Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

Conspiracy theory shit is tedious.
You can't say on one hand that we should be afraid of incompetent PM Johnson & then claim he's a puppet of mystery hyper-competent forces. Everyone is winging it & incompetent at some level. The only variable is where is their level of incompetence, where they find their sinecure.

Most events are a series of limited damage screw-ups by mere mortals. Some events have spectacularly more or fewer screwups than usual. Then we can pretend to suddenly discover new heroes and villains.

Fox is not quite the BJ fan one would expect:
as shown earlier by his dept warning online about WTO rules

It took a very long time for him to get a reality check about trade, but it seems to have happened

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

Liam Fox says Boris Johnson should say what happened in his row with Carrie Symonds, for his own sake:

“It’s always easier to give an explanation, then we can discuss the policies” #Marrr^

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Liz Truss suggests Boris Johnson will call Remainer Tory MPs' bluff during a no confidence vote over No Deal.

Tells @JPonpolitics:

"I don’t believe in those circumstances colleagues would bring down a Conservative Government and let in Jeremy Corbyn, a Marxist"

Yep stunned at how many differences ways someone can show you they are a complete arsehole but people will still vote for them.

Yep stunned at how many differences ways someone can show you they are a complete arsehole but people will still vote for them.

Because the ones voting for him are also complete arseholes.

If I were planning a conspiracy about the last person I'd involve would be Johnson who can't even consistently wear a condom.

Convenient patsy and frontman for a conspiracy by others - possibly. But I don't think other regimes such as Putins Russia working nakedly for their own interests really counts as a conspiracy either.

With a new HoC and after GATT A25 & other unicorns have been debunked,
the HoC may vote differently

EU position is that these 3 WA planks - backstop, exit bill, expat rights - are preconditions for starting talks

The EU Commission needs agreement from all 27 to give their negotiating team a mandate
So any objection stops Weyand & the EU trade team even starting

The EU may indeed be under-estimating the degree of self-harm the UK will put itself through before caving in
Or just not care any more.

However, after all this, they are not going to abandon Ireland, or reward the UK for stupidity
-it would risk harming the EU more than a reduction in UK trade would

There is very little that the UK supplies that the EU can't source elsewhere, often within the EU itself
The converse is not true - so the UK would still have to keep buying e.g. food, just at higher prices to cver the additional costs

A25 A24

{But Leclerc - you never actually say how you think this WA will get through. It has to be dead because it's failed 3 times.}

I have no idea, and as some might say it is 'above my pay grade'.
There are others on this thread who can theorise how it might come about but one way or another the HoC and cabinet between them will get it passed eventually.

{The way to approach it is to decide what it is we want and work out a way to get there. With any of the current numpties in government (whoever it is led by) that is impossible as too many people want too many different things.}.
I am not disagreeing, the UK government collectively have had 3 years to work out what the UK wants, and Mr Barnier has commented frequently that the UK needs to decide what it WANTS rather than a whole pile of what it doesn't want.
Whatever the UK ultimately gets will be some version of what is contained within the WA and PD, the WA being the legal process and the PD being how much and when.
The UK is the problem, and the UK has to 'bend' to fit with the EU if it wants to trade with the EU. If the UK decides it wants nothing to do with the EU at all in future, then that is also possible although importing food from anywhere except the EU is going to get very expensive.
I voted remain and I am 'furious' that my wishes have been ignored totally.

mother Those 3 planks of the WA are not shit, just an inevitable consequence of leaving.
Hence why there would be preconditions

The EU would require the Uk to sign up to the updated exit bill,
especially as BJ & much of the ERG have always threatened to use it as a bargaining chip during neotiations

Whatever the future trade deal, the EU will always require an insurance policy - the backstop - in case the UK reneges

and of course they'll require the backstop to be activated before talks begin, in case the UK flounces from the talks
or again, uses Ireland as a hostage, like Patel, Blunt & co want to do

The best UK approach would be to find something to offer Ireland to relax the backstop,
e.g. joint rule, guaranteed 7-yearly referendum

Conspiracy theory shit is tedious.
I don't normally subscribe but there are many interesting 'snippets' of info and what may or may not be coincidences. Farage as a gold trader with Russian connections going back many years and of course although Mr Putin has his own agenda there are many in Russia devising plans to get rich as an activity separate to the Putin 'official' line.
Farage setting up a 'disrupt the EU party' in 2014 and just happening to be mates with some of the more colourful characters in other countries, just a coincidence? It's a bit more than some blokes meeting up at the 'Dog and Parrot' in Hemel Hemstead.

What is very concerning is that each side thinks the other will give in quickly, if No Deal happens

The EU can't and if the Uk won't, then both will suffer, but the Uk 10 times more

*"I don’t believe in those circumstances colleagues would bring down a Conservative Government and let in Jeremy Corbyn, a Marxist"

Given the utter mess Labour is in, the likelihood of Corbyn winning the outright majority he would need to implement his “Marxist” plans is remote.

