Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

Really interesting point about potential coalitions post the next GE. Particularly on a Remain coalition delivering a PV. Not sure if this is the answer but for me I can't see any pro-Remain party signing up to a PV where "no deal" is even an option.

Really interesting point about potential coalitions post the next GE. Particularly on a Remain coalition delivering a PV

Why would a remain coalition (I am assuming using that word presupposes a majority ?) waste time and money on a PV ? Just revoke.

After all, Theresa May took votes for Labour to be votes for Brexit, so it's a game two can play at.

You presume correctly, though it's exact composition would be really interesting if there were one.

You are probably spot on there DGR to be fair. I don't think they'd care one whit about a PV once another avenue to overturn the "wrong" result presented itself.

Yet another reason why a GE is more likely Louise.

By the way per Nigel:
"You Gov have released a poll showing the Lib Dems top in the country, with @brexitparty_uk second. They did not have the BP option on the list and we were hidden in ‘others’. Looks like an establishment attempt to suppress the truth."

True, but the referendum question would be starker than before.... no-deal vs remain. If a majority still voted no-deal after all that, then we’ll just have to do it.

If a P.V were to happen after a remain coalition got in - why on earth would the question on the ballot have to be no deal vs remain? Surely the govt of the day could influence the question on the ballot? And they would choose the W.A with a massively softened P.D vs remain. The only brexit on offer would be the softest of soft brexits. If a remain coalition got in, they would be well within their rights to kill any talk of no deal there and then - because they held the majority of seats in parliament, will of the people innit? No appetite for hard brexit. They could deliver on a soft brexit - they would probably prefer to deliver a soft brexit themselves than hand over to a brexit party and end up back where we are now or worse.

I would prefer them to revoke, of course I would, but the I don't understand the logic that a newly elected remain coalition would have to offer a P.V that included no deal - a scenario clearly rejected by the election of a remain coalition.

As to the brexit party finances and tax returns ... for all the murders, gun running and booze smuggling, it was his taxes what did for Al Capone. Nige may come to regret starting up a private business instead of a proper political party.

Bolton, Trump's National Security Advisor, was saying yesterday how much the US was looking forward to negotiating with the UK once it is a fully independent country.

I'm damn sure they are The Americans hate negotiating with the EU because it doesn't say "How high?" when the US says "Jump" An "independent" and desperate UK will be easy to tell what it must accept if it wants to do business with the US

I think no deal vs remain would actually play into the remain side's hands as there are (believe it or not) moderate leavers who REALLY don't want no deal, for whom it's not 'leave at any cost'. However, if that was the choice you'd rely on them being worried enough about no deal to go out to vote against it.

I might just point out that, on the parties current positions, the potential for a purely "Remain" coalition having enough seats to form the next government is pretty small.

Electoral calculus would strongly suggest that without the Labour Party being counted in their column the Remain parties cannot reach 326. Maybe Labour would go straight to Revoke, I don't know, but the electoral maths isn't easy.

Seriously in peacetime is it normal for governments to be sending out surveys to find out to what extent Russia is seen by the people as an economic or military threat?

lonelyplanetmum, YouGov has loads of clients, it is a private polling company. that question could be asked on behalf of lots of different NGOs, thinktanks, academics as well as political parties and or governments. And in fact one survey might have lots of different clients. Maybe I have misunderstood your comments but I don't think it is possible to discern government policy leanings from questions in private polling.

I've linked this RTE podcast before, but this week's episode is really interesting covering how everyone outside the UK is very confused at all this talk about new Tory leaders renegotiating when it is clear to the rest of the world the WA is closed; how Sabine Weyland's new job as EU trade commissioner is not good news for Brexiters (she's actually a details person for a start as opposed to the details guy who doesn't know much about Calais/GFA). Plus a very interesting if depressing and slightly scary interview with Mischaël Modrikamen, aka Bannon's man in Europe. It's a really great, balanced and intelligent podcast for anyone interested in hearing about Brexit in English from a non-UK source.
www.rte.ie/radio1/podcast/podcast_brexitrepublic.xml

At a GE, any Remain coalition should just stand on a Revoke platform, not a PV

If any party - e.g. Labour - is too chiecken- considers a PV politically necessary, then they should put in their manifesto that the 2 options would be Remain vs WA

There would be at least one party in the GE advocating No Deal - the Faragists - and quite possibly an ERG-led Tory party too.

So a GE could cover all Brexit outcomes and no party would end up having to implement a Brexit that it thinks disastrous

Of course, we are likely to end up with a hung Parliament requiring 2 or even 3 parties to come together,
which could mean several months of bickering to decide on a policy

• by that time, we would be several years after the 2016 ref and it might then no longer be of such importance.

Only listened to a few minutes of the podcast but the word 'ouch' comes to mind.Do I also detect a hint of 'glee' in the mistakes the UK is making?

Recent statements by both the Irish government and the v influential foreign affairs committee chairman in the German Parliament
indicate the EU would not grant another extension except for a GE or PV

The leaders of Ireland & Germany, along with the Netherlands and Tusk, were our strongest advocates at the April EUCO, when May requested an extension.

