Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

{“Not only has our Government awarded our passport production to a French-owned company, but the work has now been outsourced from France to a Polish firm.}

From the Chronicle article.
I wonder if there might be something to learn about things that are being said, like being part of an international trading bloc perhaps.
I suppose the French/Dutch might be a bit miffed that their work is being outsourced to Poland. Of course if the UK was staying in the EU De La Rue could also have outsourced to Poland too.

Speaking of liberals Putin says liberalism is dead apparently. I think a lot of bots are on MN and the more people see opinions spouted that catch their eye, the more they become ingrained. It's like that study that says we share shocking/bad news more than good. It is also mirrored in the media atm; the more people give air time and publicity to BXP the more others think they are popular. It's why Farage took over those racist sites on fb to look as though they had more supporters.

If the Tories think that it is a miscalculation. Since the Iraq war there has been a massive shift in public sentiment. Part of the rise in nationalism has been a feeling that governments should be more concerned about their own citizens than about foreign policy.

Entirely agree. The tide of popular opinion has turned against military intervention (particularly as they elicit a terrorist backlash here.) If they think it will be their Thatcher-Falklands moment it’s much more likely to be their Blair-Iraq.

One problem with the UK mentality is that the UK (apart from the Channel Islands) has not been 'occupied' through war for many centuries.
It is one thing sending planes and ships to bomb the shit out of 'far away' places, even with losses, but completely different to having informants on every street who can have you executed just because you speak out of turn.

The centre and left would be massively against another irresponsible war,
especially one that has been pushed by that bloodthirsty US psychopath John Bolton

BUT
The Tories only need the hard right PLUS all those Tories and even centrists who have been successfully made terrified of Corbyn
Especially if we are now in a 3 or 4 party system, where FPTP hands a working majority for an even lower % than before

(imo, JC is very dim, lazy and disgracefully indiferent to anti-semitism and misogyny in Labour,
but he's nowhere near as bad as proxy rule by Bolton, Bannon and associated US billionaires)

Powerful men love starting wars. I think it's basically a power / status thing. You're not a real king until you've engaged in warfare. I think that's behind Trump's stance on Iran. And it was behind Blair with Iraq and Cameron with Libya. B Johnson is probably already in discussions with Trump's people.

It is probable there won't be anyting like the Falklands factor to boost Tory support

BUT
people who still believe in "they need us more ..." may well believe a war would at least get them over the next few months
AND
also distract after a No Deal Brexit

Also, what else can they try, without a humiliating U-turn on Brexit that would tear apart the Tories ?

These are desperate and totally unscrupulous people, hence at their most dangerous atm

I think its because they have micro penises

Iraq really was a war for oil and loot and "glory"
Iran would be even more so

Shameful and also dangerous if the Uk does not oppose this war

Reports say France & Germany are trying desperately behind the scenes, but Bolton is all-powerful atm

Maybe the plan is to get into war and introduce rationing - blitz spirit was requested after all!

Agree re mirco penises. I imagine they would choose one of those loud farty cars with tinted windows given half the chance too.

Who'd be a soldier ? Here's what our Georgian forebears might have said ...

It's never a bad time to hear Maddie Priors voice

Iraq really was a war for oil and loot and "glory"

I think it was a war to teach Iraq to never abandon the dollar again.

I think it was a war to teach Iraq to never abandon the dollar again.

Well in fact I think the whole anti EU campaign generally is an attack on the Euro which might be seen as getting too big for its boots...

Please remind me how the people of Gateshead voted in the Referendum. It might not have been Leave because they are over the water from Newcastle, which I think voted Remain.

What annoys me about Leavers and the redundancies now being announced is that they get annoyed with people who voted Remain, not charlatans like Farage, Johnson, Davis who promised them the earth. Why aren't they getting angry with them?

