Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

Didn’t one of the Tory Party candidates moot the idea of a vote in NI on the backstop issue as a way of circumnavigating the DUP ?

I could well have imagined it I have heard and read so much stuff my head spins at times.

However, there is still a (very small) chance we won't No Deal, but that instead the govt accepts the HoC is logjammed
and calls a PV to find the way out

The EU would give an extension for that

Otherwise, maybe a GE with extension.
We'd probably have another hung Parliament - this time where the DUP don't hold the balance of power
and again, parties may go for a PV

No Deal really is the stupidest act of self-harm
as we'll either accept the backstop a few months afterwards anyway, or crash into being Venezuela-on-Thames

basil A few people have suggested that NI vote on the backstop

• they would very likely approve it

(It was also reportedly the proposed solution that most German secondary pupils chose in an exam question on this,
a year or so ago )

math What's really scary is this tweet from the state GOP itself, glorifying that armed militia were beseiging Democrats in the capitol:

Oregon GOP@Oregon_GOP

Heavily armed militia lays siege to Oregon's Capitol as Senate Democrats cower in fear.
< >

Come one, few of us realise that a NO DEAL will bring us endless joy and independence from EU, together with wonderful Trade Deals...immediately I might add. Oh and a reduction in the "wrong immigrants", and a rejuvenated NHS and joy and an increased quality of life for everyone. Street parties galore.

And a return to complete Sovereignty, without Trump deciding on our future, and Putin sniggering in the background either.

GAWD Almighty, what have we done/are we doing.

TatianaLarina Sat 22-Jun-19 17:26:15

What was monumentally stupid was negotiating a WA without consultation and consensus in Parliament on what kind of deal was likely to pass. That united both sides of Brexit against it.

To be fair, there was no way Parliamentary consultation was going to come up with any consensus. There is a cabal that will accept nothing short of crashing out and all they had to do in order to carry the day - absent leadership from Number Ten - was fold their arms and say no.

The real mistake, the absolutely gobsmacking mistake, was Theresa May's glaring failure to provide sensible leadership that would have caused those not willing to crash out to work with her. Pandering to the extreme Brexiteers guaranteed gridlock because nobody in Labour or in moderate Tory circles could trust her, or even figure out what direction she was heading in.

If she did not want the UK to crash out then she should have summoned up the courage to stand up to Rees Mogg and the rest of them.

IIRC the WA was essentially accepted by the HoC but the backstop was an issue for some, so it didn't pass and the ERG were likely to kick off with more demands but hadn't at that stage.

Big thank you I thought I might have dreamt it !

Which backstop? An NI only one, or a UK wide one?

I can't see a PV bringing us any clarity. The country is divided completely.

Unless it was a straight ‘Revoke’ or ‘No deal’ vote, I’m inclined to agree.

This needs to be a convincing win. All countries of the UK need to be for Remain and the % needs to be at least 60%. Even then the Leavers will continue to bellyache, but at least we might hear the last of 'The Will Of The People."

It doesn't! It took only a 4% win to commit to complete constitutional change. The idea that the win to reset and stick with the status quo has to, for some reason, be more decisive than that is undemocratic and nonsensical!
A P.V is not there to heal the division in society - no vote can do that. Ever. Even with a massive win one way or the other, those that disagreed would still be angry. A P.V exists purely as a way to tell parliament which direction to take - accept the W.A with the blessing of the majority of the electorate, or revoke with the blessing of the majority of the electorate. No matter how small that majority is. We are currently being held to ransom on a 4% majority - any majority will do.

Healing the divide is what comes after exiting/ not exiting the EU is resolved. That comes from developing domestic policies which build up the UK and make life better and fairer for it's people.

The vote is not being suggested to resolve the deeper, underlying issues - and therefore doesn't require a super majority. It is only a tool to give parliament the authority to act one way or the other. That authority comes from a win - no matter how small. And then they can start sorting the real issues which are making people unhappy.

If a P.V came with the caveat 'we have to get 60% in order to act (in either direction)' then it doesn't solve the problem at all. A narrow win either way and parliament are still stuck in the mire, unable to act. It would just be a waste of time and money.

I'm sensing a faint whiff of reverse ferret, reading the Liam Fox piece on the BBC. With the obvious caveat that no deal leaves him with "no job".

I can't see a PV bringing us any clarity. The country is divided completely

Well, without a PV, then we are in deadlock.... as the last x number of posts show.

A win for leave, means the HoC has vote through the WA, a win for Remain, means the Govt of the day will have to very quickly have a Marshal style plan for the regions of the UK, it is after all, acknowledged that many leave voters were dissatisfied with their lives and the UK govt ignoring them... nothing to do with UK membership of the EU.

It depends on what future trade deal the UK wants
and how much humiiation and backtracking the Tory party is prepared to do - possibly none

If the HoC want to at least have the option of anything but Norway++, i.e. BRINO,
then an NI-only backstop would have to be an option for those other deals

This whole Brexit drama would be impossible to justify to ordinary supporters,
if at the end we just end up with BRINO - little change except losing our votes

It would also rule out (any further) windfall profits which was the whole purpose for several Leave donors and ERG MPs.