No indication yet if the Netherlands position has also shifted and Tusk of course has no vote at EUCO

However, it looks like either an ERG PM will go for No Deal rather than ask for an extension,
or the govt will have to call either a GE or PV ....

......and the Tories would probably be decimated in a GE, with Labour as the largest party.

That's probably why some Tories like Hammond are now sticking their necks out and suggesting a PV

Jon Stone@joncstone (The Independent)

I'm told that trade wonks in Washington DC have taken to calling the post-Brexit trade deal Donald Trump offered Theresa May

"the United States–United Kingdom Agreement"...

or "USUKA" for short, pronounced "You sucker"

Emily Mansfield@erm3114

Neat chart from @FT showing how the UK's political preferences have become increasingly polarised along Brexit/anti-Brexit lines #EP2019
......
(European Policy Centre, Brussels)
Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg

Even the ‪**@FT‬ keeps getting it wrong:

no deal as advocated by Farage etc is not the same as a hard Brexit, it is far worse.

May's deal is a hard Brexit (exit from SM and CU),
damaging enough but not as catastrophic and with a transition period

Could Labour do as you suggest? I think another referendum would be a matter for the Electoral Commission. Can't see how any party can completely determine the options on the ballot ahead of an election.

Thanks usuallydormant but who would pay to commission those questions? I'd love to know who and why.

and the Tories would probably be decimated in a GE, with Labour as the largest party.

Therein lies the logic flaw in the PH position. The Tories only get decimated in a GE if the don't offer a No Deal. If they offer a No Deal (to beat the Parliamentary Bercow block) according to the YouGov poll they get 22% from BP vote plus 19% from their loyal base. Up against a Labour LibDem split vote which I doubt Labour could re-consolidate even if it went Revoke to outflank the LibDems.

Louise The "phrasing" on a referendum must be agreed by the Electoral Commision,
but the options are decided by Parliament in the referendum bill - because that is a political decision

The Commission would only rule out something impossible or not on offer,
e.g. living 200 years, or a deal that maintains all the EU benefits, but none of the rules - and the EU have to pay us 39 bn

howaout At least Labour and the other parties could - hopefully would - offer a clear GE alternative to No Deal
A mixed message would mean losing

If the electorate then choose to flush the country down the toilet, that is their choice

Yes, Tories could gamble on winning a No Deal GE

• a policy they would have to carry out

.... and then bear total responsibility for the economy going over the cliff
with the UK copying Argentina with a few bad decisions sending a rich developed country spiralling down into permanent basket case

So Hammond may be thinking of the Tory party being permanently annhiliated after this,
After Redwood, JRM and their US billionaire buddies have made their millions / billions of Brexit loot and run off laughing

Disaster Capitalists leave the stage for Disaster Socialists

lonelyplanet It's not that expensive to commission questions and pretty standard across lots of industries - could be Russian companies trying to understand "brand Russia" across different countries, could be a thinktank or NGO interested in EU/Russia relations, could be US based companies, could be YouGov themselves. It is likely to be someone like Pew Research, who commission opinion research worldwide and share the results publicly and have been tracking this kind of question before. www.pewresearch.org/global/2015/06/10/1-nato-public-opinion-wary-of-russia-leary-of-action-on-ukraine/ Just google the question itself and see if it pops up anywhere...

TisI, I think there is a certain amount of schadenfreude in Irish commentary but more because we (like everyone else) assumed that the UK govt and civil was competent and it's still a surprise to realise, they're really not. It is quite bizarre and cringeworthy to hear one potential PM after another waffle on about re negotiations when it is clear to the rest of us across Europe that this is not going to happen, the WA is closed.

The Irish have had to knuckle under for 800 years
This is the first time - because they have the EU on their side - that they have the upper hand over England

Can't blame them for enjoying that aspect of Brexit.

However, they all know Ireland would be by far the worst hit of the E27 by Brexit

The other 450 million in the EU can afford to compensate the 5 million Irish generously, but all Ireland knows it will be a tough few years of transition

I have seen and heard several PV advocates suggesting that Remain v No Deal would be a way to put the question to bed. This is on local Facebook groups, Twitter and I even heard Dominic Grieve saying he was coming round to that way of thinking last week too (I was flabbergasted).
I think that there would be an undercurrent of “we wuz robbed, we want to leave” for years to come, no matter what the “Leave” option on a “version of Leave” v Remain referendum that ends with a Remain result.
IMO, it would have to be current WA+ (amended) PD v Remain, having an option of no-deal would give it the validity it doesn’t deserve.

bigchoc phrasing around Brexit as a whole hasn’t helped.

Take ‘no deal’ or ‘clean break’ sounds easy and decisive a bit like you are in charge.

Stick ‘unplanned’ or ‘uncontrolled’ or indecisive in front of it it’s way less appealing.

It was obvious, but not overdone.
The UK really has laid itself open to worldwide ridicule and as we have been commenting, seem to be the only ones that don't understand the game is largely over. By refusing to acknowledge the WA is closed they are still pouring petrol on the fire and not even thinking of a resolution to the many issues.

{Take ‘no deal’ or ‘clean break’ sounds easy and decisive a bit like you are in charge.}

Like leaving the bar of chocolate in the shop or a Kit Kat with no crumbs.