Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

Bannon is head of The Movement, a far right anti-EU group spreading discord within EU. Also see Breitbart - wants end to equality and far right authoritarian systems. See also the Cambridge Analytica links for the vehicle of social media (big business driven, emotional content etc) and influence in politics.

This works with media showing men as "strong" - ties to BJ and his argument - we can see how it is working in his favour in some areas; largely the right.

Mercer/Kosch bros etc from USA are alongside Bannon in that EU is too difficult to work with for big business and polluters as they have too many regulations.

If EU currency goes down Dollar goes up and with us leaving EU it is argued US now becomes #1 trade bloc again.

Russia also want instability in EU and although may not have directly worked with Bannon/Trump they see how it upsets the status quo and will sow fear and disillusionment in democracy. Ditto with Leave in UK. Takes eyes off them and means EU isn't as strong in war or as a power to trade.

I'm on my way out but there's a few summarised points.

So basically just another form of the old boys club, only global.

Boris❤️

"Johnson is there to ensure that no-one looks too deeply into Hunt's past record and spoils the party"

@Tanith Do you mean the plan all along is for Hunt to be PM? I'm confused.

I do wonder whether the Security services could be the ones to eventually stitch Johnson up.

GCHQ like authoritarianism though.

They've been done by the courts for failing to adhere to humans rights law relating to surveillance.

If the liberal pillars are eroded it makes their job easier because they don't have to comply with law or with media scrutiny over how they are committing abuses of power against the people.

I don't buy into the idea that they will 'save' us. There is self interest in turning a blind eye.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-poll-girlfriend-row-police-hustings-public-opinion-a8970806.html

Boris Johnson's poll leads vanish as loud altercation with partner deals major blow to Tory leadership bid
We can dream....

Red, I think either Hunt or Johnson would suit GCHQ. Hunt might be preferable because he comes across as a bit more sensible but could be just as much of a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Dh and I admitted a guilty secret to each other. Boris wins and completely fucks up an "eminently" fuckupable Brexit. Chickens coming home to roost. But then, as we'd all be fucked at the same time, it's a tricky one to wish for. Good job dh is married to a general prepper, eh?

So why is bannon coming out now to say he did have input re. Johnson?
Is this another self sabotage thing?

I don't get what the guilty secret is Bellini?

Whisky karma for Johnson having to own his shit.

He was the face of the leave campaign and gave them credibility.

I will admit to feeling this too.

However his could take the rest of us down with him.

Motheroffourdragons
We had this 'debate' yesterday and many times previously. You are correct in the sense that the UK does not have to sign the WA. BUT the UK wants to eat and trade in the future (the future being a matter of weeks if the UK were to leave with truly 'No deal') so an airy fairy idea of NOT signing it (assuming the UK is leaving) is not constructive.
The definition of A50 is that there are NO ties between the EU and (the UK) and that every treaty will cease overnight. There is of course self interest on both 'sides' so it is unlikely to be quite so cut and dried. Yes trade can continue but WTO 'basic tariffs' would apply from day 1 and unless the UK can cope with an immediate hike in prices of everything to the tune of something like 10% (as a rough average ) for the duration of several, probably 5 years or so at a time when EU and other country's industry will be pulling out of the UK as it will become uneconomic, the effects will not be pleasant unless you happen to be a millionaire and playing the money markets.
What has not really been discussed is the measures the EU and other countries will take when the UK leaves. They would be likely to cash in on the UK fire sale and rip out anything the think useful as the UK will become a 'third country' competitor. They could for example just close any factories that are not profitable and the likely abandonment of EU laws protecting workers will have gone. While not saying this would happen, it is not impossible.

I think there's a chance things will turn out better for us in the end if Boris wins. Not because Boris is better but because he is so awful it will galvanise parliament into throwing their all into stopping him right away.

Tory rebels won't vote NC on Jeremy Hunt until we are staring down the barrel of imminent no deal (again) which will be too late. Hunt's veneer of competence and respectability will lull mps into thinking they can go back to sleep until October. Boris' utter twattishness walking disaster zone and U.S funding means they'll jump into action right away. The tories have a working majority of three (DUP included - if they would e happy to play ball with Boris) and they had two spoilt ballots in their own leadership election.

I also like the idea of Boris achieving his wish of being PM - only to never be able to gain the confidence of the house and thus becoming the shortest serving PM in British History (world history if they can get that NC vote in quick enough!) The very essence of be careful what you wish for (and make sure that wish is really really specific).

However that is a gamble. If Boris managed to survive as PM we would all be in the shit.

I see!

also like the idea of Boris achieving his wish of being PM - only to never be able to gain the confidence of the house and thus becoming the shortest serving PM in British History

That's the bit I'm looking forward to. JC been a bit quiet recently hasn't he? Will he definitely call a vote of NC do you think?

Lawyers for Britain and Labour Leave agree with GATT 24 link above - just saying.

I’m sure Lawyers for Britain would.

Funnily enough, numerous trade experts and even Liam Fox and the Attorney General don’t.

Lots of hurdles:

The WTO would require an interim agreement to be a deal - this is not “no deal”.

Both the UK and the EU would need to agree it - again this is not “no deal”.

Lorand Bartel’s one page outline interim agreement document doesn’t cover standards and mutual recognitions.

Article XXIV only applies to goods.

Any interim agreement would have to include a plan and timetable for achieving the final agreement. And it would have to have a sufficient amount of detail, including what the final agreement would look like, because the WTO membership could demand changes, if they weren’t convinced that the plan could be achieved within about 10 years. The UK and EU would have to accept those changes or scrap the agreement.

And politically it’s unlikely the EU would even consider an interim agreement without a withdrawal agreement plus backstop as well.

And finally you can read Bartel’s 2009 paper explaining why interim agreements are almost never used.

LonelyTiredandLow
Interesting 'analysis' and likely to have a fair amount of truth behind it, although of course vested interests will prevent the real details coming out for decades.
Brexit is just a convenient side show to much of what Lonely has mentioned and the roots of the scheme go back decades with bits and pieces coming together on occasions, for which Brexit (Cameron's referendum) might have been an 'opportunist lucky break' along the way. Farage playing the 'useful idiot' being an 'in your face' person but concealing his motivations in full view.

DGRossetti Security clearance for MPs and the PM, from what I understand, can be at a pretty low level.

The Cabinet Office confirmed a few years back that exceptions are made for MPs, peers and judges, who do not have to be vetted in order to see restricted information “in the course of their normal duties”.

So in theory you could have a PM that hasn’t undergone the higher levels of vetting that mere mortals have had to undergo to see the same info.

@Whisky2014 , we live in a strong Leave area. We have to keep our mouths shut and we tell our dd to keep quiet about it at school.
So, round here, wishing out loud that the inevitable Brexit fuck up comes even quicker with a Boris victory, is kind of risky.

PigeonofDoom re Germany closing down nuclear power

Business and most political parties initially tried to calm fears and avoid doing this,
but there was such fanaticism / fear among the ordinary voters that it was politically impossible

Nearly every party had to jump on the bandwagon, to avoid massive vote loss

An example of a population that just wouldn't listen to experts, because of feelz
So we're not the only country that's happened to !

Why do people keep saying if we get Johnson then that's the least bad option because he can be stopped? Look at Trump. The US now has concentration camps.

{The US now has concentration camps.}
The UK manages a good line in being unpleasant to those that the Home Office hasn't decided what to do with.

Yep, Trump should have proved to us once and for all:

we can't rely on even the worst behaviour significantly affecting popularity,
let alone forcing someone out of office

.