Westministenders: The start of our fourth year of fun

[RedToothBrush]

Do you remember when politics was boring?

This week we have had a Tory MP recalled, a Tory MP caught on film appearing to assault a protester and our likely Tory prime minister caught on tape having a serious row with his girlfriend which resulted in the police being called.

This is a government with a majority of 3 (with the DUP).

There are apparently 100 MPs who are not on board with no deal, but its not clear how far they will go to try and stop this. We do have Dominic Grieve stating that if Johnson is elected leader he will not become PM as he will not have the confidence of the house and can not go to the Queen to say he has. He has recently said he would resign the Tory Whip if necessary, which he has not previously said. The government has only to lose 2 more MPs for it to lose its majority...

It is important to remember that until Johnson goes to the Queen, May remains PM and retains the powers of the office. Could he become leader but not PM?

This crisis would most likely lead to a GE. The only real question would be over the timing over this. Would it be immediate or strung out over the summer? At this point this does look highly likely before October.

If the Tory moderates get their way, then the ERG hardliners hit back and do the same thing even with the looming threat of the Brexit Party or a Remain surge.

Its hard to see how we AVOID Brenda from Bristol being tracked down for a rent-a-quote. And there is a strong possibility of another Tory Leadership Election before the year is out, under several scenarios.

Meanwhile the EU Brexit Team has largely broken up, with most of its lead players having new personal priorities with internal EU elections. Our biggest ally in Tusk will no longer be there to protect us, so EU politics post 31st October could look quite different, and less favourable, to the UK.

Whilst the talk around parliament from seems to indicate that the UK will look for another extension (and this includes from Camp Johnson), this is very inward looking. At some point there needs to be a wakeup call that the EU want us out, and will be prepared to force us to no deal whether we like it or not.

Equally the idea that we could have a PV is also dependant now on EU good will, as we've faffed about for so long with Tory Brats. And relies on the EU still being keen on another referendum. Will this come to a head with the EU saying no and shattering the hopes of the other side of the house?

At this point, what happens with the Withdrawal Agreement? The idea that the withdrawal agreement is dead isn't quite as clear cut as you might think. If its a choice in parliament on the very last day of No Deal v the Withdrawal Agreement what will they do? Will they recognise the moment? Certainly I think there are a few opposition MPs who HAVE started to notice this is a possibility this time around. Its still largely unspoken though. No one wants to acknowledge political reality.

We still haven't hit the wall of reality. We avoided in March. But its still there and no going away.

I think there are two things we can count on over the next few weeks; more outrage and chaos and a slow dawning of the realisation that May was dreadful, but it really could be worse.

@DGRossetti

It's important not to tar all pensioners with the same brush, don't you think?

DF was a WW2 RAF navigator - would have been utterly horrified by what is happening
DM , younger and a child during the war and still alive feels the same.

It's generally people who grew up after that who appear to be the influential Brexiters - those watching war films and reading comics and modelling spitfires *and imbibing the propaganda of the time - there to make post war austerity bearable - who have been the main and successful target demographic for the senseless anti EU propaganda peddled by the right wing press.

• not making buses out of wine boxes Boris...

Hoping to be there at half term too! :)

Not all of us Grinchly - some of us baby boom people are just as horrified as the ones who were alive in WW2.

Oh I know @Peregrina , and many of my friends are in their 70s and are equally horrified.
But that's my self selected 'social circle' ( hate that epithet)

Ooh I see bold / asterisk mess up.

So...
Chris Williamson has been re- suspended from labour??
Wtaf!?
And Ken Clarke is retiring too.

The Greens are stepping aside in the Brecon and Radnorshire bye election. I believe PC are considering doing the same.

Studying what Putin said last night;
he's much cleverer than Trump and his hate speech is coherent and clear:

"That migrants can kill, plunder and rape with impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected"

James Melville@JamesMelville

Which EU country has the largest number of citizens living abroad?
(abroad = any country in the world)

1. UK = 4.9 million
2. Poland = 4.4 million
3. Germany = 4 million
4. Romania = 3.4 million
5. Italy = 2.9 million

Bloody British ‘expats’, going over there...

Did (Hunt supporter and former FO minister) Alec Duncan leak this previously unknown BJ gaffe ?

It would probably help BJ in the members vote - so he may even have leaked it himself ! -
but it will only add to the very low opinion the EU have of him

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/28/calling-french-turds-will-just-make-tory-members-love-boris/

As Foreign Secretary, he was reportedly recorded by a BBC camera crew calling the French "turds" for their behaviour
....
Polling by YouGov this February found that 84 per cent of Leave voters felt the EU had been “harsh” on the British, with 83 per cent of Tory voters feeling the same.
< Did BJ and other Leavers expect the EU just to roll over ?..... and they call the Millennials "snowflakes" >

As Foreign Secretary, he was reportedly recorded by a BBC camera crew calling the French "turds" for their behaviour

I watched that BBC documentary and marvelled at how Johnson could be any more of an utter incompetent arse if he tried. The facial expression of his long standing diplomat female colleague spoke volumes.

The creepy David Gauke deselection attempt.

twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1144720948765089792

Excellent article about the risk to the union:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/26/boris-johnson-english-brexit-union-scotland-northern-ireland

What are the Conservatives proposing to 'conserve'? Nothing.