DUP were reported months ago as being very worried after meeting BJ and some other ERG MPs:
the Tories were very focused on trade deals with the US etc

On Westministenders too, there is no consensus on whether the Leave option should be No Deal or the WA

i.e. backstop with transition benefits, or backstop some months later without transition

"Fox reverse ferret"

The WTO penny finally dropped for him some months ago, possibly after some trade experts shoved his head under the toilet until he stopped babbling ERG delusions

His reality check became obvious with this press release, when discussing the UK applying zero tariffs to the EU:
"we would also have to extend it to the rest of the world under WTO rules"

On Westministenders too, there is no consensus on whether the Leave option should be No Deal or the WA

Only because there are some people who think 'lots of people think they want it' is a reason to put it on the ballot paper. No deal is a catch 22. We vote for no deal - Britain can't survive without a deal forever, so it has to work towards a deal - but it can't because we voted for no deal. Any deal reached is a betrayal of the referendum result and the will of the people - even if they all love the deal! They voted for no deal. Putting no deal on a ballot is actually worse than just crashing out by accident. The accidental no deal does not have a mandate prohibiting it from working towards a deal.
Those of us who understand that the government is never obliged to offer an impossible choice to the electorate - no matter how much the electorate want it - can see that even considering putting no deal on the ballot is sheer idiocy and anti democratic.*

*which does not mean that we believe it cannot happen or that the government aren't stupid enough to do it.

On Westministenders too, there is no consensus on whether the Leave option should be No Deal or the WA

I have a horrible feeling it’s got to be no deal vs remain.
Leavers don’t seem to accept a leave that isn’t a no deal leave I’m just hoping most Leavers wake up to reality soon.

Just to point out - three years ago today, people. Three years ago today.

I hear your plea pretzels. And nothing constructive has happened in three years.

These changes I've noticed in my life. Because 3 years is long enough to notice creeping changes.
-Can't get a doctor's appointment for 6 weeks at my GP.
-Had to wait 7 months for an outpatient hospital appt.
-People getting fed up with GP waits and feeling they can abuse the surgery staff for this.
-More homeless people in my area.
-Council switches off night-time streetlights to save money.
-Local schools seeing a haemorrhage of experienced staff; difficulties recruiting new teachers.
-Severe budget cuts in some schools.
-More food banks in my town.
-Lots of shops have closed down in my High Street.
-Price of petrol increased quite a lot.
www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time
-My energy bills have increased.
-A local major industry has quit the area, causing some unemployment.
-The environment! Has anything really effective been done to reduce plastic pollution etc? This is so urgent.

And of course, on top of it all, the increase of toxic relations between people. Increased overt racism, homophobia, and even misogyny. Online abuse and lies. Newspapers printing really biased stuff. MPs behaving poorly. MPs being threatened. And alienating our partners in Europe.

I'm not saying it's all directly/wholly related to Brexit, but the parliamentary deadlock has meant some of this has not been tackled, money has been diverted away from these issues towards funding Brexit and the austerity measures have continued longer than they needed to.

It makes me want to weep.

Leavers don’t seem to accept a leave that isn’t a no deal leave

And we need to stop offering these people a place at the table. people whose world view is counter to reality have nothing to offer the debate and do not need to be listened to.
We have a perfectly legitimate (I won't say good) way to leave the EU. It discharges the mandate of 2016 - delivers far more separation than was ever promised at the time. They can either have or it they can leave it.
What they can't have is no deal for all eternity. Eventually a deal will need to be struck. And what then - a referendum on whether we want that deal? when they were so dead against one now? You see the rabbit hole we fall down.
They can vote on 'no deal for now - working towards a deal later', but they cannot vote for 'no deal forever and ever' - it just isn't feasible. It just isn't going to happen - that's not how the world works. They can no more vote for that than they can vote to repeal gravity. And what is the point in allowing people to vote for 'no deal for now - an unspecified deal at a later date, which at best will be the deal we've already negotiated' - when you can just let them vote on the deal they have already negotiated?

Because you can rest assured - if people vote for no deal and a deal is later struck that no dealers don't like (because there is no cake and unicorns) we will never hear the end of 'betrayal' and 'will of the people.'

Let's just nip it in the bud and give two clearly defined options for people to research and choose between.

hester Nature abhors a vaccum
We have a political vacuum, so it is being filled by all sorts of toxic behaviour

Yep, it's one reason I to some extent keep defending the WA:

if that's trashed by everyone, we could have option No Deal in a PV - and enough fuckwits choosing it.

No Deal after PV is a much more final choice than a PM forcing No Deal through by running down the clock or trickery.
Lying referendum promises would constrain the govt afterwards as much as the lies in 2016 did

On Westministenders too, there is no consensus on whether the Leave option should be No Deal or the WA

I think that’s because it’s a head and heart decision.

In my heart it needs to be no deal to shut the Leavers up as much as is possible.

In my head the WA is the least damage option but it’s still worse than we have now.

Which leads back to WTF are we doing this for?