Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

[RedToothBrush]

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

My MIL has possibly got cancer, but is too old for them to risk more invasive tests. She found that out today. To be fair, I do think she wakes up in the morning and thinks "I'm still here", but I don't think she thinks it's good - it's better than the alternative!

But the Scunthorpe workers, Jamie Oliver's staff? Somehow I doubt it. But still, I expect Clavinova to come along soon and cut and paste something to tell us than 20 jobs have been created here and another 15 there.

Tories consider electoral law to protect MPs if parties overspend

Tories no longer do subtlety
They never did do shame

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/21/tories-draft-law-protect-mps-party-overspend

Exclusive: Critics say move is attempt to avoid prosecution over election campaigning

Conservative ministers are considering a law to protect MPs and party officials from prosecution if their national parties overspend during elections, leaked documents have shown.

The move follows the conviction in January of Marion Littlee^, a Tory party organiser from head office
and the acquittal of the MP Craig Mackinlay
after they were accused of breaking electoral law as the party fought off a challenge from Nigel Farage in Thanet South

In an email sent three weeks ago to Theresa May and the cabinet secretary, Mark Sedwill,
the government outlined plans for a new “test of authorisation” so MPs and election agents were no longer held automatically responsible for resources donated by outside bodies, such as national parties

{20 jobs have been created here and another 15 there.}
Well there is probably a vacancy at No 10 fairly soon, although I think there is a bit of a queue.

vanilla and peregrina

Re the electoral overspends or non declaration - my DH has been an Agent and it's been the devil of a job getting some of the candidates to fill in their expenses forms - so I have some sympathy. This is despite phoning, emailing, calling round to collect forms. It did make him wonder how some of them would have coped had they been elected.

I thought her speech was one of her less robotic ones.
But only tolerable if you didn't listen to the actual content.

'A good time to be alive'

Well, its always good to be alive but, my, what a patronising thing to say

"A good time to be alive." is quite honestly insulting. As well as MIL possibly having cancer, how about the friend's husband who has just been diagnosed with dementia, or another person who is expecting her husband to die at any moment...? I could go on. I doubt if any one of the people involved are doing anything more than living one moment at a time, and telling themselves that this too will pass.

But the Scunthorpe workers, Jamie Oliver's staff?

What I'll never get is why the salt of the earth empire bunting Brexit brigade don't care about this. Jamie- he's 'one of our own' surely?

Jamie aka married into the Sainsbury Family is not a Scunnie Steel worker.

I was not asking about Jamie Oliver himself. I was asking about the Scunthorpe workers who can now look forward to being laid off with precious few other job opportunities in the area. I doubt whether they all happen to be married into wealth.

Oh, I don’t doubt TM has brought a lot upon herself, but I thought the speech as a speech was better. I remember some of her weird election appearances, esp the gurning, & also the coughing speech.
Irrespective of TM, I do think MPs should be locked in a room until they reach a compromise.
I remember in the 1990’s when Richard Holbrook locked the Serbians & Bosnians in a gym or something in Cincinnati-a hellhole- & made them talk to each other.
I would love that- all those pompous-ass MPs in some draughty Nissan hut, no booze, portaloos & camp beds. Do your jobs (expletive)!

Also, am I talking at cross-purposes? Farridge is Mr Brexit, so if the WA is signed, and we have Brexited (I know, I know, it is only the start) then what is his cause?

Well, we won't have Brexitted, or not properly. We will be in a transition state - neither in nor out, which is what Farage will no doubt object to.

Thank you bigchoc and scoobydoo - I’m more angry for the families of people are no longer here.

We would be out of the EU, Brexited, as soon as the WA has been passed

Transition starting Brexit Day was requested by the UK, to avoid falling over the cliff edge during the years negotiating the future relationship

Legally it's a huge difference, with major consequences
We would have left the EU and would have to apply to Rejoin if we wished to become a member again
whereas until we Brexit, we can Revoke any time with a simple letter from the PM and Remain

then what is his cause?

If you listen to what he says his cause is no longer about leaving the EU - it's about restoring democracy apparently.

It's absolutely clear (if you actually follow how his rhetoric evolves) that he wouldn't leave the EU. What the Faragit party is about is getting more £450,000 handouts for Nige. He's a political Katie Hopkins who takes a controversial stance because it's lucrative.

Irrespective of TM, I do think MPs should be locked in a room until they reach a compromise.

I think there is some sense in that. Think back to the GFA or even the founding of the EEC and eventually people have to sit down and decide what they can agree on and move forward. But with the GFA my understanding was

sorry half a message there, posted too soon.

My understanding was that with the GFA both sides had more or less fought to a stand and there would be a pointless war of attrition if they carried on. With the founding of the EU with France and Germany/German states constantly warring over the centuries they again realised that the appalling loss of life and damage was too high a price and they needed to find a new way.

I don't think the UK is at that stage yet. We have those who still believe in the Remnants of the Empire - don't they know who we are. In others, people do not realise what will hit them, if we just crash out. So at the moment, the political will is lacking.

TM really believes that her Withdrawal Agreement is the best that can be done under the circumstances. (And she’s probably right.) That’s why she genuinely sounds passionate about it, and can make a coherent argument. Unfortunately for her, it will persuade relatively few.
Her WA is a good bad Brexit, in the same way you can have a good bad book.

I'd go with that idea, Moanranger. Well, I'd prefer Theresa May to revoke, but that's obviously not going to happen.

Farage doesn't intend to go away & will rant about betrayal whatever happens. His message is lacking in any positive content & seems to be unfalsifiable to those who support him. But passing the WA would certainly take some of the wind out of his sails & limit the damage that he - or more accurately, the tories who are terrified of him & letting him set the agenda - can do.

I do think TM is crap & the context matters - why did she have to leave it so late to show any signs of being conciliatory? Obviously passing the WA is only the start, but it has to be done unless we're going to remain. And I honestly can't see that happening any more.

In any case, what other possible route is there to getting a second referendum than through this vote that TM has offered? I don't actually understand how remain MPs think this is going to be achieved in the current climate, or what they're holding out for. Once TM is gone I don't see where the opportunities are going to be now several of her successors are bragging about how they'd be prepared to no-deal us.

I think I might just have to fuck off to Dignitas.

I've just watched 'Thatcher, A very British Revolution' & almost found myself admiring some of the politicians of that era - given what we have today.

There is no hope left. I can't begin to tell you how much I despised them back in that era & feel all hope has gone now that I watch them & think that they were much better than today's lot.

Sad & very bad times I live in now.

With the GFA didn't George Mitchell bore them into submission? He's still around isn't he? Sadly, no longer Mo Mowlem who I think would take her wig off and people knew she was gonna kick some ass?

I know that George Mitchell was a key person. I didn't know he bored them into submission. Him and grey Mr Major, if spitting image is to be believed, what a pair.

What a pity about Mo Mowlem, such a contrast to the present incumbent.