The minority who want this to happen are rubbing their hands at the prospect. The separate minority who say they don’t care if it happens seem beyond reasoned debate at present. But the majority who don’t want it to happen aren’t being much more attentive either.

Not quite sure what that "majority" means ?

Also, what business is it of an Englishman, if a Scotsman wants Scotland to be independent ? (Also Northern Ireland and Wales).

Or is Scotland no longer a country, but an English shire ?

From the Guardian opinion , a Civil Servant's observations on Brexit and an unsettling vision of Boris in fishnets.
{The upside of this absurd uncertainty is that if he becomes prime minister, there’s plenty of time for Johnson – he’s an entertainer first and foremost – to dramatically reverse his position, grab the headlines and unite parliament’s remainers by cynically recording a charity cover of All I Want For Christmas is EU – dressed in full Bullingdon top hat, tails and fishnets. Sadly, a bumbling cameo appearance in a heartwarming Waitrose Christmas ad trailing its exciting new line of chlorinated turkeys is more likely.

I probably just need to man up, eh? Think positive! Spirit of the Dambusters! After all, Brexit won’t last forever.

So you heard it here first. After we’ve sorted Brexit, we must prepare the UK for a glorious, starlit future far outside the stifling oppression of the solar system. Don’t tell us the technology doesn’t exist, empire haters! British ingenuity will rise to the challenge by developing a new generation of splendidly phallic BAE rockets running on fuel heroically distilled from a patented combination of Pimm’s and chutzpah. Let Trump have his piddling Space Force – I’m ready for Project Yellowrocket.}

The TImes is reporting ‘civil servants’ are concerned about Corbyn’s health.

Senior civil servants have become increasingly concerned about Jeremy Corbyn’s health and warned that he may be forced to stand down as Labour leader because he is not up to the job “physically or mentally”.

The future of Mr Corbyn, 70, was openly discussed at an event attended by mandarins this month amid suggestions that he has become “too frail and is losing his memory”.

They say they are increasingly worried about the prospect of him becoming prime minister because he is being “propped up” by his advisers and lacks a firm grasp of both foreign affairs and the domestic agenda.

One senior civil servant said: “When does someone say [he] is too ill to carry on as leader of the Labour Party let alone prime minister? There must be senior people in the party who know that he is not functioning on all cylinders.”

Another said: “There is a real worry that the Labour leader isn’t up to the job physically or mentally but is being propped up by those around him. There’s growing concern that he’s too frail and is losing his memory. He’s not in charge of his own party.”

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-corbyn-too-frail-to-be-pm-fears-civil-service-9398m903t

Looks as if there’s a concerted effort to get rid of Corbyn.

David Gauke survives 123:61

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-48805045

Perhaps the paper tiger of extreme Brexiteers is slowly being crumpled ?

I've got a theory about replacing Corbyn.

Basically the effect of mobile devices, 40 character messages, reality tv and X factor type voting have dumbed us down to such an extent we have very fickle voting habits.

A new X factor contender/ leader of the opposition will have a brief ascent or honeymoon period when they are the panacea adored by everyone. This period will only last about 10 weeks.

Therefore Corbyn should only be replaced when a GE is imminent. Otherwise Labour will peak too soon. The honeymoon period has to coincide with a GE.

Eg If the X factor voting period were 6 months the initial bookies favourite would lose their attraction in that time. The timing is critical. Now is too soon.

Perhaps the paper tiger of extreme Brexiteers is slowly being crumpled ?

I don’t know, Hertfordshire = SE thus quite Remainy.

Looks as if there’s a concerted effort to get rid of Corbyn

At long last.

I've got a theory about replacing Corbyn

I think you might be into something lonely

I certainly think Corbyn should stay as leader until after new have a new PM.

My theory about replacing Corbyn is the sooner the better!

That article I linked above is quite grim -

Times reporters spoke to dozens of Labour figures including members of the shadow cabinet, finding a culture of bullying and intimidation within the leader’s office. A former cabinet minister told of a “moral malaise at the top”. Another leading figure said that Mr Corbyn’s most senior aides acted with a mixture of arrogance and insularity.

They compared the leader’s office to Soviet Russia and said that Mr Corbyn’s aides wanted to “purge the party of non-believers”. Another Labour source said: “Jeremy is just a puppet, he can barely hold his head up. He is being manipulated and controlled.”

One ex-official called Karie Murphy, Mr Corbyn’s chief of staff, a bully and a “shouter and a screamer”, with a recent visitor to the leader’s office saying that she had jabbed him in the chest.

Eight former officials have signed gagging orders known as non-disclosure agreements that stop them talking about working for Labour.

I don’t know, Hertfordshire = SE thus quite Remainy.

Not very bright of Leave.EU to target it then ? Hopefully the decisiveness of the result (they couldn't even manage 52% ) will "encourager les autres" to stand up to these creeps elsewhere ?

At the end of the day, it's when people don't get involved in politics that extremists prosper. The example of the left-wing leadership of 1970s unions being an example I can remember.

That basically indicates that what it looks like is going on from the outside is indeed what is going inside.

The sooner Corbyn goes, and the stranglehold of his advisors on the top of the party ends, the better.