Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

Looks like there may as well be a mirror between Boris and Corbyn ...

They compared the leader’s office to Soviet Russia and said that Mr Corbyn’s aides wanted to “purge the party of non-believers”.

No, quite. SW Herts voted Remain so I’m not quite sure what they thought would happen.

The Martin Kettle article in the Guardian that Songs posted about the Union is still very English-centric

It doesn't explain why the Union is so precious

Plus, 2 "minorities" added together can add up to a majority. I note he doesn't quote any recent polls - like the one that said that if BJ became leader, a majority of those in Scotland would support independence.

And this comment and the increasingly confrontational modern one between Britain and Scotlandd^. is guaranteed to irritate. In the case the writer hadn't noticed, Scotland is a constituent part of Britain (which is a geographical entity) - and will remain so even after it becomes independent

On the Corbyn story, There is a real worry that the Labour leader isn’t up to the job physically or mentally but is being propped up by those around him. There’s growing concern that he’s too frail and is losing his memory. ......

.....Doesn't stop Trump in a similar questionable health situation

Corbyn has always been dim and has ever since elected leader given the impression of being well past hs se-by date.

They should have left him on the shelf and chosen someone else with a pulse

I'm reminded of the USSR, in the late 1970s-early 1980s, when the obviously ailing Leonid Brezhnev was brought out for show, but others behind the scenes were actually running the USSR

Satirical shows had him as a corpse propped up and animated with strings to wave at the Red Square military parades

And then the USSR collapsed. Question, is a gerontocracy a symptom or a cause of an ailing political system?

@prettybird

I agree obviously that the article i shared is very English centric, no doubt about that, but I also think it's aimed at a particular English audience that may profess attachment to the Union yet thoroughly jeopardizes it at the moment. I should have put it into context before sharing.
(At least that's how I interpreted it).

On The Times shouting campaign against Corbyn:

Andrew Neil:
"OK. Will you tell these civil servants it’s not their call? Or should I?"

Owen Jones:
"Two things here. One, there’s not a single person close to Corbyn who has expressed a single concern about his health. Two, this suggests that the senior civil service as claimed is not in fact impartial and is actively attempting to stop a left wing government coming to power."

Douglas Carswell:
"I’d rather have my country run by democratically elected Jeremy Corbyn than the smug, self regarding, incompetent Whitehall officials that briefed this to the Times. Get these vile Sir Humphry’s out!"

Not often these 3 are on the same page which ought to say something.

Oh and spot on from Neil Harding:

"Capitalism needs socialism to function properly.

Think about the most basic transactions- they require goodwill & trust-that is socialism. There is no financial reward to goodwill. Yet it is impossible to get anything done without some level of it."

howabout

Regarding, Andrew Neil’s and Douglas Carswell’s comments :-

My guess is that they both desperately want Brexit to happen. If Corbyn leads Labour he will present some garbled nonsense of a Brexit policy - and he’ll lose any GE. If Labour gets rid of Corbyn and the party is lead by a sane Remainer, then Labour will win and Brexit gets cancelled.

That’s my guess as to why Neil and Carswell want Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party.

Tory Fibs (twitter handle):
"Jeremy Corbyn is too frail to be Prime Minister. I know this to be true because a Rupert Murdoch paper told me on its front page & they would never lie."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-45750918/labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-scales-a-climbing-wall

Scaling climbing walls is not easy. My kids still treasure the photo they have of me demonstrating in my dotage. Last time I went tree climbing at the park they said they wouldn't rescue me if I got stuck

Interesting take Therewillbeadequatefood

and Tories need Corbyn, so they can stay in power

He's the leftwing bogeyman they keep talking up to scare away the centrist and even traditional Labour voters

The Tories don't talk so much about their own policies, just "vote for us or ---- Corbyn .... "
Works even on MN, which is much more leftwing even now, than other voters

Even scares of some potential LDems - "I'd vote for them, but don't want to risk letting in Corbyn"

Ozgur Zeren
@ozgurzeren
·
12h
Replying to
@ToryFibs
and
@julesbrown12
Tomorrow's headlines: "Jeremy Corbyn too reckless to become Prime Minister

There's been a concerted effort to get rid of Corbyn from the day he was elected leader so the health story is just part of this effort.

Oh and even arch centrist Dan Hodges:

"I bow to no-one in my dislike of Jeremy Corbyn’s politics. But the comments the Times are reporting are a disgrace. It’s not for civil servants to decide who is and isn’t too “frail” to be Prime Minister."

I don't understand which senior civil servants this article is talking about. As I understand it (but happy to be corrected) the civil service has very little to do with opposition parties except during the run-up to a general election, when they work together to make initial plans for a possible change of government.

Where do these SCS who are so worried about Corbyn work? In the Cabinet Office? What directorate? What are their jobs??

There's good reason for Labour to have kept trying to ditch Corbyn
Whatever his fans think, he's the gift that keeps giving to the Tories

This is probably the most incompetent chaotic govt since the UK was formed
The Official Opposition should have been 20, 30 % ahead for many months - Blair managed that against a far less disastrous Major govt
A big reason they are not streets ahead is Corbyn

No wonder so many Tories keep defending him - and actually joined Labour to vote for him:
he is their saviour, their best chance of keeping their seats and all the perks & power that brings

Shame about the country ...

I agree it's unusual for the civil service to leak like this
but they have been so politicised since the ref

BJ is reportedly planning a purge of the civil service, copying Trump

So civil servants will either be leaving, like the 2 top Brexit ones - DexEU and NI border - or sucking up to show they are the "right sort" who should be promoted

How many Tories joined Labour to vote for Corbyn ?

BJ is reportedly planning a purge of the civil service, copying Trump

How possible is that ? Surely politicians don't get a direct say in internal civil service procedures ? Isn't there supposed to be separation of powers ? Or have the civil service made themselves vulnerable to such antics by their previous lapses in impartiality ? The old GBS joke about "arguing about the price" springs to mind ...

Re Corbyn’s mental capacity-this reminds me of my exH. His cognitive abilities notably declined in his 60s. As wife I defo noticed, although he could “get it together” publicly. His physical fitness was still very good, did long distance cycling, etc. I could believe this about JC, still running, cycling, working allotment, but mental capacities in an obvious downward spiral.
I am not a great fan of elderly men as heads of state, for this & many other reasons (dated world view, etc).
My ultimate solution: let no one over the age of 40 vote!

DG If reports are true, then BJ would be forcing out, moving elsewhere, or not promoting senior civil servants,

• no mass redundancies

We've already seen this:

e.g. Ivan Rogers was forced out for politely informing the govt - in private briefings only - that their unicron couldn't fly.
He was the most capable UK civil servant at dealing with Brussels, who even keeps saying that Brexit must be done because of the ref result.

Some v young civil servants promoted to senior positions within DexEU and Fox's Trade dept because they are positivie about Brexit
e.g. that DexEU head who is quitting now - because he's got the CV he wanted
He looks like a 6th-former but is 33, must have been about 30 when appointed, amazingly young for a civil service appointee at that senior level