The US during the Cold War encouraged the EEC / EC /EU to integrate more, to have a stronger bloc as their main ally
and to avoid internal European clashes

However, once the USSR collapsed and Russia became a fascist kleptocracy, the US no longer needed a strong EU

The US then regarded the EU as a powerful economic competitor,
that had to be pulled apart into the indivudual counries again, which the US could individually dominate crush in trade negotiations

imo, The whole anti-EU movement only really took off once the US and the US media barons & big business started quietly building it up, very professionally,
using the same tactics their military & intelligence services previously used in regions like South America and the Middle East

Any chance that having a little was could mean BJ saying "we can't leave the EU whilst we're in the midst of a war fwarr fwarr fwarr", as an excuse for not leaving.

Straws, clutching...

Any chance that having a little was could mean BJ saying "we can't leave the EU whilst we're in the midst of a war fwarr fwarr fwarr", as an excuse for not leaving.

Leaving the EU with no deal will probably seriously - if not critically - impact on the UKs military capabilities. But once again, we all know that's project fear ...

Well Williamson was all for sending an aircraft carrier to 'sort out' the Chinese. A bit like sending a small mouse into a room with 15 very hungry cats.

Leaving the EU with no deal will probably seriously - if not critically - impact on the UKs military capabilities. But once again, we all know that's project fear ...

This is one of the things which makes me laugh about the Leavers
"We don't want an EU Army". If we had an EU Army, the UK and the French would be vying for Leadership, and would definitely be the Senior partners in the Army.

Well Williamson was all for sending an aircraft carrier to 'sort out' the Chinese

Yes, but he's a moron, so can be discounted. I'd be amazed if his local takewaways take orders from him.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/uk%E2%80%93eu-defence-and-security-cooperation

www.iiss.org/publications/survival/2018/survival-global-politics-and-strategy-december2018january2019/606-03-heisbourg-cm

{Yes, but he's a moron, so can be discounted.}

That is as maybe, but the Chinese Navy seeing a UK warship arriving and 'aggressive' noises coming from Westminster, would be rather tempted to put a hole in it.

Having had Boris as Foreign Secretary would make it fair game in itself.
Then analyse the rest of the UK cabinet.

I'm glad I'll be working out of the country for a couple of weeks then on hols for another couple of weeks I'm so glad I'll be away for the rest of those pathetic hustings (most of it in France by the way). I need a break from this miserable and pathetic landscape. I expected BJ to be offensive but things keep getting worse and worse and it's really hard to be here right now. That turd comment somehow really made me angry, more than usual. The sheer vulgary of it is demeaning FOR US and it makes US look shit. Uneducated, thick and all the rest of the stereotypes leavers are so desperate to avoid. Fuck em, fuck anyone who gets behind a Lidl version of Trump.

"he's a moron, so can be discounted"

No, unfortunately, just because someone is moronic, doesn't prevent them becoming a minister - in fact, looks like a prerequisite atm -
and just because an action is moronic doesn't mean a govt minister can't do it

The last 3 years have demonstrated that there are no depths of idiocy to which the current Tory party can't sink

A delusional Tory Defence Minister - or one who puts career and party before the safety of UK forces -
could easily send a totally inadeqate force into danger

Normally, the EU would work to persuade the UK govt against such idiocy and the US would just forbid it,
but
the Uk is not listening to the EU
and
the US govt is even more moronic than ours - Bolton would cheer on any military action against those he deems enemies,
especially if that might give him the excuse of rescuing / avenging slaughtered or imprisoned British personell

Even against a much lesser opponent than China, the RN probably can't release ehough other warships to adequately protect a carrier
and the carrier may not have planes, or sufficiently tested systems to fly them and sufficiently trained pilots.

Inadequate protection hasn't stopped risky capital ship deployment in the past,
e.g. the sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse, although that risk wasn't so unreasonable given the urgent situation at the time

Very interesting article. About externalities, consequences for those who are left dealing with the effects of something played out by others. In a way, people in NI will always be vulnerable to externalities in the UK system. There are simply more people even in London. The leave vote in England and Wales overwhelmingly drowned out the wishes of the majority of people in NI. Even if the people who don't want a hard border are those of NI who will be living on or near the border. Heck, even the majority in NI.

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/brexternalities-article-50-and-the-uks-grossly-irresponsible-attempt-to-export-its-own-problems