’t like it.

Also, Fox was really instrumental in Trump’s success. People with massive egos tend not to like thinking their success is down to anything but themselves.

And Murdoch is richer than Trump. Not a whole magnitude richer like Buffett or Gates or Zuckerberg. But a bit richer, and his money’s definitely a bit more solid. That kind of situation can lead to clash of egos/pissing contest quite easily.