Incredibly his favourability ratings were even worse than May’s before her departure - quite an achievement.

In the event Labour do form a Government, it would be likely to very much be a minority one, doomed to be short lived if he tries to do anything too Marxist!

Also, if Tories Remainers (of which I am - or rather was - one!) are worried about Corbyn (which I am!) he has a much better chance following a Tory led no-deal Brexit - the “disaster” that his disaster-socialism craves!

"I don’t believe in those circumstances colleagues would bring down a Conservative Government and let in Jeremy Corbyn, a Marxist"

If this isn't a wake up call to Labour, I don't know what is... the whole Tory strategy rests on Corbyn being Labour leader...

the whole Tory strategy rests on Corbyn being Labour leader...

Yes if Corbyn decided to retire to his allotment, and Tom Watson took over, it could be a whole new ball game.

I see it as a problem with out of date information.
There are 6 'camps'.
Tory remain, Tory leave, Labour remain, Labour leave, Libdem remain and 'others'.
We are trying to work with faulty data that is 3 years old and being generous, people were lied too and many did not question or think through the ramifications of actually leaving, and indeed does the UK want to leave completely, or retain useful things like industry.
It should also have been explained at the referendum that as the integration with the EU is so thorough that it would be at least a 5 year 'plan' and not happen overnight.

A decent leader and I would vote Labour in a heartbeat. Even a mediocre but centrist one. This tool? They can fuck off. As flawed as Lib Dems are, and, shit, they are flawed, the get my vote because they aren't led by Corbyn or his type.

Yes if Corbyn decided to retire to his allotment, and Tom Watson took over, it could be a whole new ball game.

Isn't Corbyn their ideal bogeyman though? Labour has little chance of getting a majority in a GE under him. With a better Leader there is more of a possibility that they would win. They would be just as rattled then.

A decent leader and I would vote Labour in a heartbeat

I really couldn't give a shiny shit who the leader is - after all I only have a single vote for my parliamentary candidate (unless they happen to be party leader).

I do care about party policies though. And I am not willing to vote for any candidate who is not unambiguously representing an opposition to Brexit - No motherfucker is going to pull that stunt on me again.

"I don’t believe in those circumstances colleagues would bring down a Conservative Government and let in Jeremy Corbyn, a Marxist"

In the face of a no-deal Brexit Tory remainers (and leavers who see the catastrophe of a no-deal) can either:

a) vote down the Government and give the UK a fighting chance of avoiding no-deal all whilst Corbyn is floundering and enfeebled as his supporters peel off to the BP and LibDems.

b) fail to vote down the Government, accept the catastrophe of a no-deal and made the chances of a Corbyn Government by 2022 far, far greater as those that drifted to the BP and LibDems drift back into his fold..... and utterly destroy any political credibility they had in the process.

You’d have to be a pretty shit political strategist not to see that and fall for the crap Liz Truss et al are telling themselves to soothe their anxieties as they walk towards the cliff edge.

With their effective majority very likely to be down to 2 after the Brecon by-election, it will only take a few Tories... even if a few Labour brexiteers give an inexplicable vote of confidence to Boris to take us over the cliff and govern to 2022.

Labour has little chance of getting a majority in a GE under him.

Has any party a serious chance at a majority ?

Those days are gone. Politicians - especially Tory and Labour - are loath to even contemplate it, as it means that everything they have imagined for the past 50 years is now a dream. They had a chance to try and fix it, or accommodate it in 2012, but ducked it. 2015 was a fluke - the last bright flicker of a candle that has died. If you try and blend all the various points of view that have become more not less entrenched in the past 3 years through a FPTP-MaxiMixer, you are never going to be able to create a stable HoC.

Maybe that's why Corbyn is so obsessed with a General Election ? Not because he thinks or even believes Labour can win a majority. But because it will reinforce the fact that the old way of doing things has gone. Forever. Which he thinks leaves a Socialist Paradise shaped hole in the nation. It won't and it doesn't. But we can all have our follies. Just a shame to take the whole country with you.

And I am not willing to vote for any candidate who is not unambiguously representing an opposition to Brexit

Absolutely. We have to nail this "80% of people voted for parties which supported Brexit."
It has to be 'What mandate? xx% voted for Remain parties."

The problem is the xx bit - as the EU referendum showed, those in the country who are sufficiently bothered are still pretty evenly split. 29 seats to Farage, 29 to Remain parties, with the balance Tory and Labour with their vote probably evening out between them to 50:50.

Has any party a serious chance at a majority ?

Probably not, which is one reason why all this “Tories can’t vote down Government as it will let Corbyn destroy the country with his Marxism” is bollocks.