Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

Isn't there an old adage that you tend to view others as you yourself are ? So if you are a bit of a cunty Tory, you assume everyone else is a cunty Tory and out for themselves ?

Might explain why the Tories are happy to admit that they are scared of Corbyn (as a rule you are only scared of things that can hurt you, not things that can't). Which is a nice admission by the Tories. I think it's fair to say some of Corbyns power derives from that which the Tories (and their lickspittle papers) give him.

There's also the fact that if there were to be a hung parliament after the next GE, the Tories are terrified a resurgent LibDems might go into a Labour-heavy coalition as payback for 2010-2015. On teh basis it's what they would do.

Either way, it's an interesting time to be alive.

Consolation prize for many us despairing individuals is that we are actually living through history right now.

The best UK approach would be to find something to offer Ireland to relax the backstop,
e.g. joint rule, guaranteed 7-yearly referendum

I'm not sure what you mean by this, Bigchoc? If the DUP are against the backstop I think they'd be even more against joint rule!

Just to point out - three years ago today, people. Three years ago today.

I'd ask any leavers out there if - after three years of getting no where, business flight, collapsing pound and still being in the EU - was it fucking worth it? But they don't live in reality and probably think it was. Luckily I don't care what leavers think and have no interest in ever hearing the made up things they like to say. Like climate change deniers, flat earthers and creationist they are simply not worth the effort of listening to.

So, 3 years - no plan, no leader and 100 odd days until we crash out with no trade deals - despite the promises of 'easiest trade deals in history' and 'no one is talking about jeopardising our place in the single market'. A GE which lost the tory party their majority and two other elections which show that tory and labour support has collapsed - and that combined remainer parties get more votes than brexit ones.

Maybe it's time we tried something different?

Maybe it's time we tried something different?

But what though?

From where I’m sitting

• The WA can’t get through parliament
• No deal will fuck everything up so much that no PM will push the button on it
• Any PM who revokes will destroy themselves and their party

So what options are there?

The best UK approach would be to find something to offer Ireland to relax the backstop, e.g. joint rule, guaranteed 7-yearly referendum

Maybe before the referendum, as part of the detailed plans on how we were to leave the EU.

Corbyn himself might be a Marxist, but the last Labour manifesto was fairly standard social democratic stuff, recognising that most of us prefer a mixed economy. Some things are best done by Government or organised bodies like the Health Service and some areas can be left to private enterprise.

Consolation prize for many us despairing individuals is that we are actually living through history right now.

Small consolation. I often think that this is how it must have been for many Germans in the late 20s and early 30s. They didn't like what they saw developing but were hamstrung as to what exactly to do about it.

@Bearbehind

Easy...
a) 2nd referendum
b) Remain win
c) Article 50 revoked

Of course if Leave won a 2nd time when that meant “no-deal”, then I accept we’d be fucked.

Yes Bear the options left are PV or a GE, leading to a PV or a Revoke no doubt, Revoke before any would destroy the Cons so v unlikely.

Like you, i just cannot see BJ or anyone else going for no-deal, it's just Mays failed scare tactics all over again.

I thought the Tories were all for democracy?

they cannot "let Corbyn in" ONLY the electorate can do that by voting Labour.
If Hunt is correct, a Labour govt would mean no brexit, then that is also surely what he ultimately thinks this is now what the uk wants?

....any GE...

oakenbach I really hope that’s right.

Just need to get a PV

It’s surely more likely than any of the 3 things I listed.

I’ve never understood how a GE will help.

Any government would surely be a coalition again so what does it achieve?

The best UK approach would be to find something to offer Ireland to relax the backstop,
e.g. joint rule, guaranteed 7-yearly referendum

That would be like saying to the DUP “ok, don’t worry, I won’t kick you in the goolies, I just slash your throat instead”

I think it would have to be GE then PV. Which means an extension would have to be requested. A PV would take at least 6 months to organise - probably longer. That's assuming there's a consensus on what to ask. No-dealers won't want Remain. Remainers won't want no deal. In theory Remainers would outweigh no-dealers, but that was under the old theory of numbers where 1+1=2. Under the new system, it's hard to say.

I’ve never understood how a GE will help. Any government would surely be a coalition again so what does it achieve?

Because the current Government won’t support a PV.... and a GE gives people the chance to vote in a Government that will. Whether that Government is a coalition is irrelevant (though I imagine a confidence and supply arrangement like the Tories have at the moment with the DUP is more likely - I don’t imagine the LibDems will want a coalition arrangement after last time!)

I’ve never understood how a GE will help.Any government would surely be a coalition again so what does it achieve?

It might start getting into some peoples thick heads that this is the New World Order. The last real majority government will have been Labour 2005, with 2015 seen as an oddity.

Because the current Government won’t support a PV.... and a GE gives people the chance to vote in a Government that will.

But the Tories, Labour and Brexit party don’t support a PV and they aren’t going to get more seats than the LD’s

I reject the idea that the DUP, with 10 MPs, ¼ million voters ajd about 1,000 members be allowed to determine e future of 65 million

They are a minority even in NI, where polls keep showing most voters support the backstop

After No Deal, I hope the crash eventually knocks enough sense into MPs to form a consensus among the main parties,
so that a majority would suck up the backstop - and updated exit bill and expat rights - in order to get trade talks started

Yes, JC might insist on his GE afterwards, but the professionals can start scoping & negotiating with the EU.
while the toddlers run their GE campaigns

I reject the idea that the DUP, with 10 MPs, ¼ million voters ajd about 1,000 members be allowed to determine e future of 65 million

You might not like it but saying you ‘reject’ it somehow implies that changes everything and it doesn’t.

The fact is that without the DUP C&S support the current government does not have a majority.

Tory voters have very different Brexit views to Tory members

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-tory-leadership-party-election-a8969676.html

The survey suggests
the opinions of the 160,000 Conservative members who will choose the new prime minister are increasingly out of kilter with the 11 million voters who backed the party in 2015
– the only election in 27 years when the Tories have won an overall majority in the Commons.

Some 30 per cent of 2015 Tory voters questioned by pollsters Survation said they would like the UK to remain in the EU,
compared to 32 per cent who want no deal
and 36 per cent who back leaving with an agreement with Brussels.

The figures contrast sharply with recent polling suggesting that 83 per cent of current party members would support a no-deal leader.

And while 61 per cent of current members told the earlier YouGov survey they would be ready to accept “significant damage” to the UK economy as the price for Brexit,

more than half (51 per cent) of the 2015 Tory voters said they were not prepared to suffer any financial loss whatsoever as a result of EU withdrawal,

and just 8 per cent said they were willing to take a hit of £1,000 a year or more.

b) Remain win

This needs to be a convincing win. All countries of the UK need to be for Remain and the % needs to be at least 60%. Even then the Leavers will continue to bellyache, but at least we might hear the last of 'The Will Of The People."

bear I posted that JC might push for a GE afterwards

There are 14 days after a NC, so time for the backstop to be approved first,
so civil servants start the negotiations while the GE campaign is ongoing

He might not even force a GE, if the economy has gone over a cliff, which might be the situation we are in, before parties to work together

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48737711
The strange death of democracy in Oregon.
The rural/urban divide in the US is highlighted here.

I suspect this stunt will be replicated elsewhere.

I think the US will see another civil war some time in the next decade.